Why Turkey?

P

plasticpaddy

Registered User
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18
I would like to hear all about investing in Turkey, good and bad stories; all yer political, racial, historical, economic reasons and prejudice as to why or why not to invest in Turkey. I am an independent researcher. By the way London Stock exchange puts Turkey in the 4th best place to invest in 2007, for you guys compiling "10 best place to invest" list.
 
Why to?
Stunning coastline
Lots to see
Relatively cheap to eat out
Great hinterland (a little iffy further east granted)
Good connections
Cheap internal travel
Clean sea (or as clean as the Med can be)
Relatively decent quality of build

Why not?
People (though I must profess to meeting some really decent folks inland and on the Syrian border)
Price of developments
Security
 
After been there on holidays I was amazed at how beautiful Turkey was. It has a perfect climate on the med side anyway. People say how nice places like Croatia and Bulgaria may be..having been to those destinations they are not near Turkey for pure scenery. There is alot to do there also. The people are their own worst enemy though and I met tourists who were afraid to go to the market and city centre in Kusadasi as the vendors annoy the hell out of you and can be rude to people for not buying. However I remember been in Morrocco on holidays 12 years ago and again 3 years ago and it was like 2 different places as over that time they learned talking down to a woman and offering camal exchanges to their boyfriend was a little insulting.. Turkey (In the resorts) will learn lessons also so it may be different in 10 years time. Terrorism is a problem, as I am sure everyone remembers the tragedy of the poor girl from Waterford while her family were on holidays there. This issue cant be ignored.
I would expect Turkey will slowly become the secular society it believes itself to be a some point in the future. The Turks are a passionate proud people which can sometime get in your face but if you see past that and engage further I found them very intelligent and well informed. Dealing with estate agents there must be a nightmare as the Turks would say anything to get ahead.
When they eventually sort their house out and move toward EU membership the resorts there will be make it's med coast bigger than Spain, I think. Flight time is a set back, but people will retire there due to it climate and amenities.
 
Barryo I'm living the dream in Croatia but while the locals and bought for adverts band on about how lovely the coastline is here, Turkey beats it hands down, although in the mountains stakes Croatia comes pretty close to be honest (actually Bosnia is way out ahead in that front). Maybe you're right about the people, but there is a real callousness behind a lot of the activity there, and anything can be bought and sold, so I'd have reservations about seeing them in the EU let alone buy there, although, the same could be said for the two places landing on the doorstep in January, or some of the others chasing in behind.
 
the lse website quotes expected growth of 12% for 2007. which at least is reasonable.
 
I have seen other websites quoting 50-85% (eg dqdx) - do you think figures like this are accurate. Also they have quite a good section on the advantages of investing in Istanbul/Turkey (if you strip out the marketing speak)
 
No real investors are going to turkey -- it is the preserve of amateurs who seem determined to lose as much money as possible, as quickly as possible.

A lot of the hype around Turkish property related to that country's proposed accession to the EU, not that that means anything if the fundamentals are flawed, but even that now seems to be on extended hold following recent pronouncements from Brusels.

The reality about markets like this is that they are for the unwise and the inexperienced; the smart money stays away.

No doubt a flurry of responses will say different; in my humble view these will have a couple of things in common:

1. They have already bought and are in denial about the prospects.

2. They are involved in selling this garbage!
 
Auto I think you might only be looking from an Irish-centric point of view. There are real invstors in Turkey, and a number of corporations have block bought apartments and developed their own resorts. Maybe you don't consider Commerz Bank property section as being inexperienced, or unwise, or Sabban Corp, or possibly even Neckermann who have created 2 resorts through subsidiary.
 
