Not much of a "currency" if you can't pay your bills with it! Any sign of the general population using it to like, purchase something?
Seems to me that Bitcoin is, since 2013, stuck in the speculative stage.
This particular thread is concerned with the notion of digital gold. Use as means of exchange and unit of account are other use cases. The fact that its not all pervasive in this moment for use as a day to day currency this very day doesn't mean that it won't be.Not much of a "currency" if you can't pay your bills with it! Any sign of the general population using it to like, purchase something?
Seems to me that Bitcoin is, since 2013, stuck in the speculative stage.
Gold will continue to have its place in portfolios that are not ready for digital assets. With bitcoin there is of course greater risk as its formative but there's a case to be made to gain a certain level of exposure to that risk as the potential upside is far greater than gold.Fella said:I have on occasions thought about buying Bitcoin "digital gold " just for a bit of fun , but it just seems easier to buy gold .
You're absolutely right. The usability issues with bitcoin are well known and there's a hive of bright minds working on making bitcoin more easy to use. That it has such problems right now doesn't mean that they can't be solved - it just may take some time to iron out, like so many applications of technology and innovation in the past.Fella said:Bitcoin seems unnecessarily complicated to me and I've read about it a few times and thought meh that just seems like hard work.
I'm still in my 30's and I find it complex (maybe that says more about me !) I think it needs to be simplified if the general population are to start using it.
This particular thread is concerned with the notion of digital gold. Use as means of exchange and unit of account are other use cases.
Isn't everything crashing right now?If was used by the general population to buy stuff & pay bills it probably wouldn't be crashing....
You tell me!Isn't everything crashing right now?
Ok, everything has crashed... equities, gold, silver, bitcoin, oil.You tell me!
Ok, everything has crashed... equities, gold, silver, bitcoin, oil.
The discussion is about 'digital gold'.I meant currencies.....
I'm going to buy your explanation that bitcoin's failure to act as digital gold is because the bitcoin community are steeped in leveraged positions. It fits in with a theory that bitcoin is nothing more than a playground for speculators. It serves absolutely no other purpose. One almost feels sorry for criminals who have been duped into thinking that it is a suitable vehicle for their hard earned, if ill gotten, gains.Semantics your Dukeness. If bills have to be paid, bills have to be paid. Remember you're talking about highly leveraged positions in equities needing to be covered.
There's been no such comparative failure. You know that already.I'm going to buy your explanation that bitcoin's failure to act as digital gold
I'd encourage you to review previous posts on this thread. Links have been provided to market commentators confirming that there has been a scramble towards covering losses in the conventional markets.because the bitcoin community are steeped in leveraged positions.
Tell us how you really feel, your Dukeness. :-DIt fits in with a theory that bitcoin is nothing more than a playground for speculators. It serves absolutely no other purpose. One almost feels sorry for criminals who have been duped into thinking that it is a suitable vehicle for their hard earned, if ill gotten, gains.
That assuages my concern for that much maligned, and rightly so, community.According to a recent report, just 1% of bitcoin transactions in 2019 were attributed to illicit activity.
The Duke of Mar-malaise has spoken.That assuages my concern for that much maligned, and rightly so, community.
For criminals, cash is always king.I'm going to buy your explanation that bitcoin's failure to act as digital gold is because the bitcoin community are steeped in leveraged positions. It fits in with a theory that bitcoin is nothing more than a playground for speculators. It serves absolutely no other purpose. One almost feels sorry for criminals who have been duped into thinking that it is a suitable vehicle for their hard earned, if ill gotten, gains.
For sure. In 2019, only 1.1% of crypto transactions were deemed to be illicit.For criminals, cash is always king.
It's May 12 your dukeness. There was little talk of the halving coming out of the covid conundrum. It was coming back up in any event. Now that the halving is fast approaching, there has been more consideration of it. However, I don't think that's in any way feverish.Apparently the main driver of the bitcoin bounce is the "halving" expected around May 20th.
This is a concept you're not used to Dukey - it's called Quantitative Tightening - not this Q.E. unlimited social experiment brought to you by the Fed/ECB/BoJ/BoE, etc. Can you tell me please why anyone had to pay taxes all these years when it seems the ECB could have just printed this off?All the usual suspects are running countdown clocks and constantly reminding their gullible patrons of the boost to price from earlier halvings, even going so far as to justify this based on supply and demand arguments. Really can't get my head around that.
The notion of an efficient market hypothesis is a fair point. Some believe it's priced in - and some don't. However, you're wrong to single out the bitcoin market for irrationality given what we're seeing right now in the conventional markets. The worst jobs figures ever are released and the market goes up! The conventional markets are the greatest live example of irrationality right now - powered by hopium and magic money.The new supply is going to fall from 3,600 per day to 1,800 per day. That is out of a total supply of 17,000,000. Besides we have known about this halving coming for 11 years - the fact that the price ramps up in the few weeks before it actually happens is just another manifestation of the total irrationality of bitcoin pricing.
