Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[liteweight]

Liteweight you misunderstood my e-mail, I alluded to cold hard facts in the media and marketplace being spotted in this thread weeks before the general public read about or saw it for themselves in the market.. Is the stagnant market enough for you.. Sometimes i Wonder

Let's not tax our brains with all that wondering eh?? The market is not stagnant....whether a yet should be tagged onto that statement remains to be seen! There is certainly evidence (anecdotal and otherwise) that places like Lucan etc. are just not shifting. Auction results showed at least one house which went for 1m over it's guide. Others sold after auction for higher sums. Granted, the results overall were disappointing but the vendors still put up prices after auction. A real test would be to see these houses languishing on the market until next year?

And don't me!!

 

[FGM Doyle]

Liteweight you have a very smug attitude are you an Estate Agent or a Pyramid scheme rookie

 

[bearishbull]

Interesting to see how prices have risen most in high value southside locations. The fact that most auctions have been a washout in September would leave me to question this data.

Also house prices in West Dublin are now in decline in real terms when inflation is taken into account.

Prices can still rise in a slowing market, if a lower volume of houses(usually the better houses sell in a slowing market) are traded at slightly higher prices then average prices rise. These statistics from estate agents and esri don't always tell the full story. At auction 80%approx are'nt selling and loads of houses that did'nt sell at auction in my area are languising on sale by private treaty since early summer. At auction once you have two people with loads of money who both want a trophy home (at any price) prices will be high despite wider market conditions. Auction market is in terrible state despite a couple of big results.

 

[robd]

It's possible to comment here:

Maybe she'll clarify her position - who knows ?

[broken link removed]

I mailed her on this earlier this morning. I have to say I got a prompt, corteous and detailed response clarifying her position. The quote in the IT was shortened. The full quote form the statement is below, which puts it a bit more in context. It makes more sense and she doesn't look so dumb. Seems the times took the bit they wanted.

Given the recent recovery in European markets over the last year, it is difficult to understand why the ECB is continuing with this series of increases. Would it not have been better to allow this growth to sustain
itself rather than inflict further interest rate rises throughout the Eurozone thus threatening heretofore fragile economies?

Also here's a quote from her email which puts her true opinions down.

The fundamental problem there is of course the size of the mortgages that
some people have been granted at a time of historically low interest rates,
and the various causes of the runaway increses in the housing market over
the last decade, an issue that my colleague Eamon GilmoreTD, who is the
Labour Spokesperson on the Environment and Local Government comments on
regularly.

Personally, I think the ECB was well warrented to raise interest rates but that's another point.

BTW, I'm not a Labour fan, I'm an anything but FF.

 

[bearishbull]

I mailed her on this earlier this morning. I have to say I got a prompt, corteous and detailed response clarifying her position. The quote in the IT was shortened. The full quote form the statement is below, which puts it a bit more in context. It makes more sense and she doesn't look so dumb. Seems the times took the bit they wanted.



Personally, I think the ECB was well warrented to raise interest rates but that's another point.

Thats not much better. The ECB's number one priority is to control inflation, growth is very much secondary.

 

[colc1]

There is certainly evidence (anecdotal and otherwise) that places like Lucan etc. are just not shifting.

If places like Lucan arent shifting what hope commuter towns which are further out in Meath, etc? There definitely look dodgy times ahead for the property market!

 

[phoenix_n]

A real test would be to see these houses languishing on the market until next year?

So that we could discuss abandoning the ship after its sank !

 

[Gwynston]

You should be more careful about how your views are shaped. Do your own research is the best method IMO. Last time I checked about 50% of all posts on this thread were by the same 12 people.....all with the same view. How large is the population now??

I don't just take all comments in this "Bear Cave" of a thread as gospel. Obviously there is a majority of ursine-bias which sometimes has to be taken with a pinch of salt. However, that is nothing compared with the truck load of salt you need when talking to the average Joe Soap "Property Magnate" on any street in this country...

What makes this thread essential reading is that it is a great reference to most of the pertinent content on the subject taht's published elsewhere. That is the research I took on board, moreso than just the opinion, (although much of that is well founded and very well reasoned by people with a much better understanding of economics than I).

