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walk2dewater
Guest
Spot on. Except for "beneficial" I'd use "absolutely essential". Trichet et al WILL get their 'price stability'.
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blindjustice
Guest
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=52108176&postcount=822
good post from boards.ie
the list could be updated and maybe the bulls could have their own one or we should make two lists for and against
good post from boards.ie
the list could be updated and maybe the bulls could have their own one or we should make two lists for and against
The only statistic I've come across that would support a continuing bull run in property is that we are beneath the EU average ratio of people:houses. Other than that, the stats are stacked in favour of the bears as far as I can see.
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asdef
Guest
Have the property gurus really got it right?
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=36&si=1702104&issue_id=14741
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=36&si=1702104&issue_id=14741
And how much of that is centered on the construction industry?
*cough* Really? From an article last year in the Indo, http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1469805&issue_id=13008:
One more quote from today's article (by ESRI economist David Duffy):
No comment on that one...
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phoenix_n
Guest
Terrace in phibs reduced from [broken link removed] to [broken link removed]
As the banks and agents are happy to 'advise' buyers that the property market will continue to inflate in the coming years; I have a suggestion for anyone wishing to enter the market, who is skeptical about the sincerity of their forecasts.
Get your bank and the selling agent to put in writing that the value of the house you are buying will not fall in nominal or real terms over the next five years. Ask them to agree to reimburse you the difference between the current price and the market value in five years time (if prices fall).
If they (banks and agents) are sincere in their prognostications they will be happy to enter into a binding agreement.
Get your bank and the selling agent to put in writing that the value of the house you are buying will not fall in nominal or real terms over the next five years. Ask them to agree to reimburse you the difference between the current price and the market value in five years time (if prices fall).
If they (banks and agents) are sincere in their prognostications they will be happy to enter into a binding agreement.
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blindjustice
Guest
some speculation:
what about our low unemployment levels put aside the fact so many are employed in the construction industry. we are still under the eu average for houses per population arent we? when are we due to meet that level?
could an influx of people from the new EU member states somehow help this level off? i think we have enough eejits in the country to keep buying once they can just about afford it.so in theory could it level off ? in theory communism works. we are surely on the edge
what do people think is the biggest threat to house prices?
Interest rates, or a slowdown in building causing job losses? Job losses in multinationals? etc etc if you were to say the latter you could argue that a crash wont be for awhile yet, if you were to say interest rate hikes have destroyed sentiment in FTBs then you could argue that the bottom has gone now and the New Year will dawn a brave new world
what about our low unemployment levels put aside the fact so many are employed in the construction industry. we are still under the eu average for houses per population arent we? when are we due to meet that level?
could an influx of people from the new EU member states somehow help this level off? i think we have enough eejits in the country to keep buying once they can just about afford it.so in theory could it level off ? in theory communism works. we are surely on the edge
what do people think is the biggest threat to house prices?
Interest rates, or a slowdown in building causing job losses? Job losses in multinationals? etc etc if you were to say the latter you could argue that a crash wont be for awhile yet, if you were to say interest rate hikes have destroyed sentiment in FTBs then you could argue that the bottom has gone now and the New Year will dawn a brave new world
We would have to continue to build more houses than we need and take on more debt than we can afford to sustain the current bubble. Sustainable economic growth is built on increased productivity not increasing indebtedness.
bearishbull
Registered User
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A house on my road went on sale by private treaty this week and had an open viewing today. Only about 4 couples viewed it during the hour long session and the "poor" estate agent was standing idly at the front door waiting to greet the very few viewers. The same house sold by private treaty in early 05 and there were dozens of people viewing each evening that there was a viewing.
bearishbull
Registered User
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Biggest threats? Investors cashing in when capital appreciation becomes sub inflation level, and debt, debt cant keep growing at the current rate and peoples borrowing capacity is being reduced and confidence drained by every interest rate rise. Even if prices remained flat for next ten years and mortgage/debt levels continued growing at a slower rate of 20% then after around ten years mortgages would equal or exceed the value of all residential property!
New build buyers will be in negative equity before second hand buyers?
In a stagnant market, if a new build buyer has to sell for whatever reason, they need to drop the price below their purchase price to compensate the purchaser for stamp duty on second hand property.
Am I right in thinking that many buyers of new developments over the past few months (100% or high LTV mortgages) will be in negative equity as soon as they sign their contract? To sell, they have to compete with the developer .... but people buying from the developer don't have to pay stamp duty so the private seller has to sell at a loss to compete.
Immediate Negative Equity
In a stagnant market, if a new build buyer has to sell for whatever reason, they need to drop the price below their purchase price to compensate the purchaser for stamp duty on second hand property.
Am I right in thinking that many buyers of new developments over the past few months (100% or high LTV mortgages) will be in negative equity as soon as they sign their contract? To sell, they have to compete with the developer .... but people buying from the developer don't have to pay stamp duty so the private seller has to sell at a loss to compete.
Immediate Negative Equity
Am curious - am noting that these are 2 different agents. Could some of this drop be explained by different pricing strategies adopted by different agents? Also unless I am mistaken its not possible to see the dates that the two ads were posted on.
New build buyers will be in negative equity before second hand buyers?
In a stagnant market, if a new build buyer has to sell for whatever reason, they need to drop the price below their purchase price to compensate the purchaser for stamp duty on second hand property.
Am I right in thinking that many buyers of new developments over the past few months (100% or high LTV mortgages) will be in negative equity as soon as they sign their contract? To sell, they have to compete with the developer .... but people buying from the developer don't have to pay stamp duty so the private seller has to sell at a loss to compete.
Immediate Negative Equity
I think you are right. I expect many new builds to come down in price as many of these builders bought the land many years ago when land wasn't as expensive as it is today.
I find it incredible that the economist from the ESRI is telling one and all that anyone who buys now won't be in negative equity next year. He doesn't even work for a bank...
bearishbull
Registered User
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I think you are right. I expect many new builds to come down in price as many of these builders bought the land many years ago when land wasn't as expensive as it is today.
I find it incredible that the economist from the ESRI is telling one and all that anyone who buys now won't be in negative equity next year. He doesn't even work for a bank...
With house prices falling in some parts of country already i dont know how he can seriously say that. Although he did say "unlikely", maybe the esri dont wanna be called doom merchants etc.
Aren't they meant to be impartial? It's like Bertie's interjection into the debate a few months ago. At least he is probably too busy saving his own skin to make any more forays into the debate
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phoenix_n
Guest
Actually both properties feature on myhome at different prices but different descriptions and diff number of rooms. Daft shows 525 as the price but can not be sure if 630 was the actual original....
Suspect that vendor changed agent (gwd to hok) and the original (630) is stil showing.
..update...
yep here it is on gwd site....at price 630
16% drop in asking price.
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phoenix_n
Guest
BTW.
Expect sentiment to change even further with tomorrows article by Nick Gleeson in the sbpost.
Expect sentiment to change even further with tomorrows article by Nick Gleeson in the sbpost.
That's a hefty drop.
Prices for these ex-corpo houses in Drumcondra are falling also - they used to be very popular with the buy-to-let brigade.
Old Price €550,000
New Price €500,000
[broken link removed]=
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