Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[StoppedClock]

I thought the same too. A lot in the IT today.Is this a time of the year when new builds are planned to arrive on the market?

Not sure whether they were planned to or whether they are dumping them but Hooke McDonald have never had as many launches

 

[robd]

Incredible amount the the IT's supplement today. Does anyone know if they are priced more cheaply than other ones to be released, say 6 months ago?

The Metro had 3 full pages ads for new builds today. Don't remember seeing new build ads here before.

 

[hmmm]

There was a piece on the News at 1 about the ECB hike, with the usual vox pop. It was amazing how many people interviewed were fretting about their siblings "never will be able to get on the property ladder" (in Irish lala land prices will keep going up even if no-one can afford to buy). It would be foolish to underestimate how much stupid money is still out there which doesn't understand basic economics.

 

[bearishbull]

There was a piece on the News at 1 about the ECB hike, with the usual vox pop. It was amazing how many people interviewed were fretting about their siblings "never will be able to get on the property ladder" (in Irish lala land prices will keep going up even if no-one can afford to buy). It would be foolish to underestimate how much stupid money is still out there which doesn't understand basic economics.

Yeah i heard the women saying "i fear my children will be never able to get on the "Ladder" " , people dont realise that once enough FTB's are priced out the bottom rung of the ladders ends and the market has to correct, they also fail to consider supply/demand and role incomes and rents have indetermining prices, they just see prices rising for last 20+ years(in nominal terms, i know prices fell in real terms at least once in last 20 years) and assume when my children are 15-20 years older they wont be able to buy. If theres no buyers(or drastically reduced number of buyers due to affordability) then prices HAVE to drop.

 

[walk2dewater]

Yeah i heard the women saying "i fear my children will be never able to get on the "Ladder" " , people dont realise that once enough FTB's are priced out the bottom rung of the ladders ends and the market has to correct, they also fail to consider supply/demand and role incomes and rents have indetermining prices, they just see prices rising for last 20+ years(in nominal terms, i know prices fell in real terms at least once in last 20 years) and assume when my children are 15-20 years older they wont be able to buy. If theres no buyers(or drastically reduced number of buyers due to affordability) then prices HAVE to drop.

Another classic is, “Prices can’t crash”, because, “where will people live?”...

[Sometimes I feel like I live in a parallel universe in this country]

 

[conor_mc]

Another classic is, “Prices can’t crash”, because, “where will people live?”...

[Sometimes I feel like I like in a parallel universe in this country]

Welcome to the land of the amateur property expert.

Whatever you say about us bears on this thread, at least we've taken the time to educate ourselves about the current situation and how it might play out compared with other property bubbles throughout history.

Most people just assume that people with money (property developers, investors, EA's, banks) MUST know better than they do themselves, which is why these people can continue to con the masses.

 

[whathome]

Another classic is, “Prices can’t crash”, because, “where will people live?”...

[Sometimes I feel like I like in a parallel universe in this country]

And another brainless comment I heard recently:

"We're so glad we bought in the spring. The bank wouldn't let us borrow nearly as much now after the interest rate hikes."

 

[FGM Doyle]

So Basically the average Jimmy Garda and Mary Nurse who bought into the property pyramid are going to be worse effected..

 

[FGM Doyle]

For anyone out there who has a grudging dislike for EA's, now is the time to test their mettle, try a house in Lucan 3 bed semi-d.. ask for the minimum value say 390,00, then ask due to current climate would the vendor go lower to say 360,000.. I did this the EA got angry and hung up.. Hardly honing their Skills in the new market..

 

[phoenix_n]

Absolutely. Amateur landlords will be hiding under the duvet, furiously calling the estate agent, questioning why their glorious 1 bed in Donabate isn't selling. My point was that the only thing preventing the market collapsing to zero will be professional investors who will buy when they get a decent yield.

I know Donabate well and always thought apartments there were a risky buy. Although good train links (if you dont mind standing) the prices are too high for apts so far from the city.

335 (or now [broken link removed] ) for a 2 bed.

 

[conor_mc]

So Basically the average Jimmy Garda and Mary Nurse who bought into the property pyramid are going to be worse effected..

Absolutely not. At least they won't lose their construction-related jobs! It'll be Paddy the Plasterer (not that one!) and Brenda the Bank-Employee who'll be hit worst.

 

[hmmm]

So Basically the average Jimmy Garda and Mary Nurse who bought into the property pyramid are going to be worse effected..

Let's speculate:
- Flipper/short term speculator: Are in trouble now, trying to get out and may be able to lock in profits if you sell quickly.
- Investor, rent covers mortgage, good yield (bought in 1998): You may have trouble finding renters, but you should emerge ok
- Investor, subsidising rent: Screwed when prices start falling. Can't afford to sell and can't afford to subsidise the rent.
- Home owner, bought in area they like living, 2006, can afford mortgage: You'll survive, but some of your neighbours will be paying half the mortgage you have to pay for the same type of property.
- Home owner, bought to "get on ladder" - can afford mortgage, don't like area: You're going to be stuck there for 10-15 years.

 

[JayDub]

Given the current climate, what are your views on purchasing a section 23 for purely tax relief reasons? I know time is ticking...

 

[StoppedClock]

Absolutely not. At least they won't lose their construction-related jobs! It'll be Paddy the Plasterer (not that one!) and Brenda the Bank-Employee who'll be hit worst.

I reckon Cahil the car salesman won't be doing to well either, unfortunetly Eamon the Estate Agent will be alright once they get their head around the new new paradigm and start pushing people to sell at any price.

 

[liteweight]

Brenda the Bank-Employee who'll be hit worst.

Won't bank employees revert to their benefit in kind mortgages?? The only reason they don't avail of these at the moment is that they'd have to pay BIK tax. If mortgage rates go much higher, pauing the tax will be worth it!

 

[FGM Doyle]

I was referring to the average couple who through Irish urban myth and neo-materialistic greed, peer pressure, keeping up with the jones, call it what you like but the property market (pyramid scheme) that has so indulged this nation since the inception of the Celtic Tiger has been chased by the average Irish couple regardless of trade or career because you just couldn't loss on it, it's your pension easy earning no work.. sures it like gauranteed..These are the poor souls who will be hurt most by the downward trend..puppets on a string pulled by Greed.

 

[conor_mc]

Won't bank employees revert to their benefit in kind mortgages?? The only reason they don't avail of these at the moment is that they'd have to pay BIK tax. If mortgage rates go much higher, pauing the tax will be worth it!

True, but I was thinking more along the lines of bank staf employed directly in construction-related banking i.e. mortgage lending.

 

[Arthur Daley]

Most BIK mortgages are worth it at the moment I think, if they're 3% fixed.............

 

[bearishbull]

I know Donabate well and always thought apartments there were a risky buy. Although good train links (if you dont mind standing) the prices are too high for apts so far from the city.

335 (or now [broken link removed] ) for a 2 bed.

Prices in such areas are screwed long term as theres loads of land to build in such areas compared to say inside Dublin canals.

 

[bearishbull]

So Basically the average Jimmy Garda and Mary Nurse who bought into the property pyramid are going to be worse effected..

I known plenty of Jimmy Gardas that bought multiple properties when the mortgage was fully covered by the rent back in late eighties and most of nineties. one garda i know from castleknock (big house there) retired at 55 and has ten properties and lives off his public sector pension. It was all about timing, and now is the worst time to buy for last 30 years.