Russian Foreign Policy

Purple said:
I see the Shinner Spokesperson seconded to the Irish Times has reiterated their pro-Neutrality position.
In what reads like an interrupted first-year student debating society speech from the late 1970's that she really really really wanted to get out of her system we hear about FG populism and American "warplanes" and how, in the face of the invasion of a European democracy by a totalitarian dictatorship the right (correct) thing to do is to reassert our neutrality (even though we are not, and have never been, neutral).
If one of my kids wrote that guff for a school project I'd be embarrassed for them.
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I don't mind reading stuff with which I disagree. In fact it sharpens up the thought processes and can help clarify one's own thinking. But yeah, Una Mullally's columns are banal, inconsistent and badly thought out. Not to mention blatantly pro Shinner.
It really doesn't reflect well at all on the Irish Times that she's given such a prestige weekly slot.
 
Baby boomer said:
I don't mind reading stuff with which I disagree. In fact it sharpens up the thought processes and can help clarify one's own thinking.
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This died in Ireland when Kevin Myers was put out to grass. I never agreed with him about anything (except Golf) but explaining to myself why he was wrong was the intellectual equivalent of weightlifting. I never followed him to the Indo however, too much sludge there.
 
If you’re not part of NATO, you’re pretty much on your own regardless of atrocities perpetrated against you.

However, if you are part of NATO and have nuclear capacity, you can carry on to your liking against non-Nato countries..
 
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Some rather sobering analysis from retired Australian general, that Russia is in the process of switching to Plan C after being frustrating in their initial plans by the Ukranian military response:

Plan C might be described as: hold current gains, long range firepower on cities, foreign fighters as cannon fodder, destroy as much infrastructure and manufacturing capacity as possible, expand the war to the west to deter foreign volunteers & aid providers.
This will permit the Russians to economise in personnel, trickle in replacements (and foreign mercenaries), while expending large amounts of cheap artillery and rockets in the hope they can terrorise Ukrainian civilians to force a political accommodation.

 
“Irish aircraft lessors moved a step closer to the possible write-off of billions of euro worth of airplanes leased to Russian airlines after the Kremlin passed a law re-registering foreign-owned aircraft in Russia.

In a move interpreted as retaliatory against EU sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a Bill to allow Russian airlines continue flying leased aircraft by putting airplanes leased from Irish and other foreign companies on Russia’s aircraft register.

The value of the Irish-owned aircraft leased to Russian airlines is estimated to be between €3.5 billion and €4.5 billion, making the Irish industry one of the worst-affected by the crisis.”
 
Sophrosyne said:
“Irish aircraft lessors moved a step closer to the possible write-off of billions of euro worth of airplanes leased to Russian airlines after the Kremlin passed a law re-registering foreign-owned aircraft in Russia.

In a move interpreted as retaliatory against EU sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a Bill to allow Russian airlines continue flying leased aircraft by putting airplanes leased from Irish and other foreign companies on Russia’s aircraft register.

The value of the Irish-owned aircraft leased to Russian airlines is estimated to be between €3.5 billion and €4.5 billion, making the Irish industry one of the worst-affected by the crisis.”
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Hmm... could here be a restitution fund for these loss scenarios using frozen Russian assets.
 
Perhaps, but the Russian Bill is dumb short-termism.

It can only fly the planes in Russia & perhaps its few "friendly" countries as it cannot get international safety certificates.

How long could it keep the planes flying if it can't get spare parts?

What happens when the Ukraine war is over?
 
A chap was on the radio this morning and said what Russia are doing here is akin to them taking an Irish citizen working in Russia and claiming s/he is no longer an Irish citizen and is a Russian citizen and thereby denying them access to the Irish embassy or any aid from Ireland!
It's incredibly short termism (not to mention illegal) and further illustrates the desperation of the Russians. The nose is well and truly cut off at this stage!
 
Sophrosyne said:
Perhaps, but the Russian Bill is dumb short-termism.

It can only fly the planes in Russia & perhaps its few "friendly" countries as it cannot get international safety certificates.

How long could it keep the planes flying if it can't get spare parts?

What happens when the Ukraine war is over?
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It's even worse than that. It puts even the planes they do own in jeopardy if it means companies refuse to provide parts etc for them too.
 
What happens to Irish/EU businesses who had goods made and ready to ship to Russia?
 
Purple said:
Is it possible to be pro Shinner and have opinions that are not be inconsistent and badly thought out?
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One could, I suppose, think that the Shinners were the best of a bad lot and one might well regard some of their policies as verging on quite sensible. ( I don't, BTW!)
But if you go full on for the entire Shinner package, I don't think it's possible to avoid the inconsistencies and bad politics.
 
Possible signs of a deal... Zelensky says Russian demands are becoming more realistic, talk of a special neutral status for Ukraine similar to Sweden or Austria. An armed neutral rather than a demilitarised one. And it suggests like those countries it would not rule out eu membership.
 
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odyssey06 said:
Possible signs of a deal... Zelensky says Russian demands are becoming more realistic, talk of a special neutral status for Ukraine similar to Sweden or Austria. An armed neutral rather than a demilitarised one. And it suggests like those countries it would not rule out eu membership.
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Putin will claim it as a win, which it will be.... he's flattened his neighbour and will probably get to keep even more land. A few sort years he'll go again and things to really escalate then. Sanctions should remain until he coughs up 100bn+ to rebuild what he's destroyed.
 
Firefly said:
Putin will claim it as a win, which it will be.... he's flattened his neighbour and will probably get to keep even more land. A few sort years he'll go again and things to really escalate then. Sanctions should remain until he coughs up 100bn+ to rebuild what he's destroyed.
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Well I think there has to enough in it for Putin to claim a victory of sorts. Mission Accomplished.
But is it really a win at the cost it came with?
The intention was to bring Ukraine back into Russia's orbit like Belarus, with a blitz coup d'etat, expecting the government to collapse with little or no resistance. Instead the Russian military has been shown up, a large modern army - the modern part isn't large and the large part isn't modern. After several weeks fighting looking for mercenaries from Middle East and supplies from China.
The EU taking measures to remove its dependency on Russia, sanctions, possible reparations, crippling Russia's ability to rearm.

The people of Ukraine won't accept a Russian puppet like in the past, so Ukraine as a grudgingly willing member of the Russian economic zone is gone.

I'm sure Zelensky is thinking along the same lines re: it just being a truce. So while not being in NATO if they are in EU or accepted as part of the mutual defence clause that might be enough to deter Russia. Austria takes its weapons from NATO system even though it is not in NATO.
 
The two sides are discussing “a whole range of issues regarding the size of the Ukrainian Army,” Vladimir R. Medinsky, the head of the Russian delegation, said in televised remarks on Wednesday. He said Russia needed “a peaceful, free, independent Ukraine, neutral, not a member of military blocs, not a member of NATO.”

www.nytimes.com

Ukraine Live Updates: Zelensky Implores Congress for More Weapons and Sanctions

After the Ukrainian leader’s video address to lawmakers, President Biden is expected to approve $800 million in new military aid. Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive as cease-fire talks between Kyiv and Moscow continued.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

That's what Ukraine IS, Vlad :rolleyes:
 
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