Media to blame for the recession ?
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Simeon
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Yes, I've read the article and think that it corrects some of the hyped imbalances so dear to the heart of our beloved media. A newspaper is supposed to be a news journal .......... impartial and truthful. If they or the TV mob cannot give out the news without spinning it, their licences should be re-examined. Even the main news is turning out like Giles and Dunphy. And as everyone knows ........ their forecasts are often wildly wrong.
I do in a way blame the media - after all if they tell everyone its grim and that people will stop spending, then they will stop spending, and it becomes a vicious circle.
The upturn will come about the same way. They mention 2010 as the start of it, and it will be mentioned in the media that an improvement is being seen, people will then feel more confident and start spending a bit more, and so everything improves again. After all if the entire world went out NOW and started to spend money then no-one else would lose their jobs as the companies would start making money again etc etc etc.
However what is deniable is that the banks loaned money to those that couldn't afford to repay it, and when this happened on such a massive scale, and the debts were sold off to unwitting buyers then we were always going to get into a mess.
The upturn will come about the same way. They mention 2010 as the start of it, and it will be mentioned in the media that an improvement is being seen, people will then feel more confident and start spending a bit more, and so everything improves again. After all if the entire world went out NOW and started to spend money then no-one else would lose their jobs as the companies would start making money again etc etc etc.
However what is deniable is that the banks loaned money to those that couldn't afford to repay it, and when this happened on such a massive scale, and the debts were sold off to unwitting buyers then we were always going to get into a mess.
perfect example is how RTE Radio news this morning made its main headline
'10 US Banks have been told they still need billions of dollars...following stress tests'
The fact of the matter was 9 out of the 19 banks stress tested were told they were sufficiently capatilised, yet RTE preferred not to mention this small fact!
Both Bank of Ireland and AIB's share prices have risen by huge amounts since the end of April yet we dont hear any major mention of this in the media.
As far as i can see people are looking to the media to tell us good news stories, news of possibile shoots of recovery of the world economy and all the media are doing is continuing their frenzy to report dramatic stories in an effort to scaremonger.
ps- i'm not a banker in case folk think i'm bigging up the banks!
'10 US Banks have been told they still need billions of dollars...following stress tests'
The fact of the matter was 9 out of the 19 banks stress tested were told they were sufficiently capatilised, yet RTE preferred not to mention this small fact!
Both Bank of Ireland and AIB's share prices have risen by huge amounts since the end of April yet we dont hear any major mention of this in the media.
As far as i can see people are looking to the media to tell us good news stories, news of possibile shoots of recovery of the world economy and all the media are doing is continuing their frenzy to report dramatic stories in an effort to scaremonger.
ps- i'm not a banker in case folk think i'm bigging up the banks!
In fairness to RTE, a bank SHOULD pass the stress test so it's not news if it does. Would you be happy with a headline 'Good news today - 9 out of 19 operating theatres in Irish hospitals are NOT rat-infested'? They report what's abnormal, not what is normal. And 9 out of 19 passing the stress-test IS a low %. It's not like it was 10 out of 200 bad with 190 okay - 10 out of 19 bad and 9 out of 19 okay is not a good balance...
given the severe ill-health suffered by US Financial Institutions since the collapse of Lehman and the disasterous knock on effects this has had worldwide, the fact that 9 of the 19 largest have already turned the corner and are capable of being self sufficient is a huge positive not only for the American Financial Market but for the worldwide economy as a whole.
Unless of course you think the whole process was a sham:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/stress-test-cliff-notes.html
Kinda reminds me of the Chris Rock joke. "I take care of my kids - You're SUPPOSED to ...."
No, it's not all in our heads.
David Bloch works in a goal orientated pseudo-sales business. He needs to keep his staff motivated and thinking positively every day. I accept what he says in that context but outside of that, no.
I totally agree with article. We need to move on and start focusing on how to recover. If RTE or TV3 commission one more programme about examining how we got ourselves into this mess...what on earth is the point? We all know what happened! I'd rather they came up with a programme about how to cope with it, what steps to take if you find yourself unemployed, where to go to retrain etc. etc.
Wonderful Article by the way . .
In a word, no, the media arent to blame for the recession, but they have contributed. Sort of like a friend coming to you and saying they might be suicidal, you say "hey everybody feels suicidal mate" and hand them a knife while getting their camera ready to picture you !!
People say you cant talk yourself into recession (which I agree to a degree) but negativity is infectious just like positivity is. The medias job (as stated) is to interpret information the best way they see will get ratings, simple as that. We are programmed to forget this and take what they say as the gospel truth.
If I discuss with them (whether on tv or paper interview) how bad things are and how I see things in the future, if they can find somebody who says things are even worse then what I said, Im dropped for an even bigger bombshell to upset the Irish Public with.
The truth is that its human nature to respond and relate to bad news more then good news. Anybody who watched "the Matrix" and knows agent Smiths comment on how Humans rejected a utopian society knows what im talking about . .
A serious part of the problem at the moment is that people have been scared stiff on their investments (house, pension, savings), their job stability and even the possible survival of our economy.