[extracted from wikipedia]
Turkey's current and past governments do not respect key principles expected in a liberal democracy because of discrimination against ethnic minorities, particularly Kurds, non-Sunni Muslim religious minorities, political dissidents and critics of the 'Kemalist' nationalism and by preventing freedom of religion through enforced-secularism. The EU has expressed concerns about the rise of nationalism in Turkey and the adverse effect thereof on the accession process. Its large population would also alter the balance of power in the representative European institutions. Also, only a small fraction of Turkish territory lies in the common geographical definition of Europe. Another concern is that Turkey continues to occupy the northern third of the island of Cyprus, with 40,000 Turkish troops stationed on the island, and refuses to officially recognise Cyprus, a current EU member state, until a solution is found to the Cyprus dispute under the auspices of the United Nations.


It sums up why i would never buy in Turkey...
Too much risk IMO "you can may be make +12% (as stated above though i am very dubious about it, and forget about the man who quoted 50-85%) in one year but you can loose -12% as easily".
Far too much on the political agenda for this country to be stable...
 
almo said:
Auto I think you might only be looking from an Irish-centric point of view. There are real invstors in Turkey, and a number of corporations have block bought apartments and developed their own resorts. Maybe you don't consider Commerz Bank property section as being inexperienced, or unwise, or Sabban Corp, or possibly even Neckermann who have created 2 resorts through subsidiary.
Click to expand...

This would be the same Commerzbank that got into severe financial difficulties in the early part of this decade because of risky loans brought on by imprudent lending?
 
JohnBoy said:
This would be the same Commerzbank that got into severe financial difficulties in the early part of this decade because of risky loans brought on by imprudent lending?
Click to expand...

Probably not the subsidiary that made 4million in profit from a well run resort, and maybe it's only the elite few who can learn from mistakes, but Commerzbank went in and bought the land, developed it and use it for tourism exclusively, called smart business by some.
 
I think that the jury will be out on Turkey for some time but for me the risks involved in investing there far outweigh the potential rewards. I understand that it takes a cetain type of investor to profit in a market like this but I am seeing mainly the unsophisticated Dubai/Cape Verde/Bulgaria types buying here.

In nominal terms property in Turkey is indeed cheap relative to say a holiday home in Spain or Florida but that does not mean that it is good value.
 
Johnboy, just out of interest what are "unsophisticated types"? I'm not asking out of rudeness, just trying to figure if this is the same person from the Pope's Children who travels Europe buying property in calculated gambles?
 
almo said:
Auto I think you might only be looking from an Irish-centric point of view. There are real invstors in Turkey, and a number of corporations have block bought apartments and developed their own resorts. Maybe you don't consider Commerz Bank property section as being inexperienced, or unwise, or Sabban Corp, or possibly even Neckermann who have created 2 resorts through subsidiary.
Click to expand...

Without doubt there are big players making money in Turkey, largely by selling on to amateurs who are not able to analyze a market or an individual project properly. Just as in Bulgaria, a small number of developers are making a fortune at the expense of thousands of one-off buyers from Ireland, the UK and other countries where property has become an obsession with the populace at large.

That said, I still stand over my statement that the majority of "investors" in these markets will get burned on exit. Even those looking for a cheap holiday property will eventually get fed up with the long trek to Turkey in the off season when direct flights are not available.

The reality is this: If you want a holiday home in a nice climate, at a reasonable price, go to Spain or Portugal, where properties can be bought at much the same level as in the crazy markets and where you can have access all year round, as well as steady capital appreciation over time. If you want investment with a rental return, forget holiday markets and go to major cities, think with your brain and buy at local rates in the best areas you can afford and rent out to the real market -- not at some notional figure proposed by a salesman you have just met.

It never ceases to amaze me that buyers of foreign properties seem to throw all common sense to the wind and make absolutely crazy decisions, while the same people wouldn't buy a car here without at least taking it for a test drive. There is a ton of opportunity out there in the investment field in general and in property in particular, but the majority of Irish buyers seem to let it pass them by, dazzled as they are by shiny brochures and sales talk.
 
Are you working with foreign property Auto? Just out of interest, because I've seen what my colleagues go through, even when I've had to translate docu's etc, ther are not so many mugs, although the glossy brochure crowd will still make their dodgy sales to keep their cars out of hock.
 
