The UK situation is in many (or at least some) ways similar to Ireland and despite BOE base rates of 4.75% there has been no collapse. It may take an external shock to Ireland to finally push the market over the edge, otherwise it may simply continue for a long period with lower or no price increases and lower levels of activity in the market. A major crash can really only happen with a major increase in unemployment and its not easy that easy for me to see that in the short term.
I am bearish overall in the medium to long term, but I don’t think anybody should dismiss Rico's comments out of hand. The UK situation is in many (or at least some) ways similar to Ireland and despite BOE base rates of 4.75% there has been no collapse. It may take an external shock to Ireland to finally push the market over the edge, otherwise it may simply continue for a long period with lower or no price increases and lower levels of activity in the market. A major crash can really only happen with a major increase in unemployment and its not easy that easy for me to see that in the short term.
In the medium term lower levels of construction will lead to a reduction in those employed in that industry but as a lot of those people are immigrants who rent I cant see that effecting demand for housing. Investors have already shown themselves more than willing to put up with 1.5% - 2.0% returns provided they own asset they believe will appreciate in the long run.
IMO we are looking at a long slow deflation of the bubble rather than a pop. Sorry for those who were looking forward to gloating over their home owning friends/collegues but this isnt going to be so clear cut.
UK situation is completely different. Irish bubble is far more inflated. Also the lowest point for UK interest rates was 3.5% and even then only for 5 months in 2003. Euro rates were at 2% for two and a half years between July 2003 and Dec 2005 - and interest rate increases are proportionally far larger than the UK.The UK situation is in many (or at least some) ways similar to Ireland and despite BOE base rates of 4.75% there has been no collapse.
Agreed, I think will be slow but relentless. Probably take a few years for the crash to play out. Japan took quite a while.IMO we are looking at a long slow deflation of the bubble rather than a pop. Sorry for those who were looking forward to gloating over their home owning friends/collegues but this isnt going to be so clear cut.
I am bearish overall in the medium to long term, but I don’t think anybody should dismiss Rico's comments out of hand. The UK situation is in many (or at least some) ways similar to Ireland and despite BOE base rates of 4.75% there has been no collapse. It may take an external shock to Ireland to finally push the market over the edge, otherwise it may simply continue for a long period with lower or no price increases and lower levels of activity in the market. A major crash can really only happen with a major increase in unemployment and its not easy that easy for me to see that in the short term.
In the medium term lower levels of construction will lead to a reduction in those employed in that industry but as a lot of those people are immigrants who rent I cant see that effecting demand for housing. Investors have already shown themselves more than willing to put up with 1.5% - 2.0% returns provided they own asset they believe will appreciate in the long run.
IMO we are looking at a long slow deflation of the bubble rather than a pop. Sorry for those who were looking forward to gloating over their home owning friends/collegues but this isnt going to be so clear cut.
Trichet is primarily worried about Germany and France. We're a rounding error, let's face it. If we get hung out to dry, they won't care.
d) Property has always had strongest attraction to Irish people and homeownership and improving/trading up activity will continue.
so far we have discovered 4 real bears, who sold within 1 year period and now renting.
also 1 or 2 who sold in last couple of years for multiple reasons, including travel, going abroad etc etc and dint buy on their return, so i guess we can call them half real bears.
any more? there should be lot more here seeing peoples sentiment here in general.
Absolutely not. At least they won't lose their construction-related jobs! It'll be Paddy the Plasterer (not that one!) and Brenda the Bank-Employee who'll be hit worst.
Let's speculate:
- Flipper/short term speculator: Are in trouble now, trying to get out and may be able to lock in profits if you sell quickly.
- Investor, rent covers mortgage, good yield (bought in 1998): You may have trouble finding renters, but you should emerge ok
- Investor, subsidising rent: Screwed when prices start falling. Can't afford to sell and can't afford to subsidise the rent.
- Home owner, bought in area they like living, 2006, can afford mortgage: You'll survive, but some of your neighbours will be paying half the mortgage you have to pay for the same type of property.
- Home owner, bought to "get on ladder" - can afford mortgage, don't like area: You're going to be stuck there for 10-15 years.
interesting...
no speculation on people like myself(and probable like yourself) who dont own? i guess we will be picking properties at 50% discount soon, right?
looks like everyone is in trouble except ppl like u and me, smart aint we lol
I don't have a house and have no intention of buying, does that not make me a bear.and rest are either hiding or have nothing more to show apart from their opinions.
I don't have a house and have no intention of buying, does that not make me a bear.
[broken link removed] one goes for auction tomorrow, close to the Bushy park apartment above, lets see how it goes!
Three Bulls on newstalk this morning all spoke of Price correction or soft landing, very keen not to mention crash..Bad time for investors never a bad time for buying to live in..Changing of stamp duty was also mentioned, the average punter will hold out signing contracts till after the budget.
.
Labour Party finance spokeswoman Joan Burton criticised yesterday's decision as unnecessary.
"Given the recent recovery in European markets over the last year, it is difficult to understand why the ECB is continuing with this series of increases," she said.