Up to 85% of us should be able to keep a job, even in the toughest of times, which means its fair to assume that a large amount of these people should be able to sort out some sort of conditions with their mortgage providers to keep their homes. We can talk about how much an impact (huge) 15% unemployment has on the country but if 85% keep their job, then 85% will have some sort of disposable income to put towards a mortgage and perhaps other goods. Living standards will and have dropped, but with home costs and goods costs reducing, eventually when its obvious this disaster has bottomed out, people will return to the shops again. Those who kept their jobs should be similarly better off or even better off spending power wise.
Remember a big part of the problem is that many small business and large business cant get even as little as an overdraft from a bank and therefore cant ride through these rough times. This is one of the huge reasons banks needed to be recaptilised and while none of us wanted to see the banks get bailed out, it wasnt properly reported as being in the national interest (more reported that it was simply FF bailin out their builder friends etc). Im sure more educated AAM members knew this to be unnacurate, but the general public that you talk to do believe that the banks were bailed out unfairly (not understanding the true importance).
Before somebody (I have somebody in mind!!!!) comes in and says Im writing this for my own ends, this is pretty much the opposite to whats being spewed out to the average Joe every day by the media. Its a positive balance to the grossly over negative news being shot at the uneducated general public.
As far as the US is concerned I think its far more positive news then is being stated. 9 Banks appear covered and all the other banks appear to be taking the advice of Bernake and looking for additional funding (which in itself is positive, banks being realistic, haven seen that here yet). Remember stress tests are just that, they work off a worst case scenario so that banks will be ready for the worst (but hope it doesnt come to that). Interesting that banks are alot quicker to respond to the US government then the Irish . . . Just an observation . .
I wondered to myself is it actually possible to have a factually accurate media source that has no political or vested ties to anything, something that simply says, here are the FACTS that we know, here is what they can mean (they can mean a disaster for some economists and they can also mean theres hope on the horizon for others) and letting the reader decide as opposed to telling them what to believe.
I was thinking if I was setting up a paper I would call it "The Honest Irishman". It would have to work off only the facts available to them (which would have to be disclosed ) and give both potential sides to an issue impartially. Interesting to see if it would have a snowballs hope in hell of succeeding as most people in this country still dont want to hear the truth . . . - "Ah sure we wouldnt be in this mess if Bertie were in charge " . . Dear oh dear, the honest Irishman hasnt a hope . .
In a word, no, the media arent to blame for the recession, but they have contributed. Sort of like a friend coming to you and saying they might be suicidal, you say "hey everybody feels suicidal mate" and hand them a knife while getting their camera ready to picture you !!
People say you cant talk yourself into recession (which I agree to a degree) but negativity is infectious just like positivity is. The medias job (as stated) is to interpret information the best way they see will get ratings, simple as that. We are programmed to forget this and take what they say as the gospel truth.
If I discuss with them (whether on tv or paper interview) how bad things are and how I see things in the future, if they can find somebody who says things are even worse then what I said, Im dropped for an even bigger bombshell to upset the Irish Public with.
The truth is that its human nature to respond and relate to bad news more then good news. Anybody who watched "the Matrix" and knows agent Smiths comment on how Humans rejected a utopian society knows what im talking about . .
A serious part of the problem at the moment is that people have been scared stiff on their investments (house, pension, savings), their job stability and even the possible survival of our economy.
Up to 85% of us should be able to keep a job, even in the toughest of times, which means its fair to assume that a large amount of these people should be able to sort out some sort of conditions with their mortgage providers to keep their homes. We can talk about how much an impact (huge) 15% unemployment has on the country but if 85% keep their job, then 85% will have some sort of disposable income to put towards a mortgage and perhaps other goods. Living standards will and have dropped, but with home costs and goods costs reducing, eventually when its obvious this disaster has bottomed out, people will return to the shops again. Those who kept their jobs should be similarly better off or even better off spending power wise.
Remember a big part of the problem is that many small business and large business cant get even as little as an overdraft from a bank and therefore cant ride through these rough times. This is one of the huge reasons banks needed to be recaptilised and while none of us wanted to see the banks get bailed out, it wasnt properly reported as being in the national interest (more reported that it was simply FF bailin out their builder friends etc). Im sure more educated AAM members knew this to be unnacurate, but the general public that you talk to do believe that the banks were bailed out unfairly (not understanding the true importance).
Before somebody (I have somebody in mind!!!!) comes in and says Im writing this for my own ends, this is pretty much the opposite to whats being spewed out to the average Joe every day by the media. Its a positive balance to the grossly over negative news being shot at the uneducated general public.
As far as the US is concerned I think its far more positive news then is being stated. 9 Banks appear covered and all the other banks appear to be taking the advice of Bernake and looking for additional funding (which in itself is positive, banks being realistic, haven seen that here yet). Remember stress tests are just that, they work off a worst case scenario so that banks will be ready for the worst (but hope it doesnt come to that). Interesting that banks are alot quicker to respond to the US government then the Irish . . . Just an observation . .
I wondered to myself is it actually possible to have a factually accurate media source that has no political or vested ties to anything, something that simply says, here are the FACTS that we know, here is what they can mean (they can mean a disaster for some economists and they can also mean theres hope on the horizon for others) and letting the reader decide as opposed to telling them what to believe.
