World Cup "Investments"

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My own view on English football culture is through When Saturday Comes, Football 365 and writers like Jonathan Wilson... so I'd have no issue with them doing well.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Most Opressed People Ever
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Ah, good one. I do recall it now. An attempt by others to devalue actual hurt endured directly from the hands of the British State or from those terrorists they sponsored.
I think I recall victims of Bloody Sunday in Derry being labeled as 'hoodlums' not too long back?
Brazil to qualify, and Uruguay to topple the Frenchies!
 
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Notice that Brazil and its smaller neighbour Uruguay are almost geographical mirror images of France and Belgium, even the same shape. Not that this has any implications for investment strategy.
I’ll go the opposite, France & Belgium to progress. The WC has essentially become a European affair with others invited to the party. The golden era of South American/ European meaningful rivalry ended when Germany defeated Brazil 7-1.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:

Notice that Brazil and its smaller neighbour Uruguay are almost geographical mirror images of France and Belgium, even the same shape. Not that this has any implications for investment strategy.
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Might not be useful for 'investment strategy' but that is an interesting bit of knowledge and one I am going to look up now! Thanks
 

Seems like history repeating grand Duke!
 

Well im mightily impressed with this analytical WC investment strategy.

I thought I was doing fair with my WC calls, give or take a handful of clangers, but in fairness to his Dukiness, this call surpasses all I have seen before.

Notwithstanding the reasoned and rationale demise of South American v Europe typified by Germanys 7-1 thrashing of Brazil, im actually intrigued by this concept of country geographical size.

Throw in some political factors and surely nothing but a Novichok v Portdon Down semi-final is on the cards now?

Depending on how much #fakenews the Russians can muster to sway all our views, and regardless of the outcome of that semi-final, the stars are aligning to produce nothing less than the Hulk Hogan v Andre the Giant equivalent of #BREXITMANIA -

Belgium v England final in Moscow!!!
 
Brazil played better than I expected. Perhaps not done for yet. It will be a sad day when the yellow and blue strip ceases to be a WC icon.
I would love a France England final. English tabloids re-enacting the Battle of Waterloo. Only this time the manager is English thru and thru, at Waterloo the England manager was Irish. In fact 30% of the England team at Waterloo were Irish

But to see Macron lapping it up and May still doing a nerve agent hissy fit, that would be precious.
 
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England dominated Sweden but wasteful in front of goal, they should have gone in 2-0 up at halftime. Against a better team they can't afford to miss so many. But their preparation really shows the value of set pieces in international football, as there's not enough team to create a fluid attacking unit, you are relying on individual talent or set pieces. Kane defo hasn't got the legs for extra time and England lacking firepower from the bench. They are not at the level of Belgium or France but in a once off game they could do it - assuming they overcome Croatia\Russia.
 
Not a football fam, just looking to make a profit. Also not a regular at the bookies, maybe some one can explain if I have understood this correctly.

If I put €100 on France at 2/1 and they win I take home €300. If I put €100 on England or Belgium at 11/4 and they win I take home €464, for Croatia at 5/1 its €600.

Given that this would cost me €400 it seems a good deal to me.

Of course France might win and then I am at a loss.

So maybe I will put €150 on France, total stake €450, if France win its quits, if England or Belgium win I am up €13, if Croatia win I am up €150

A free bet ?
 
My dear cremeegg 100 at 11/4 pays 375 not 464.
These are generous odds but still an overround 103% and so no arbitrage opportunity as seen by the following:
10 France @ 2/1 pays 30
8 England @ 11/4 pays 30
8 Belgium @ 11/4 pays 30
5 Croatia @ 5/1 pays 30

Total stake 31, guaranteed loss of 1
 
Thanks Duke for the correction. You would need to be Croatian, to want to bet on this.

Can you explain how you calculated the 103%
 
cremeegg said:
Thanks Duke for the correction. You would need to be Croatian, to want to bet on this.

Can you explain how you calculated the 103%
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31/30 but more generally if an event is rated at odds of x/1 then that says its chance of willing is 1/(1+x) eg 1/1 means a 1/2 chance and 2/1 means a 1/3 chance. Bookies ensure that when you add all the chances up they add to more than 100%. If they add to less then there is an arb opportunity by betting all the possibilities. The odds you quote are from the best in the market and I doubt come from a single bookie. It is possible to be able to arb the market as a whole but not on this occasion.
 
Also these are the 'To Win' match odds. Meaning if either or both games end in a Draw after 90mins you lose your stake.

The 'To Qualify' to next round odds are much shorter.
 
TheBigShort said:
Also these are the 'To Win' match odds. Meaning if either or both games end in a Draw after 90mins you lose your stake.

The 'To Qualify' to next round odds are much shorter.
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My understanding is that these are the odds to win the World Cup, so that there is certainty that one of these teams will win.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
31/30
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I see, and if that came out at less than 100% then there is a profit to be made ?

Duke of Marmalade said:
Bookies ensure that when you add all the chances up they add to more than 100%. If they add to less then there is an arb opportunity by betting all the possibilities.
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There is a bit in "The Godfather" where a bookie working for the Corleone's gets this wrong and all the punters are queueing up to bet with him. He received a severe talking to.
 
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