No, I'm not saying that I'm an exceptionally good investor. What I AM saying is that equities are expected (in the mathematical sense) to deliver a far superior return to bonds and cash. That's true in theory and in practice. There are bumps in the road, of course, but give the probabilities enough time to do their thing and the superior returns will come through. My ARF is invested on the assumption that we could be around for 30 years from my "retirement" nine years ago. That's plenty time for the probabilities to work in my favour.