Duke of Marmalade
Registered User
- Messages
- 4,596
Further observation:
On Saturday 20th Nov there were 40 winners of Match 5, each receiving just over €1,500. The numbers drawn were 9,14,22,32,38,42
On Saturday 6th Nov there were 120 winners of Match 5, each receiving just over €500. The numbers drawn were 5,6,9,15,19,25
And the pattern is repeated for the lower prizes.
We see here the "birthday" effect. The earlier draw could have come from all birthdays, not so the later draw. There is also the factor that original Lotto fans will have stuck to a selection of numbers which in those days had to come from 1 to 36.
The message is that you greatly reduce your expected individual* pay-out ratio by sticking to numbers 36 and under and vice versa. But the ploy of sticking to numbers in excess of 36 would also probably backfire as there only need to be about 1% smart asses doing that to counter the birthday syndrome. In a similar way the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 have every bit as much chance as any other selection but there only needs to be 1 in a 1,000 too smart for themselves asses to negate any advantage.
Probably best to pick 3 numbers in excess of 36. Off the top of my head I would say that this would push your expected pay-out ratio up to over 150% in current circumstances.
* the aggregate pay-out ratio is unaffected but because of sharing the individual pay-out is diluted
On Saturday 20th Nov there were 40 winners of Match 5, each receiving just over €1,500. The numbers drawn were 9,14,22,32,38,42
On Saturday 6th Nov there were 120 winners of Match 5, each receiving just over €500. The numbers drawn were 5,6,9,15,19,25
And the pattern is repeated for the lower prizes.
We see here the "birthday" effect. The earlier draw could have come from all birthdays, not so the later draw. There is also the factor that original Lotto fans will have stuck to a selection of numbers which in those days had to come from 1 to 36.
The message is that you greatly reduce your expected individual* pay-out ratio by sticking to numbers 36 and under and vice versa. But the ploy of sticking to numbers in excess of 36 would also probably backfire as there only need to be about 1% smart asses doing that to counter the birthday syndrome. In a similar way the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 have every bit as much chance as any other selection but there only needs to be 1 in a 1,000 too smart for themselves asses to negate any advantage.
Probably best to pick 3 numbers in excess of 36. Off the top of my head I would say that this would push your expected pay-out ratio up to over 150% in current circumstances.
* the aggregate pay-out ratio is unaffected but because of sharing the individual pay-out is diluted
Last edited: