hooray - a bullish post!
or three!
doesnt convince me though
I too have literally bet my PPR on a crash
well done 'blindjustice' welcome to the club ! -
- Status
M
miju
Guest
i agree, so much so that i've actually applied for the civil service and i'll be taking a 3k per annum pay cut to do so
so while i don't own a property that's effectively this bear putting his money where his mouth his
Had the same thought. How stupid is this comment, we have as much to fear from a change in govt and we do from current bunch.
Also Jim O Leary had an interesting article in IT where he says alot of optimistic forecasts ( Davys etc) for 2007 but also majority of forecasts for 2008 are of a big slowdown. He thinks with 2008 slowdown looming many companies will slow down investment rate in 2007 hence impacting that years outcome negatively.
Last edited:
P
phoenix_n
Guest
Heard Nick Gleeson is doing a piece in the sbpost this sunday on the Irish property market. May make for an interesting piece.
G
Gwynston
Guest
Do I count as a bear for convincing my wife NOT to buy an investment property?
We already have a family home, but when our SSIAs matured this summer, she wanted to jump in and buy a 3-bed semi in a new development with our SSIA money plus a 92% mortgage. Of course, everyone she knows is doing it, including immediate family - it's a "sure thing"! That was about when this thread started and after dicussions with a mate in England who hangs out at HPC.co.uk, I started feeling rather uncomfortable about the whole idea.
I grew up in England, and moved to Ireland with my Galway girl in 2000, and we bought a large 4-bed house on half-an-acre in the country 4.5 years ago. I worked out that with our SSIAs plus other savings, we could pay off what's left of our mortgage. So, after doing some research (well, reading this thread...
) I tried to convince my wife the market was near the top and it was the wrong time to buy.Well you can imagine the incredulity and ignorance and sheer blinkeredness I faced from her and all the in-laws! As an "outsider" I simply couldn't know "how things work in Ireland". I certainly didn't know how crazy the property boom has made everyone!
Anyway, I finally brought my wife round to my way of thinking (thank you all), and can sleep contented at night with my young family knowing that we have a fully paid up house and regular savings going into something rather more safe than Irish property.
Does that make me a bear for bucking the trend?
Wonder if I could convince the wife to sell up now, make a handsome profit and go rent cheaply....
P
plaudit
Guest
I worked out that with our SSIAs plus other savings, we could pay off what's left of our mortgage. So, after doing some research (well, reading this thread...
If you invest your SSIA in a pension, tax relief alone will give a much better return that buying an investment property at the moment IMO.
Well Soma - I've been looking at the property bubble here for a long time now and find it very hard to come up with rational sound economic reasons for the sheer scale of it and the fact that it has shot up to stratosphere at precisely the time that the originators of the Celtic tiger - the export economy has slowed. when you look at relative poverty of what we export - a tiny amount of it is unique to Ireland , most of it is foreign owned and with increasing globalisation it is relatively easy to up sticks and get the manuals printed in the language of your chosen low-cost labour destination and move. - in fact I just concluded several of those deals in the Czech republic and Slovenia last week - thats X millions that would previously have gone into Ireland over a 5 year period will now go elsewhere. I take your point about the US" having your own property written into the constitution - ok being a tad sarcastic there" vis a vis Ireland - we are not alone - but, but, there really is an fixation ,unparalleled in the rest of Europe with us and property - I have travelled and lived abroad quite extensively and so I feel I can compare .
the point I was trying to make is that people are quite prepared to go without a hell of a lot before they will give up that dream - the friday afterwork few beers office gang has dwindled recently - Half of them have recently purchased their little piece of Ireland in Suburbia - which now extends to the aran islands as far as I can make out - I know that they are all up to their proverbials in debt and that drinkies with the boys and girls , who rent and live in town ,like me . are out - small sacrifice to make to able to sneer at the "hippies" like myself who are still only renting - as I was trying to explain you can not underestimate the degree of social snobbery, social climbing and being able to be part of the "upscale herd" that is driving the property bubble.