It's an interesting anecdote Brendan but it betrays a misunderstanding of the bitcoin halving. The halving is Quantitative Tightening. Bitcoin miners expend energy and resources in confirming bitcoin transactions. A reward of 12.5 BTC is provided every ten minutes for the confirmation of blocks of transactions. As of block 630000 (expected to be reached on May 12), that reward is cut in half to 6.25 BTC.Brendan Burgess said:Reminds me of the share splits during the dot.com bubble. A rumour that a company with a share price of $50 was going to issue one new share for every share held would result in a price rise. And then the split would happen. Instead of having one share worth $50, you would end up with two shares worth $60. I remember a guy saying to me in all seriousness about a company he had invested in "One more share split, and I will be a millionaire".
Fill yer boots.Brendan Burgess said:With Bitcoin back at $9,000 maybe it's time to short it again.
Entirely speculative on my part but I suspect that the steaming mess in the conventional markets has not ended - and will play out over the coming weeks/months.Brendan Burgess said:Do I sell off some of my buy and hold shares to do so?
I thought this was ground we'd already covered but apparently not. Bitcoin crashed hard in those market panic conditions only to recover later. Gold crashed in those market panic conditions only to recover later. People have ran the numbers. Over its 11 year history, bitcoin has largely been uncorrelated with the conventional markets. As it stands today, it is once again, the best performing asset class in 2020 - as it was in 2019 and as it has been over the course of the last decade.Brendan Burgess said:If the stock market crashes, will Bitcoin crash? Or as it's "digital gold" maybe it will rise.
I ponder a similar question but yet one that is the antithesis of yours => 'How long will it take for yourself and his Dukeness to get to that Eureka! moment? The one that goes along the lines of an understanding that bitcoin is hard digital money which is divisible, censorship resistant and digital gold (or an uncorrelated asset class in it's own right).Brendan Burgess said:I wonder what event will trigger the realisation that it is a bag of hot air?
Ok, so miners have to release newly minted bitcoin onto the market in order to cover substantial costs and make a profit. That emissions rate will be cut in half. Essentially, the bitcoin inflation rate will reduce from 3.7% to under 2%. Clearly, it will have to have some effect on pricing (if we assume demand to be the same as pre-halving times).I have also corrected the effect of the halving which will be a mere drop of 900 a day in the supply of new bitcoin which the miners dump as soon as they have wiped off the dirt. If that can have a pricing effect when the existing supply is 17,000,000 it is a very strange dynamic indeed.
I don't believe there is any media without bias although the extent of that bias can vary. In that regard, Coindesk are not doing so bad. But if you were to criticise Coindesk, you should equally criticise the markets p0rN eminating from CNBC in the conventional game. As to 'stirred up hype', I'm not seeing much of that. The reality is that the macro economic situation and what we are seeing in terms of the application of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and infinite QE is the bigger consideration for anyone looking at bitcoin right now.Of course the halving is influencing the price but not because of fundamental supply/demand dynamics but because of all the hype stirred up by the Coindesks of this world.
In the space of that two years, I've seen people who have come from the conventional side of the house start to see the potential in bitcoin. These have tended to be gold bugs and macro investors - who have built their careers on identifying emerging trends/changes. Guys like Raoul Pal.As to Chris Wood, all I can recall is that when I researched this about two years ago the vast, vast majority of respected economists were in the BOHA camp. Do you know of any converts?
Ok, let me get this straight. To your mind the Global Head of Equity Strategy for a leading investment bank is a 'cultist'? Firstly, he works for an investment bank - they tend to be conservative to say the least! Secondly, I had never heard of him mentioned in crypto circles up until his note to investors earlier this week.I tried to give CW the benefit of the doubt that he was merely reflecting the reality that in the medium term at least bitcoin will behave like an uncorrelated asset even though it is fundamentally a BOHA. Rather like recommending disinfectant companies because of a surge in Trump induced demand whilst knowing it is a nonsense. But no, he is a cultist himself waxing about its decentralised nature blah, blah, blah.
Keep me posted.On QE and fiat money in general I must admit I am a bit concerned at the resort to the printing presses. You pose an interesting question - why have taxes at all if we can simply print the stuff? I will ponder a response - haven't got one yet.
The Fed and ECB may be a hell of a lot savvier than the Zimbabwe's or Venezuela's of this world. However, that doesn't mean that they can't get it wrong. And it's not just the Fed. There is a political influence there - direct political influence from Trump. What if going in to the next election, Trump tells them to keep the taps on - just a tiny bit longer than they should?But this is not Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela Take 4. The QE has until now been an attempt to fight deflation. WZV money printing was to finance hopelessly unsustainable public expenditure. Admittedly the COVID supports will show up as budgetary deficits and therefore potentially inflationary, but with inflation way below target we have some headroom. And there will be COVID induced deflationary effects with cuts in wages and demand.
I am counting you as one of those "bitcoin scholars" or at least a fellow traveller. Well, more than 10 years after the printing presses were first turned on in earnest, no sign of the predicted hyperinflation.Wiki said:Bitcoin scholars advise that Bitcoin was created in reaction to the QE policies post 2008 recession. Bitcoins' fixed supply, and decentralized nature (the Fed cannot print more Bitcoins) lend it as an alternative to QE
Anybody that spouts any of that mantra is a cultist to me.Ok, let me get this straight. To your mind the Global Head of Equity Strategy for a leading investment bank is a 'cultist'?
What is your view of a Nobel Laureate?Paul Krugman said:“Cryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.
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