If not for that, my knowledge of the Irish property boom would be almost completely indoctrinated by my blinkered in-laws and I'd now just be another of the lemmings with a 2nd mortgage subsiding my tenants....

 

[liteweight]

So that we could discuss abandoning the ship after its sank !

Good point Phoenix. Perhaps I should have said 'houses which did not sell in Spring....Autumn....and still languishing. If everyone tries to get off the ship at once, there won't be enough lifeboats and only the strong will survive. The strong aren't necessarily the ones (investors) who rush to jump ship first without analysing all of their options. Panic selling is just as detrimental to the economy as panic buying has been in the past IMO,

 

[soma]

I think Room305 was refering to the R/D and tech elements of the Israeli economy

If you look at my post, you will see that I also note that.

but most of the 6 billion is spent on defense for obvious reasons

We're getting OT here, but that is far too simplistic to attempt to write-off a cash injection that large, as being swallowed by a single industry.

(a) Money pumped into defence obviously finds it's way into other areas of the economy e.g. direct & indirect supporting industries, incomes, the tax take etc.

(b) Because that $6 billion magically appears, Israel does not have to "find" that money from elsewhere in it's budget. Obviously making it easier to divert funds into something like R&D.

Don't get me wrong, I'm always yelling from the rooftops about our paper-tiger economy with no R&D (I was so embarassed by bertie announcing R&D investment a few weeks back as hoping to encourage more foreign companies to come here, instead of seeing it as a strategy to kick start indigenous industry) - bit I think it's unfair to be compared to a state which is essentially bank-rolled and has disproportionate influence - it's simply not a level playing field.

 

[ivuernis]

I was talking only this week to a friend about how the housing market has 'killed' the social scene in Ireland. So many of my friends and siblings 'retire' to the west of Dublin after work and it is rarely that they spend anytime anymore in the city during the week. It was even more apparent after the Cohen show at the point that my mates had to find taxis to bring them to the outreaches of Dublin whereas a couple of us could walk home. Whereas a few of us can catch the latest indie movie at the ifc after work for most a trip to the cinema requires planning not too dissimilar to a mini work project.

I agree. I live in Cork and the experience is much the same, even though Cork is a much smaller city and a taxi to most outlying suburbs is max €15 and €20 to most satellite towns the dispersion due to house buying has resulted in my group of friends meeting up at best once a week (almost always at weekends). No more the mid-week pint or movie, neither the stroll back to someone's house at the w/e after a night out. Now it's all a panic to beat the rush to get a taxi to the suburbs. We are destroying the social fabric of our cities with the lack of considered developments in the centre of cities and the sprawl of the suburbs.

 

[phoenix_n]

The number of homes in my area (glasnevin) for sale on myhome has increased from 40 in july to 50 in early september to 82 now in early october, it has increased by around 50% in 3 weeks. Myhome is'nt growing as rapidly as daft so the increase is more likely a result of increased inventory than increased popularity of myhome. I don't know what equivalent number for sale was last year but i don't recall it being so high.

6 of those 82 are apts in premier square which is going to take a hammering in the next few months. Like watching a ship sink.

Good point Phoenix. Perhaps I should have said 'houses which did not sell in Spring....Autumn....and still languishing. If everyone tries to get off the ship at once, there won't be enough lifeboats and only the strong will survive. The strong aren't necessarily the ones (investors) who rush to jump ship first without analysing all of their options. Panic selling is just as detrimental to the economy as panic buying has been in the past IMO,

Cheers for seeing the funny side of my post.

 

[SteelBlue05]

I agree. I live in Cork and the experience is much the same, even though Cork is a much smaller city and a taxi to most outlying suburbs is max €15 and €20 to most satellite towns the dispersion due to house buying has resulted in my group of friends meeting up at best once a week (almost always at weekends). No more the mid-week pint or movie, neither the stroll back to someone's house at the w/e after a night out. Now it's all a panic to beat the rush to get a taxi to the suburbs. We are destroying the social fabric of our cities with the lack of considered developments in the centre of cities and the sprawl of the suburbs.

In Dublin anyways the problem is the concentration of business\industry into the centre. This should have been moved to other regions of Ireland over a period of time.

 

[Bedsit]

[broken link removed]

"... The review - which is commissioned by the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government - estimates the value of construction output in 2005 was €31.5 billion representing 23 per cent of total GNP.

