4% safe withdrawal rate?

SBarrett

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3,126
Fair enough but the CPI is up nearly 50% since 2000 - that's pretty significant.

Also, imputted distributions rise to 5% at 71....

My main point really is that adding a reasonable allocation to Government bonds can increase the risk-adjusted return of an equity heavy portfolio.
My anecdotal evidence doesn't go back that far!! I have worked with 4 different companies since 2000, so have not been able to track the expenditure of the retiree's I looked after back then! :)

And yes, I agree with you on bonds. It's as much about protecting your fund on the downside so it doesn't have to grow by as much to recover. And helps the retirees sleep at night too.


Steven
www.bluewaterfp.ie
 

Colm Fagan

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297
the thread is about real-world safe withdrawals at an individual level?!
Smoothing of investment returns allows the individual to benefit from the pooling of investment risk, so it is very much about real-world safe withdrawals at the individual level.
 

Gordon Gekko

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3,653
I agree with Colm’s broad approach; I just don’t agree with his concentrated approach.

My own approach would be to retain 4% in cash to cover the mandatory drawdown and the rest in global equities.

If the portfolio falls in value, the 4% is a smaller number so I can use the excess cash to buy equities at cheaper levels. If the portfolio rises in value, I can sell to cover the larger drawdown.

Say I pay my QFM 0.75%; over time, I should be fine.
 

WhiteCoat

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67
…...and Eddie Hobbs as Renua MoF decides to buy them all out at commercial annuity terms.
I'm afraid that I can't add anything meaningful to the substantive debate so just a quick aside. Duke of Marmalade's mention of Mr. Hobbs reminded me of an article of his that I happened upon a few weeks ago.

The article is from 2009 in which he makes predictions with an authority that was not justified even back then. His style is akin to a gombeen who figures that speaking in an inappropriately loud manner somehow improves the quality of what's been said. Anyway, at this remove, many of the predictions look very silly indeed - a case of Comical Eddie.

What's more disturbing is that he criticises the management/operation of the GMS scheme when it is patently obvious to me that he literally hadn't a clue about the nature of this scheme.
 

Colm Fagan

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297
I'm afraid that I can't add anything meaningful to the substantive debate so just a quick aside. Duke of Marmalade's mention of Mr. Hobbs reminded me of an article of his that I happened upon a few weeks ago.
The article is from 2009 in which he makes predictions with an authority that was not justified even back then. His style is akin to a gombeen who figures that speaking in an inappropriately loud manner somehow improves the quality of what's been said. Anyway, at this remove, many of the predictions look very silly indeed - a case of Comical Eddie.

What's more disturbing is that he criticises the management/operation of the GMS scheme when it is patently obvious to me that he literally hadn't a clue about the nature of this scheme.
WhiteCoat's decision to revisit Eddie Hobbs' predictions from years back came to mind when I decided recently to publish all my old "Diary of a private investor" articles, going back to September 2015. They can be found at http://www.colmfagan.ie/investments.php
I leave it to readers to decide how they stand the test of time.
PS: I had reason to look at the GMS scheme recently, mainly because it has similarities to my proposals to Government for a smoothed approach to auto-enrolment and the related suggestion for the introduction of smoothed ARF's. Unfortunately, there hasn't been much take-up of either idea. My smoothed pension ideas can be accessed on the same website, at http://www.colmfagan.ie/pensions.php
 

fistophobia

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99
I have experience of the medical sector, consultants in particular, and they are surprisingly clued-in about pensions, and ways around the 2M limitation.
 

Sarenco

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I have experience of the medical sector, consultants in particular, and they are surprisingly clued-in about pensions, and ways around the 2M limitation.
This sounds interesting.

Would you be willing to tell us a little more?
 
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