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Chris Andrews wants to see "the workers protected from a cynical cost cutting exercize" in the consolidation of banks.
 
Brendan said:
The minutes will be posted on the Dail website, tonight or tomorrow.

I didn't follow it, but he seemed to think that the average recovery in property slumps from trough was 88% in 7 years. He also felt we were at the trough now.

George Lee seemed to query that, but didn't press it.
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So, we're being told that we should buy into NAMA because:

(a) we're right now at the bottom of the market
(b) the next 7 years will see an average 9.5% increase in property prices per year

?
 
Brendan said:
The minutes will be posted on the Dail website, tonight or tomorrow.

I didn't follow it, but he seemed to think that the average recovery in property slumps from trough was 88% in 7 years. He also felt we were at the trough now.

George Lee seemed to query that, but didn't press it.
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Averages of slumps in other countries bear no relation to what our experience will be.

I wouldn't place much confidence in anyone that thinks we will somehow follow a path based on averages of other countries. I'd be more interested in:
1) The extremes in terms of recovery from a trough
2) How in the name of God we can be sure we have reached the bottom

I'd have a lot more confidence if the valuation process (arriving at Economic value) started from 1st principles, i.e.
1) The rent less expenses expected on completed properties
2) The expected costs and times to completion on properties to be completed and the resultant rentals streams on these
3) What kind of return we can ever hope to make from land that will not be developed
 
They are all clear that property with planning permission on the outskirts of towns in rural ireland should be valued as agricultural land.
 
OK, Joan Burton has raised John Mulcahy's assessment.

Commercial Property has tended to recover "remarkably" from trough to peak. 88% in 7 years(?).

However, he and the Minister have emphasised that this will not be used in the valuations.

Joan Burton had some point about 30% or 20% haircut, but it didn't get teased out. She asked for a pen and paper.
 
Some of the banks have done interest rate swaps relating to the leases. So the NAMA will have the power to buy derivatives.

The NAMA will not be buying the trading books of the banks
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- Brendan McDonagh
 
Brendan said:
OK, Joan Burton has raised John Mulcahy's assessment.

Commercial Property has tended to recover "remarkably" from trough to peak. 88% in 7 years(?).

However, he and the Minister have emphasised that this will not be used in the valuations.
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If that factoid had nothing to do with the valuation process, I wonder why he wasted the committee's time bringing it up. Did he mention what actually _is_ the valuation process? From the sounds of it, he seems to be thinking aloud.
 
canicemcavoy said:
Did he mention what actually _is_ the valuation process? From the sounds of it, he seems to be thinking aloud.
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Best to check the minutes later on i feel. His contribution was probably the most interesting/important part this afternoon.
 
Joan Burton is gone and now , believe it or not, Pat Rabitte is heckling.

I suspect he has no idea what is going on, so is resorting to slagging people.

The Labour Party representatives are being totally irresponsible.
 
canicemcavoy said:
If that factoid had nothing to do with the valuation process, I wonder why he wasted the committee's time bringing it up. Did he mention what actually _is_ the valuation process? From the sounds of it, he seems to be thinking aloud.
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There is a template and set out forumla that each independent valuation will have to follow. The valuer will have to prove where he got his figures from and the valuation will then be analysed. He didn't go into detail but I think the formula may be published in the bill. As Brendan said, you would be better off reading the minutes.
 
Alan Shatter has congratulated the Minister on bringing out the discussion paper to allow people make suggestions.

He has asked when will the bill be published.

He wants to see the valuations regulations published in draft form, so that we can discuss the concept of "long term economic value".

He is now asking John Mulcahy how his historical analysis can apply to the Irish situation which is unprecedented in its scale and economic backdrop.

We are ignoring the growing number of impaired home mortgages. Banks were paying 110% of the property price at the top of the market. What does this mean for the capitalization of Irish banks. We simply don't know the level of impairment.
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Sunny said:
There is a template and set out forumla that each independent valuation will have to follow. The valuer will have to prove where he got his figures from and the valuation will then be analysed. He didn't go into detail but I think the formula may be published in the bill. As Brendan said, you would be better off reading the minutes.
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Pointless for him to appear then. The maths is key; anything else is waffle.
 
Poor George Lee. He is listening to Alan Shatter making sense and he seems to be realizing just what he has let himself in for by becoming a TD.

I doubt if he will stand again at the next general election.
 
Tomorrows newspaper headlines. 'Lenihan to squeeze a pound of flesh from developers'. In his own words
 
Minister replying to Alan Shatter:


He has asked when will the bill be published. I missed the answer

He wants to see the valuations regulations published in draft form, so that we can discuss the concept of "long term economic value".at the beginning of the second stage debate.

He is now asking John Mulcahy how his historical analysis can apply to the Irish situation which is unprecedented in its scale and economic backdrop.


Impaired residential mortgages: LTV ratio is between 50% and 60%, although there is a problem with the recent mortgages. 11(?) repossessions by the covered institutions in the first 6 months.

We have provided in the legislation to take over these loans,(EU suggested this) but we have no plans to do so.
 
George Lee is speaking now. Obviously there was some prearranged order and he is very low on the pecking order.

He has a very tough gig, as the rest of them have covered most points over the last 4 hours.
 
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