Why is Bitcoin "digital gold" crashing right now?

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Duke of Marmalade said:
I accept there is a demand from lefties who wet themselves at the prospect of the corrupt monetary/capitalist system imploding.
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Brendan Burgess said:
Surely lefties would want to see more regulation and not less regulation?
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This is priceless as more often than not, crypto peeps get accused of being right wing or libertarian nut jobs. The reality is that it has solid fundamentals that attract people from all backgrounds. Bitcoin doesn't care for the politics of its users or its protagonists.
 
Case
Sorry Duke, I made it clear my reference was for an example only to support the theory of legitimacy. This is a well researched theory in business academia.

I wouldn't expect amazon to do that but maybe as a technophobe you like to grab onto anything.
 
And my reference was to what now transpires was an erroneous interpretation of your example by a crypto peep.
Now GPS with its use of Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity, that I admire.
Performing billions of trial and error attempts to solve a crypto puzzle does not float my boat.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Now GPS with its use of Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity, that I admire.
Performing billions of trial and error attempts to solve a crypto puzzle does not float my boat.
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Luckily, the days of pandering to the whims of the aristocracy Your Dukeness are long gone. PoW is an egalitarian system that is key in creating the most secure peer to peer payments system ever seen. Luckily many others see its potential despite you not doing so.
 
I was genuinely puzzled by the fact that bitcoin was even more vulnerable to recent developments than conventional assets.
Searching for explanations from crypto websites shows that they too were puzzled. One suggests it is because of the rush to safe assets like toilet rolls which can’t be bought with bitcoin. More seriously they observe that the falls will have been a big shock to bitcoin holders who thought they had insurance against such crashes in the markets.
A major claim of the bitcoin community has been ruthlessly exposed.
Hot Air Day acometh.
 
Oh no!

Now Thats What I Call
Duke of Marmalade said:
Hot Air Day acometh
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87!

Notably bitcoin did spike yesterday at around the same time that the US Fed announced it was picking the magic money tree for a $1.5trn increase in its balance sheet and cutting interests rates, in a coordinated effort with Central Banks around the world.
The spike was short lived, as with stocks markets this morning, investors realize that interest rates, money printing, or even bitcoin cannot stop the economic decline attributable to this pandemic.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
A major claim of the bitcoin community has been ruthlessly exposed.
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Eh, no it hasn't. Check the XAU/USD chart - big red candles for gold.

Duke of Marmalade said:
Hot Air Day acometh.
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The day of reckoning is coming for bitcoin is it? Yourself, Brendan and many others have been telling us that for over two years on this discussion board and yet you can't even indicate a general timeframe.
All the while, none of you have addressed the steaming piles of crap from the elephants in the room. I'm talking about the mismanagement of the conventional system and this reliance on magic-ing up monopoly money....the 'elephants' being your precious central banks - not least the Fed and the ECB.
Here's Ben Bernanke in 2010 explicitly stating (lying) that the FED wasn't printing money. Both the Europeans and the US now have interest rates on the floor - there's nowhere to go with that....except go back to the magic money tree.
You complain that the Duke's ass would be lacking toilet paper if his dukeness could only acquire it via bitcoin? I think you're prone to excessive panic like much of the population. Should you not have the where-with-all to acquire toilet paper with bitcoin, don't panic. Jerome Powell and Cristine Lagarde are seeing to it that you'll have an endless supply of watermarked notes that will do the job just fine. In Venezuela, they've gotten that bit more creative and their local 'magic money' is used to make things like handbags.

Another little factoid for his dukeness to ponder whilst comtemplating the state of the world on the throne....the price of toilet paper has increased 32% since the last financial crisis whilst wages have increased 13%.
 
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WolfeTone said:
What has happened, what have we done, achieved, to have an economy valued at 38% more than peak Celtic Tiger times?
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(Slightly) more people are at work in Ireland today than were at the previous peak in 2008.

The people who have joined the workforce are much better educated than those who have left. All of those joining the workforce had the benefit of the free education system, those retiring mostly missed out on that.

