The R Word
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eileen alana
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Yep, the storm clouds are gathering
Shutting the door when the horse has bolted, as a construction professional I have gone through one redundancy already and I feel distinctly uncomfortable in my new position due to the downward spiral, I am in the process of considering a move to somewhere more vibrant and exciting like London for Olympic site or Dubai, the gloom is just causing too much anguish and despair with workers on the site lossing jobs due to redundacies and liquidations! No my friend it is very real!
The amount of people here trying to deny the enviable is valient but really its last gasp on the battle field before the bayonet is applied to wounded and dying! get used to it tighten the belts the atmosphere has changed.
The real question is, what are the government* going to do about it? Find out on December 13th!
*I know the government haven't got 100% power here. Thought I'd get that in before someone says 'The government can do SFA about it'. Real question is - will they take the hard long term decisions, or will they increase the tax burden they place on us?
*I know the government haven't got 100% power here. Thought I'd get that in before someone says 'The government can do SFA about it'. Real question is - will they take the hard long term decisions, or will they increase the tax burden they place on us?
P
p45
Guest
Taking the 80s recesson as a loose guide then apartment/flats rents will be cheap, lots of shops will have their shutters down, I see at least 30% of coffee shops/sandwich bars closing. Pubs will have happy hours to entice customers back in, people having to sell their homes because they can't meet their repayments because of job losses, (how many of the 600 Hibernian employees will still have their homess in 2 years time?) The 7 euro box of popcorn will definately go for a hop at your local cinema and also expect it to slash it's early showing prices (in the 80s day time tickets were cut by almost 70% from £3 to £1). The 10 euro hamburger's days are numbered and the joint some doors away will have to match the cut, the same for the 4 euro roll. We've already started to stop paying over the odds for these things choosing to go without. Watch your local shopping mall, in mine, Liffey valley, 3 stores have shut since the start of the year. I'm sure there's a pattern in similar malls.
There's no doubt about it, the atmosphere has definitely changed but I'm just making the point that the ESRI has by its own admission been wrong 5 times now about economic growth so they can make all the predictions they want. When we actually see two consecutive quarters of contraction then we're in recession. There's no point panicing 'till then.
eileen alana
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There are thousands of building workers in similar situation, in one sense you are lucky if you have the choice to emigrate. There are many who can't leave due to family and financial constrains.
What has happened to th NDP which was supposed to cater for a large percentage of those left go from the housing sector??
J
jimbob1234
Guest
P45 - one thing i must say is that bars cannot have happy hours anymore , they are banned cos us irish would drink even more and thats not a good thing.
we are indeed heading into a recession but a recession is neccessary to clear out the excesses that have built up over the last 10 years. house prices need to fall, commodity prices need to drop and the govt has to stop giving public servants these huge wage increases for doing nothing.
to put things in perspective we will not have a recession anything like the 1980's. monetary policy back then was a joke with interest rates at 18%. if we have negative gdp now the ECB will slash rates and growth will be revived. a recession is nothing to worry about unless your working in construction , to be perfectly honest anyone working in construction for the past 10 yrs that doesnt have a very nice nest egg built up due to the huge salaries they had doesent deserve any sympathy at all.
we are indeed heading into a recession but a recession is neccessary to clear out the excesses that have built up over the last 10 years. house prices need to fall, commodity prices need to drop and the govt has to stop giving public servants these huge wage increases for doing nothing.
to put things in perspective we will not have a recession anything like the 1980's. monetary policy back then was a joke with interest rates at 18%. if we have negative gdp now the ECB will slash rates and growth will be revived. a recession is nothing to worry about unless your working in construction , to be perfectly honest anyone working in construction for the past 10 yrs that doesnt have a very nice nest egg built up due to the huge salaries they had doesent deserve any sympathy at all.
R
rmelly
Guest
No - if France & Germany have negative gdp. Ireland will never be a significant factor in determining ECB rate changes.
J
jimbob1234
Guest
the poor man. somehome i dont think they will be getting a pay freeze
eileen alana
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Yes but bear in mind the ordinary labourers got nothing like the huge salaries that property developers and land owners coined from the good times.
T
Treehouse
Guest
I find it a bit odd that this is the biggest economics news in a long time, and lots of Irish message boards are buzzing with it, and yet here at AAM it's all very low-key. As I write, there are twice as many people viewing the Cars forum as this one.
Anyway, I'm new here so maybe I'm missing something.
Anyway, I'm new here so maybe I'm missing something.
Most of the sceptics got banned or moved on from AAM due to the ban on discussion of House Prices. Given the role housing played over the last few years it was a little hard to hold a valid discourse without reference to it.
AAM is now more of a reference site than a discussion one, which is no bad thing I suppose.
The ordinary labourers would have gotten pretty good wages actually in the last 10 years plus they would also have alot of access to doing tommers etc. In fairness to the developers, they may not be everyones favourite bunch, but they did take the risks and deserved their rewards, and some are now finding the downside to risks aswell.
Regarding the level of coverage this site has on the 'recession' i find it as a nice change from the constant hype and regurgitation of statistics. I know people have doubts that we can actually talk ourselves into a recession, but we are in danger of getting consumed by what 'could' happen and who to blame rather than looking at the positives.