I was thinking if I was setting up a paper I would call it "The Honest Irishman". It would have to work off only the facts available to them (which would have to be disclosed ) and give both potential sides to an issue impartially. Interesting to see if it would have a snowballs hope in hell of succeeding as most people in this country still dont want to hear the truth . . . - "Ah sure we wouldnt be in this mess if Bertie were in charge " . . Dear oh dear, the honest Irishman hasnt a hope . .
S
Simeon
Guest
A bit like saying that there would be no crime in London's East End if Ronnie and Reggie were still performing surgery, osteopathy and business management in their own inimitable style.
Must write that one down . . .
So I take it thats one person who would read my "The honest Irishman" . .
S
Simeon
Guest
YeH!Must write that one down . . .
So I take it thats one person who would read my "The honest Irishman" . .
S
Simeon
Guest
And of Noel Dempsey's own?
YeH!
Better get typing so . . .
I agree with most of what you are all saying. As some of you have pointed out most people want to hear and read bad news. Bad news sells.
I am a contrarian investor and over the last 2-3 years i must have read at least 30-40 contrarian and value investment related books. Most of them have chapters on the hysteria that is created mostly by the media during recessions. Suddenly everybody becomes an economic expert. Articles are written in many cases by journalists who know very little about the subject if anything at all. You will notice also that during each recession the media will always compare the current situation to the great depression.
Bad news peddles magazines, newspapers, books, and advertising through tv etc. RTE for example wants as high a tam rating as possible for its news programs etc etc.
Personally, the media (even though they give me a pain) does me a huge service though when it comes to long term investing. They frighten the life out of people causing them to sell off their assets/shares allowing value investors to pick them up at remarkable prices.
Ill have to buy george lee a pint if i ever see him to thank him for his great service.
I am a contrarian investor and over the last 2-3 years i must have read at least 30-40 contrarian and value investment related books. Most of them have chapters on the hysteria that is created mostly by the media during recessions. Suddenly everybody becomes an economic expert. Articles are written in many cases by journalists who know very little about the subject if anything at all. You will notice also that during each recession the media will always compare the current situation to the great depression.
Bad news peddles magazines, newspapers, books, and advertising through tv etc. RTE for example wants as high a tam rating as possible for its news programs etc etc.
Personally, the media (even though they give me a pain) does me a huge service though when it comes to long term investing. They frighten the life out of people causing them to sell off their assets/shares allowing value investors to pick them up at remarkable prices.
Ill have to buy george lee a pint if i ever see him to thank him for his great service.
UptheDeise
Registered User
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How can the media be blamed for this recession? It's like blaming the media about a horrific train crash because they're hyping it up.
Our economy was nothing more than a house of cards and it was going to come crashing down sooner or later. We had a pyramid scheme in the form of a property bubble, a ponzi scam in the form of a credit bubble and now those bubbles are burst.
In fact, the media when it comes to their business correspondents should have seeing this coming at least 5 years ago. So along with our government, government economic advisors and the opposition, the media needs to take some of the blame as well.
BTW, there's nothing great about our Georgie. True, he saw the housing crash coming but that prediction he made there, was just Georgie looking back over history and repeating what he saw: all housing booms come to an abrupt and devastating halt.
Our economy was nothing more than a house of cards and it was going to come crashing down sooner or later. We had a pyramid scheme in the form of a property bubble, a ponzi scam in the form of a credit bubble and now those bubbles are burst.
In fact, the media when it comes to their business correspondents should have seeing this coming at least 5 years ago. So along with our government, government economic advisors and the opposition, the media needs to take some of the blame as well.
BTW, there's nothing great about our Georgie. True, he saw the housing crash coming but that prediction he made there, was just Georgie looking back over history and repeating what he saw: all housing booms come to an abrupt and devastating halt.
Did you just say you cant blame the media for the recession and then say in your third paragraph that the media needs to take some blame.
I dont think many people are saying that media are soley responsible, more they added fuel to the fire just like they added fuel to the celtic tiger bubble.
Theres a big differance between informing the public for the good of the nation, to trying to sell stories based loosely on factual events and more on personal opinions of these "facts".
Media is a propaganda tool that shapes peoples opinions for its own agenda. Its no coincidence that medias are controlled by dictators because of their sway over public opinion.
You need only switch on Fox news or Sky News to see how powerful media can be in directing a story in the way they want the viewer to interpret it.
UptheDeise
Registered User
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I don't believe the media should take all the blame. What I'm tyring to point out is taht a lot of business folk, economist etc writing for the media didn't see this coming like all the other folk I listed so they have to take SOME of the blame.
There's plenty of newspapers and stations out there to allow people to make their own opinion instead of following the crowd. Incidentally you mentioned Fox News. Did you know that one of the leading investors in America, Peter Schiff often appeared on Fox news warning about the financial crisis since 2006. He was laughed and mocked at.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdVP_sgCETo
Where was our RTE and BBC?
Thank good I listened and pulled back from buying a house at the last moment.