Why schools probably aren’t COVID hotspots

[Purple]

Nature Magazine has published data on community infection within schools.
The news is good;
Data gathered worldwide are increasingly suggesting that schools are not hot spots for coronavirus infections. Despite fears, COVID-19 infections did not surge when schools and day-care centres reopened after pandemic lockdowns eased. And when outbreaks do occur, they mostly result in only a small number of people becoming ill.

However, research also shows that children can catch the virus and shed viral particles, and older children are more likely than very young kids to pass it on to others. Scientists say that the reasons for these trends are unclear, but they have policy implications for older children and teachers.

Someone can tell the ASTI that they don't need to go on strike after all... what a relief... unless of course it was really about more money this time (like it is every other time). My sister is a teacher. She's appalled at the prospect of going on strike as are all the people she works with.

edit: I said INTO but it is ASTI who are talking about striking (thanks Cormac)

 

[Prosper]

In the attached link if you scroll down towards the bottom you'll see how the virus spreads in a classroom.

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

english.elpais.com

 

[Purple]

In the attached link if you scroll down towards the bottom you'll see how the virus spreads in a classroom.

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

english.elpais.com

That's an excellent link Prosper.

 

[Sophrosyne]

Is there an issue with who is considered a close contact in Irish schools?

 

[odyssey06]

Is there an issue with who is considered a close contact in Irish schools?

Yes it seems the definition of close contact in schools is much stricer than other circumstances... and masks appear to be magically stronger at protection in school settings of sustained contact than they would be considered anywhere else! And I'm pro-mask but if you are in same room as an infected person for hours then your standard mask isn't going to protect against that.

 

[odyssey06]

ps I don't think we should close schools but I think we have to realise if they are open we will have more cases and higher R number.
Not that they are a 'hotspot' necessarily but they are definitely a current through which it flows.

 

[Sophrosyne]

Thanks for that @odyssey06.

I caught the tail end of an RTÉ interview with a HSE representative who, when asked, had no information regarding the number of cases associated with recent school clusters.

There was also a mention of a different definition of "close contact" being applied in schools, as opposed to other settings, though I didn't hear that discussion.

 

[odyssey06]

I caught the tail end of an RTÉ interview with a HSE representative who, when asked, had no information regarding the number of cases associated with recent school clusters.

Yes. I've started to notice when HSE \ NPHET respond to a question in the 'passive' voice e.g. "We have no evidence that..."
That immediately makes me suspicious.
If someone uses the active voice... i.e. We conducted the following analysis and X... then I believe them.

I remember when "there was no evidence" of human to human transmission... "no evidence" of presymptomatic spread... etc

 

[Purple]

Yes. I've started to notice when HSE \ NPHET respond to a question in the 'passive' voice e.g. "We have no evidence that..."
That immediately makes me suspicious.
If someone uses the active voice... i.e. We conducted the following analysis and X... then I believe them.

I remember when "there was no evidence" of human to human transmission... "no evidence" of presymptomatic spread... etc

When were people saying that there was no evidence of human to human transmission?
I remember people saying that there was very low levels of asymptomatic transmission. I think it is still the case that rates of asymptomatic transmission are low. Have a look at Prosper’s link above.

 

[odyssey06]

When were people saying that there was no evidence of human to human transmission?
I remember people saying that there was very low levels of asymptomatic transmission. I think it is still the case that rates of asymptomatic transmission are low. Have a look at Prosper’s link above.

This is going back to late January for human to human transmission and March for presymptomatic \ asymptomatic transmission.
Wasn't there a doctor who was cleared to work in nursing home or hospital ward after returning from Italian ski resort in March because he had no symptoms... who then triggered a cluster of infections?

Covid-19: Health authorities 'working rapidly' to identify contacts of doctor and his family in Limerick

Patients who may have come into contact with one of the confirmed cases of Covid-19 are being contacted directly.

www.thejournal.ie

So when I hear someone say passively "There is no evidence of X".... that has very weak standing for me.

 

[Sophrosyne]

This is going back to late January for human to human transmission

Yes. There was a now infamous tweet posted on 14 January 2020 on the WHO website, which stated that preliminary investigations by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus identified in Wuhan, China. On the same date a different WHO expert warned of mass human transmission.

There is not enough big data regarding asymptomatic transmission to call it either way.

I don't know if it is still the case here in Ireland, but tracing that only goes back 48 hours is very unsatisfactory and could attribute the source of contagion incorrectly.

 

[odyssey06]

RTE article on how school close contacts are being defined deliberately to other settings...

Schools seen as 'safe' places in more ways than one

At Thursday's HSE briefing, a public health consultant acknowledged something that some school staff and parents have suspected of late: that when it comes to testing in schools, and who is or isn't regarded as a close contact, different rules apply.

www.rte.ie

 

[Sophrosyne]

Looks like the horns of a dilemma with two equally difficult alternatives – keep schools open; contain viral spread.

