T
- Status
bearishbull
Registered User
- Messages
- 207
Ratio is around 550 in my area (dublin 9). Madness.
liteweight
Registered User
- Messages
- 1,678
Why so?? It's a good area, well settled community and close to the city.
a monthly ratio of rental income to value of 550 equates to a price/earnings ratio of 45.80 which is very expensive when compared to property in many other countries and it is almost three times more expensive than the ISEQ in p/e terms and about equivalent to the NASDAQ.
I understand that you pay a premium for a desirable area but in terms of assessing the merits of property as an investment a price/earnings ratio of almost 47 is pretty steep and I would only pay this if I thought that the rental income could at least double in the near future - an unlikely eventuality in Dublin I would imagine.
Additionally, if you compare the forward p/e ratio for Google (38x next year's earnings) then D9 houses are more expensive than this!
I understand that you pay a premium for a desirable area but in terms of assessing the merits of property as an investment a price/earnings ratio of almost 47 is pretty steep and I would only pay this if I thought that the rental income could at least double in the near future - an unlikely eventuality in Dublin I would imagine.
Additionally, if you compare the forward p/e ratio for Google (38x next year's earnings) then D9 houses are more expensive than this!
Last edited:
bogwarrior
Registered User
- Messages
- 46
well, its the Sydney market for now ( I'm sure Melbourne will follow the same patterns soon). Brisbane and Perth are still growing - though a slowdown there will be inevitable at some stage.
It seems that they've come to something of a tipping point in Sydney - the slowdown has been reported over the last 18 months but now the papers (or at least the SMH) are calling it a crash. People there have been so bullish about property for the last 10 years or so it will be interesting to see how public sentiment changes over the next 6 - 12 months (if the bad news continues).
Ratio is 709 for my house in D4. I just hope my landlord is not reading this thread.....
G
Guest107
Guest
An "apartment" is simply EA speak for what was ALWAYS called a "flat" in Ireland pre 1990. I never met anyone in this country who lived in an apartment before the 1990s.
Why should we import a French word all of a sudden when we have a perfectly good English word already.
Naturally I am reluctant to allow EAs to redefine the english language considering what they have done to words like 'exclusive' and 'exceptional' in their day to day lives .
They are called 'flats' because they are on the one floor.
If they are on more than one floor they are 'maisonettes'
Why should we import a French word all of a sudden when we have a perfectly good English word already.
Naturally I am reluctant to allow EAs to redefine the english language considering what they have done to words like 'exclusive' and 'exceptional' in their day to day lives .
They are called 'flats' because they are on the one floor.
If they are on more than one floor they are 'maisonettes'
And you think this is a valuable contribution to the debate?
Currently, I have yet to see any opponent of bearish argument put forward a rational argument over "yez were wrong for five years, so why should yez be right now" and "property always rises". But this is just laughable.
The sydney market crash is making me rethink about going back into the housing market here.
We are renting 2km from opera house and paying $380 pw-we were been quoted $480k to buy it but close by apartments are now been offered $425k ono.
If these drop by another 15% to say $360k then it basically equates to our rent given interest only mortgage(assuming we put down $60k deposit)
From the above,it makes sense assuming further price drops to buy rather than rent especially as we see ourselves here long term.
Also reading that sydney(same population as`Ireland) is forecasting population growth to 5.7 million and 640k housing starts to 2031.
That works out at 27,500 pa which compares dramatically to Irelands' forecast 100k housing starts this year
We are renting 2km from opera house and paying $380 pw-we were been quoted $480k to buy it but close by apartments are now been offered $425k ono.
If these drop by another 15% to say $360k then it basically equates to our rent given interest only mortgage(assuming we put down $60k deposit)
From the above,it makes sense assuming further price drops to buy rather than rent especially as we see ourselves here long term.
Also reading that sydney(same population as`Ireland) is forecasting population growth to 5.7 million and 640k housing starts to 2031.
That works out at 27,500 pa which compares dramatically to Irelands' forecast 100k housing starts this year
That's hilarious, 550 is *exactly* my ratio too! (Dublin 6).
Sound enough logic, but don't ignore sentiment in the market either. Prices tend to overshoot on the way down too, so if $360k is a reasonable price going by the fundamentals, then a lack of confidence in the market could well see the price go beyond that before confidence is regained and prices stabilise.
Headline in the Examiner today : "Rates rise will price first-time buyers out". They focus on affordability and limits for FTB's but don't make the link that prices will have to fall.
[broken link removed]
It doesn't look like longer mortgage terms make that much of a difference over 35/40 years. There's nothing to save the market from falling IMO, the banks have already used everything in their magic box of tricks.
[broken link removed]
It doesn't look like longer mortgage terms make that much of a difference over 35/40 years. There's nothing to save the market from falling IMO, the banks have already used everything in their magic box of tricks.
G
Guest107
Guest
They sort of mentioned that nobody can afford to buy anymore
But BECAUSE Ireland is DIFFERENT the lack of buyers will have no effect at all, thank God for that!
Know what your saying Conor but if I buy it will be a home not an investment.Rents will go up in the long term whilst mortgage will stay the same(if I fix it at 7%)
I would try to take an interest only loan say over 25 years and use my super to pay balance off(tax efficient and 300k now would equate to 180k in 25 years time assuming 3% inflation)
Cash flow would not be effected as rent=mortgage
I would try to take an interest only loan say over 25 years and use my super to pay balance off(tax efficient and 300k now would equate to 180k in 25 years time assuming 3% inflation)
Cash flow would not be effected as rent=mortgage
Yes I think the banks are playing their last hand at the moment, I got an unsolicited letter from the PTSB last week offering me a 100% mortgage even though I closed the last account I had with them about 5 years ago
Why do you believe that rents will go up? Do you not think that with 100k units coming on stream next year that this will only add to the existing overhang in the market?
- Status