More people today are working in the most productive sectors and fewer in the less productive sectors.

The statistics tell us that these things have caused output to be 38% higher than it was in 2008.

Duke of Marmalade said:
I see that there was a spiked jump in Manufacturing GDP in 2015, I suspect that is Leprechaun economics.
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There was indeed, as I understand it, that was mostly the result of the activities of the aircraft leasing industry, while it is a far cry from traditional manufacturing, and the underlying activity takes place all over the world, the aircraft are owned by Irish registered companies, and while the capital behind most of them is not Irish, (the capital behind the biggest is Chinese) the management and administration is Irish based.

A Chinese company paid a US manufacturer billions for a number of planes, they are being flown all over the world by crew from all over the world, but the management and admin staff are in Ireland. Employment is created in Ireland, payroll taxes are paid in Ireland, and Corporate profits taxes are payable (and paid I hope) in Ireland.

Mostly due to the genius of one Clare man.

It is said that this activity distorts the statistics, but the activity is real, and it is recorded in Ireland because Ireland is the legal residence of the owners.
 
cremeegg said:
The statistics tell us that these things have caused output to be 38% higher than it was in 2008.
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I don't think the statistics are telling us that at all. For the output of the entire economy to be 38% higher I would expect a significantly larger expansion of the workforce over and above what it was 2007/2008.
The stats are showing us that the value of what we produce is calculated as 38% more than what we were producing in 2008.
With inflation at near 0% over the period, and the bulk of that period confined to recessionary times, there is little to indicate what it is that has propelled our economy to be valued 38% more than what it was at peak Celtic Tiger days.
 
Fidgety said:
A very proud Tipperary man.
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I wasn't thinking of Tony Ryan. Although he did indeed start the aircraft leasing industry in Ireland, it was some years after the collapse of GPA that the industry was revived and largely brought to its present position by a Clare man.
 
Back to the 'Digital Gold' debate. Rome wasn't built in a day - nor was a candidate for 'digital gold' determined to be or not to be such in a couple of days.

Bitcoin is up 20% today - and 60% on it's recent low point at $3,900. The DJI/S&P/FTSE, etc have been flat today. Meanwhile, gold is down half a percent.

Here's a bitcoin convert from the gold world (founder of Gold Bullion International) and his current outlook for bitcoin given we are now in negative interest rate territory. The founder of Gold Money came out yesterday and suggested better cooperation between gold and crypto proponents on the basis that both are 'sound money'.

It doesn't matter how good of a safe haven an asset is - if certain actors need to cover losses elsewhere. If there are bills to be paid, of course money will be pulled from safe haven assets too.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Here is another long article
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Also on the very long side is this podcast with Raoul Pal (Macro Investor & Investment Strategist). Pal comes from the conventional trading world but is bullish on bitcoin. The interview leads to a discussion on the current state of the markets with recession a given and his belief that the powers that be are trying to stave off a depression, the eventual shift to an alternative financial system and bitcoin's role in that.

If anyone has some Covid-induced downtime, it may be worth a listen.
 
tecate said:
It doesn't matter how good of a safe haven an asset is - if certain actors need to cover losses elsewhere. If there are bills to be paid, of course money will be pulled from safe haven assets too.
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So you sell your "safe haven assets" at a discount of 50% to meet margin calls induced by 30% falls on your risky assets. It's a strategy.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
So you sell your "safe haven assets" at a discount of 50% to meet margin calls induced by 30% falls on your risky assets. It's a strategy.
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Semantics your Dukeness. If bills have to be paid, bills have to be paid. Remember you're talking about highly leveraged positions in equities needing to be covered.
 
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tecate said:
Semantics your Dukeness. If bills have to be paid, bills have to be paid. Remember you're talking about highly leveraged positions in equities needing to be covered.
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Not much of a "currency" if you can't pay your bills with it! Any sign of the general population using it to like, purchase something?

Seems to me that Bitcoin is, since 2013, stuck in the speculative stage.
 
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