 

[Purple]

Yes. There was a now infamous tweet posted on 14 January 2020 on the WHO website, which stated that preliminary investigations by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus identified in Wuhan, China. On the same date a different WHO expert warned of mass human transmission.

There is not enough big data regarding asymptomatic transmission to call it either way.

I don't know if it is still the case here in Ireland, but tracing that only goes back 48 hours is very unsatisfactory and could attribute the source of contagion incorrectly.

I think it's fair to say that we have considerably more data now. In late January there was no data outside China and very little from China. Therefore trends and statistics derived from much larger sample sizes over a much larger geographical area and a much longer time period are much more meaningful.

I agree on contact tracing. We have closed most of the economy and subjected hundreds of thousands of people to uncertainty and unemployment, with all the mental health and domestic abuse and other general health and wellbeing issues which go with it, because of the organisational incompetence of our health service which, despite abundant funding, can't provide sufficient ICU beds or a satisfactory testing and contract tracing infrastructure. It is a shameful failure of the managers and medical "professionals" who are will paid to do a job which seems to be beyond them.

In the normal course of events people just die on trolleys and spend years waiting for life altering treatments but we are used to that and the false narrative that somehow it's down to funding or a particular Health Minister is mindlessly regurgitated by the media. We now see the same organisational incompetence in action reacting to this disease and it's business as usual, lionising the people who are failing to do their job.

 

[Sophrosyne]

I think it's fair to say that we have considerably more data now. In late January there was no data outside China and very little from China.

My reference to the January WHO tweet was in relation to @odyssey06's post #10, which in turn was in response to one of your questions in post #9.

Research since then, while it has provided more insight, generally stops short of firm conclusions.

The contact tracing problem is not unique to Ireland.

Lack of data on the timing of exposure and the onset of symptoms relative to the testing date is, with few exceptions, a global problem.

It necessitates assumptions of the true identification of index cases, which leads to assumptions of the infection status of contacts with positive or negative results and assumptions of incubation periods.

Global research is hampered by this and so reputable experts are reticent in drawing definitive conclusions about pre-symptomatic & asymptomatic spread and also the role of children in the spread.

Understandably, there is wishful thinking regarding viral spread by children, but at present, we just don’t know.

 

[Purple]

My reference to the January WHO tweet was in relation to @odyssey06's post #10, which in turn was in response to one of your questions in post #9.

Research since then, while it has provided more insight, generally stops short of firm conclusions.

The contact tracing problem is not unique to Ireland.

Lack of data on the timing of exposure and the onset of symptoms relative to the testing date is, with few exceptions, a global problem.

It necessitates assumptions of the true identification of index cases, which leads to assumptions of the infection status of contacts with positive or negative results and assumptions of incubation periods.

Global research is hampered by this and so reputable experts are reticent in drawing definitive conclusions about pre-symptomatic & asymptomatic spread and also the role of children in the spread.

Understandably, there is wishful thinking regarding viral spread by children, but at present, we just don’t know.

It will be years before the experts draw definitive and broadly agreed conclusions. All we can do at the moment is work on the information we have, free of emotion and assumptions of some darker intent from those offering it.
What we can't do is become paralyzed into indecision based on fear and a very narrow focus on what impacts this disease is having on our society.

I agree that the contract tracing problem is not unique to Ireland but we are an island with a young population and one of the most highly funded healthcare systems in the world, adjusted for that demographic we are strong contenders to be well within the top 10. In that context I think we should expect better from those who provide that service.

I am always wary of people who are prone to selfagradisment. The same applied to organisations or representative bodies which do the same thing. I like evidence and facts and I like people and organisations which concentrate on what they are bad at and acknowledge that we are all subject to the same human frailties as that's how we get better.
When I'm told that a Bank or aa business or a health service or an education system, or the people who work within them, is/are "World Class" my first reaction is "How do you know? What are you measuring yourself against? Where's the value for money audit?". It's really important not to believe your own propaganda.

 

[Sophrosyne]

What we can't do is become paralyzed into indecision based on fear and a very narrow focus on what impacts this disease is having on our society.

Who is doing that?

 

[Purple]

Who is doing that?

I'm seeing in some of the more opinion based media reporting. The hard cases where someone young is badly affected being reported as if it is something other than a statistically irrelevant outlier, the talk of long Covid as if there is a tsunami of further illness about to overwhelm us. The calls for further lockdowns despite the guidance from the WHO stating that they should be a short term measure to allow health services the space to get their house in order. That sort of thing.

 

[Sophrosyne]

That is just some media reports.

That doesn't equate to:

become paralyzed into indecision based on fear and a very narrow focus on what impacts this disease is having on our society.

 

[Purple]

That is just some media reports.

That doesn't equate to:

In your opinion.