Turkey may seem modern and progressive along the coastal resorts, but go back into the hinterland and you can be going back a thousand years. Now that 'honour killings' have been made illegal, 'honour suicides' have taken their place, where the girl is forced to take her own life. Not to mention, as bacchus above said, Cyprus, the denial of the Armenian genocide, writers arrested for 'insulting Turkishness' etc.etc. Turkey is a democracy at gunpoint. It has always been the army who has enforced Kemalism, and the EU is demanding the disempowerment of that same army. Has Erdogan of 'The minarets are our bayonets, the mosques are our barracks, the believers are our soldiers' really changed his spots, or is he banking on EU membership and its religious freedoms to give Islamists free rein? There's also the question of forced marriage and polygamy, which although banned, even some of his own Government members indulge in. While no country is perfect, I personally wouldn't invest there for all the above reasons.
 
Here is a link about forced suicides:

[broken link removed]

[broken link removed]
 
almo said:
Johnboy, just out of interest what are "unsophisticated types"? I'm not asking out of rudeness, just trying to figure if this is the same person from the Pope's Children who travels Europe buying property in calculated gambles?
Click to expand...

not me i am afraid ( i have not even read the book). for me unsophisticated = dumb money. the irish obession with property is a well established phenomonen and i suspect that this leads people to make risky decisions in overseas markets based on what has happened in the home market. there are safer investment opportunities available in more developed countries. if most people had the financial skills to examine at the risk/return trade-off of buying in Turkey under various interest rate/currency/economic/political scenarios, i doubt that they would then proceed. i am sure that some people will make money in Turkey (and not just the developers) but i cannot see the majority doing so.
 
I understand now Johnboy, but dumb money has been earned the hard way (or given on credit) and shouldn't be discounted. I was at a meeting, actually a couple of days worth, where a major investment firm were harping on about making a "landmark" development, that it would be exclusive, that it would be for the "top end" of the market, that (and this was said in the presence of our diplomatic rep here) "your man who owns 10 taxis and wants a Spanish type place to treat his mates to beer and golf isn't the target market".

Now, at ths point I made it clear I wasn't so keen on being involved in such idiotic and snobbish carry on, and when they were then guided to a plot that they would never realise in buying or developing by the biggest sharks this side of Seaworld (despite me warning on 4 separate occasions) - they backed off and nothing happened.

It's important to distinguish between who are those who go looking to be fleeced, and those who go and see past the blather - or who have found what they're looking for. But in terms of dumb money, just try talking sense to a husband and wife who reckon they know more than even the lawyers, or a big investment firm who figure anything can be changed with money, which they don't really want to pay.
 
Silvester said:
Turkey may seem modern and progressive along the coastal resorts, but go back into the hinterland and you can be going back a thousand years. Now that 'honour killings' have been made illegal, 'honour suicides' have taken their place, where the girl is forced to take her own life. Not to mention, as bacchus above said, Cyprus, the denial of the Armenian genocide, writers arrested for 'insulting Turkishness' etc.etc. Turkey is a democracy at gunpoint. It has always been the army who has enforced Kemalism, and the EU is demanding the disempowerment of that same army. Has Erdogan of 'The minarets are our bayonets, the mosques are our barracks, the believers are our soldiers' really changed his spots, or is he banking on EU membership and its religious freedoms to give Islamists free rein? There's also the question of forced marriage and polygamy, which although banned, even some of his own Government members indulge in. While no country is perfect, I personally wouldn't invest there for all the above reasons.
Click to expand...

A lot of the honour killings take place within the Kurdish community, which is usually glossed over as they're still an invisible sizeable minority. Turkey has problems yes, and theyr'e numerous, however a lot of countries where Irish investors have been gong have equally rotten states of affairs for human rights - Bulgaria, Montenegro, Romania, Croatia, Egypt, Emirates, Morocco, Spain, USA etc etc, so if we're to solely take a moral point of view we wouldn't even buy a place in crime, drug and excess ridden Ireland! And as for the UK, well........
 
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