Direct employment in the sector has now reached an unprecedented high of 264,300 workers.

... Minister for Environment Dick Roche said the current high levels of employment and activity in the sector would continue.

"House-building will continue to perform strongly for the foreseeable future underpinned by a strong economy, changing demographics and strong net inward migration." ..."

 

[soma]

... Minister for Environment Dick Roche said the current high levels of employment and activity in the sector would continue.

"House-building will continue to perform strongly for the foreseeable future underpinned by a strong economy, changing demographics and strong net inward migration." ..."

I wonder does Minister Roche have any relatives in Iraq... who used to work for the goverment..

 

[StoppedClock]

[broken link removed]

"... The review - which is commissioned by the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government - estimates the value of construction output in 2005 was €31.5 billion representing 23 per cent of total GNP.

Direct employment in the sector has now reached an unprecedented high of 264,300 workers.

... Minister for Environment Dick Roche said the current high levels of employment and activity in the sector would continue.

"House-building will continue to perform strongly for the foreseeable future underpinned by a strong economy, changing demographics and strong net inward migration." ..."

House-building will continue to perform strongly for the foreseeable future underpinned by a strong economy and that the economy will continue to perform strongly for the foreseeable future underpinned by strong House-building.
He also added that House-building will grow for the foreseeable future as a result of the strong economy which will become boomier because of strong growth in House-building.

He concluded that ...

 

[Remix]

I mailed her on this earlier this morning. I have to say I got a prompt, corteous and detailed response clarifying her position. The quote in the IT was shortened. The full quote form the statement is below, which puts it a bit more in context. It makes more sense and she doesn't look so dumb. Seems the times took the bit they wanted.



Also here's a quote from her email which puts her true opinions down.


Personally, I think the ECB was well warrented to raise interest rates but that's another point.

BTW, I'm not a Labour fan, I'm an anything but FF.

Good one Robd. After that Irish Times quote making her look so stupid, I thought she might at least deserve a second chance from the AAM commentators. She has been critical of the housing market and lenders in the past and as we know these two are important to the Irish Times business.

(p.s. I'm not a Labour fan either)

 

[conor_mc]

House-building will continue to perform strongly for the foreseeable future underpinned by a strong economy and that the economy will continue to perform strongly for the foreseeable future underpinned by strong House-building.
He also added that House-building will grow for the foreseeable future as a result of the strong economy which will become boomier because of strong growth in House-building.

He concluded that ...

LMAO!!!!

Almost worthy of the great Rumsfeld himself!!!

 

[darex]

You should be more careful about how your views are shaped. Do your own research is the best method IMO. Last time I checked about 50% of all posts on this thread were by the same 12 people.....all with the same view. How large is the population now??

Liteweight the value in the argument is what counts not the number of people making it. If one lemming says there is a cliff ahead and stops while all the others tumble over - who do you listen to?

 

[SHARP]

I agree. I live in Cork and the experience is much the same, even though Cork is a much smaller city and a taxi to most outlying suburbs is max €15 and €20 to most satellite towns the dispersion due to house buying has resulted in my group of friends meeting up at best once a week (almost always at weekends). No more the mid-week pint or movie, neither the stroll back to someone's house at the w/e after a night out. Now it's all a panic to beat the rush to get a taxi to the suburbs. We are destroying the social fabric of our cities with the lack of considered developments in the centre of cities and the sprawl of the suburbs.

Originally Posted by phoenix_n http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=291411#post291411
I was talking only this week to a friend about how the housing market has 'killed' the social scene in Ireland. So many of my friends and siblings 'retire' to the west of Dublin after work and it is rarely that they spend anytime anymore in the city during the week. It was even more apparent after the Cohen show at the point that my mates had to find taxis to bring them to the outreaches of Dublin whereas a couple of us could walk home. Whereas a few of us can catch the latest indie movie at the ifc after work for most a trip to the cinema requires planning not too dissimilar to a mini work project.

I understand where you are coming from, but you also should take into account when people buy new homes, they are settling down and the "pints after work" culture ceases to exist.

There is also the fact of no drink driving that comes into the equation. A person who is single and in their early twenties will always have time to go for a drink after work, and socialise more than a person in their early 30's who have bought a house, are married/attached.