This mentality which has always been here , only difference is more money (or accurately easy credit) has allowed more people to indulge in the fantasy - we just didn't have the cash before. This mentality ,combined with the incremental rate rises will not disturb the market massively in the short term - for every one person who calls it a day and pulls out - there are 2 more looking for the opportunity to get in - the current lull , I think , is due to a lot of people catching their breath and seeing what the Gov will do in the budget (Bertie is pretty good with Gifts and the like so they wont be dissappointed) and then it will continue until after the next election , which is when I feel a perfect storm will be starting to appear - US recession, higher Euro rates, massive supply in housing , no more ssia money - jobs losses due to eroding competitiveness, farm incomes will be radically reduced. - once it turns it could be a slow downward slide with quite a few dead cat bounces on the way down - the property fixation means that folks will give up their first born rather than the keys to that semi 3 D - while Americans have the same property fixation - they also have the ability and the history to call time, hand in the keys load up the U Renter and drive to another part of that vast country to start again - That will be a new experience for many here and will accepted extremely reluctantly.
.
I think Room305 was refering to the R/D and tech elements of the Israeli economy - something which is non existent on the same scale here. Im not going to get into to politics of the area - Im probably closer to your side Soma than you think - but most of the 6 billion is spent on defense for obvious reasons
Last edited:
F
FGM Doyle
Guest
Interesting post Gwynston, It reflects alot what I feel about the property boom, I followed this thread since its inception, I have found it has shaped my view on the sheer fragility of the property game, and its kind of exciting watching the sentiments of this thread spread on to the media and indeed the market place, during July and August I felt somehow like a insider in the know while the huddled mass saw no end to the boom.. Its almost popular opinion now that the end is close, even if those in the media with hidden agendas remain bullish, The cat is out we know..
and i think its only a matter of time before the in-laws agree with you Gwynston.
and i think its only a matter of time before the in-laws agree with you Gwynston.
M
Miles
Guest
In fairness everything she states on her website is not far from the truth. There are a lot of familys stretched to their limits by recent increases.
Not everyone are property speculators. Lets not forget the human aspect in these discussions and I think this is whats shes driving at.
Not everyone are property speculators. Lets not forget the human aspect in these discussions and I think this is whats shes driving at.
bearishbull
Registered User
- Messages
- 207
The number of homes in my area (glasnevin) for sale on myhome has increased from 40 in july to 50 in early september to 82 now in early october, it has increased by around 50% in 3 weeks. Myhome is'nt growing as rapidly as daft so the increase is more likely a result of increased inventory than increased popularity of myhome. I don't know what equivalent number for sale was last year but i don't recall it being so high.
It will benefit ireland Inc now if interest rates go to 3.75 or 4% otherwise the debt mountain will go up. bubbles are best burst at any time. To allow them to get bigger is no good for all but a very small minority. Joan should know this
Last edited:
S
Sidewinder
Guest
Oh, highlighting the human aspect and lambasting this government for condemning a whole generation to a lifetime of grinding debt-ridden negative-equity suburban wage-slave hell: that I've no problem with at all, and it's long past time somebody started shouting from the rooftops to try and snap the country out of this mass hypnotism.
The comment about the ECB rates was quite staggeringly ill-informed and economically illiterate though, from someone who wants to be Finance Minister. That's the scary bit!
liteweight
Registered User
- Messages
- 1,678
You should be more careful about how your views are shaped. Do your own research is the best method IMO. Last time I checked about 50% of all posts on this thread were by the same 12 people.....all with the same view. How large is the population now??
P
phoenix_n
Guest
Good post. I'd like to comment on the above. I was talking only this week to a friend about how the housing market has 'killed' the social scene in Ireland. So many of my friends and siblings 'retire' to the west of Dublin after work and it is rarely that they spend anytime anymore in the city during the week. It was even more apparent after the Cohen show at the point that my mates had to find taxis to bring them to the outreaches of Dublin whereas a couple of us could walk home. Whereas a few of us can catch the latest indie movie at the ifc after work for most a trip to the cinema requires planning not too dissimilar to a mini work project.
That's why with the bubble bursting it will cause pain but with it a new way of living will be born. (My Fridays poetic ending)
F
FGM Doyle
Guest
Liteweight you misunderstood my e-mail, I alluded to cold hard facts in the media and marketplace being spotted in this thread weeks before the general public read about or saw it for themselves in the market.. Is the stagnant market enough for you.. Sometimes i Wonder
I have to agree, I work in Electronics in Ireland and we have more and more Israeli customers all the time, they were at the same point as us in the mid 1990s but now seem to be lightyears ahead with people I know describing it as being like Silicon Valley in the 80s/90s. So while they are building companies that have IPOs etc, we are doing nothing in that sphere.
sandymount
Registered User
- Messages
- 65
Interesting to see how prices have risen most in high value southside locations. The fact that most auctions have been a washout in September would leave me to question this data.
Also house prices in West Dublin are now in decline in real terms when inflation is taken into account.
- Status