When, under what circumstances, will the lockdown end.

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cremeegg

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No where can I see any suggestions as to what circumstances might bring about the end of the lockdown. Does anyone on here have any ideas? Or have you seen anything to indicate what might be an acceptable end point.
 
I think it will be a gradual relaxation of restrictions.

When the numbers of new cases fall to very low levels, they will stop the cocooning and 2 km rule.

But it will be a while before we are all swilling pints in pubs.

Brendan
 
If we flatten the curve, it lasts longer.

One strategy was not to intervene and let it infect lots of people and we would develop herd immunity.

Brendan
 
In my opinion... Lockdown will be in phases over the next months. While infection rates are still rising it would be madness to ease restrictions.
BUT, when infection rates plateau and start to decrease we will see easing of measures like in the Asian countries which are seeing same dips.
Massive testing needs to happen and results of monitoring will be the driver.
I think we will be in intermittent lock down for quite some time... until we have a vaccine / herd immunity / cure how else should we progress?
Until the transmission rate is below 1, we cannot live as we used to...
Anyone thinking schools etc will be back to normal in September...... cant happen without some Golden bullet of a vaccine / cure... and by best estimates that's not coming until second half of 2021
 
We probably need to somehow get an accurate idea of immunity within the population. Of course that will require antibody testing of a considerable section of the population and then all the admin associated with that, including data protection to name one hurdle.
Vaccine is 18 months away but there is considerable work being done to try and make the virus less potent?????, apparently this is being done by companies who are in the vaccine sphere.
Getting back to "normal " isn't going to happen, imho, we have seen that not having basic medical tools or the ability to produce them in country has helped the virus to kill many, overwhelme countries health systems in a matter of days/ weeks .
Globalization is going to be examined in detail its perceived advantages are known but its disadvantages are becoming more known on a daily basis.
Personally I hope humanity has a look in the mirror and realises that we can't continue on the path we are presently on.......
Nature seems to be telling us a lot perhaps it's time to listen.....
 
If they start doing the different test that shows you had it will they start releasing those people from the restrictions
 
Restrictions will loosen when the medical system is no longer in danger of being overran. I.e. new infections are low and ICU spare capacity is high

And then as spread increases again they will retighten restrictions. This will go on until an effective treatment, vaccine, or enough of the population had been infected, or maybe a cheap reliable 15 minute test is available.

They might lift restrictions on some groups, regions, industries to try and maximise social and economic good while controlling new spreads. They might rotate restrictions though groups.

Older people likely to have strong restrictions for long time yet
 
Paul O Mahoney said:
Vaccine is 18 months away but there is considerable work being done to try and make the virus less potent?????, apparently this is being done by companies who are in the vaccine sphere.
Click to expand...

The thinking is vaccine is likely to be more like 12 months away. You can't make a virus less potent, but therapeutics can lessen the severity of symptoms.

Paul O Mahoney said:
Globalization is going to be examined in detail its perceived advantages are known but its disadvantages are becoming more known on a daily basis.
Click to expand...

You mean bring on more globalisation and stop the wet markets in corners of the world that haven't embraced it?
 
moneymakeover said:
We can look into the future by looking at Wuhan, Beijing, Italy and Spain
Click to expand...

Such is my faith in the political system of China that if they told me Christmas Day falls on 25th December, I'd check the calendar. It is a police state with armed police, army and secret service roaming around as vain popstars like there was going to be another peoples' revolution within an hour. If they could have got away with not informing the world of what was happening in Wuhan, they would.

Italy and Spain, well what can I say? Two governments that if they had four aces in a game of poker somehow they would still manage to lose. The warnings were there and not only did they fail to heed them, they actually assisted in the spread of Covid-19. Then we have Donald Trump - the least said about this Covid-19 incompetent the better. I ain't the greatest prophet, but I can see that the UK also got it wrong and somewhat changed some course when it realised the error of its ways. And still they all can learn more from us. (And I haven't even mentioned France yet).

I don't know when this crisis will end. But, I feel safer listening to the Irish government and its advisors than those elsewhere. If I were influential in the governments of Italy, Spain, USA, UK and elsewhere I'd be looking towards Ireland for guidance and doing what is done here. I don't know how long it will take to get Ireland Ltd up and running again, but I'm prepared to wait.
 
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I’d say the lockdown will have to be tightened. It seems there were many Irish out enjoying the fine weather on Saturday.
With a BHW on the way, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was an announcement on Thursday evening.
This voluntary lockdown is working for most people, but not all. It’ll probably depend on how close the R0 is to 1.
Twice last week I drove about 7 km from my house, to and from a laundrette. I was blasé about the lockdown, but as I’ve had the virus and recovered I can’t hurt anyone. The roads and footpaths were fairly quiet but far from deserted. The Gardai were our but I didn’t see them stopping anyone

I’ve a friend living in Italy so I know the difference between their lockdown and ours, and that the current lockdown can be tightened.
Over there you must print off a permission slip before leaving home and carry it with you. The police can and will stop you. If they’re not satisfied you’ll get a €230 fine.
Our Leo Lockdown is nothing like this.
To conclude, I’d expect the lockdown to be phased out in stages, but before that happens, I’d expect a tighter lockdown to be phased in first.
I selfishly hope that we introduce immunity passports like are being proposed in other countries.
 
Denmark are reportedly ready to relax restrictions somewhat this week due to a drop in numbers. They are probably a good marker for us to monitor. It does seem very early for them to be relaxing restrictions I feel but let's see how they get on.
 
I’d say they’re looking over The Sound to Sweden and second-thinking their approach.
 
All restrictions can really only be lifted once an effective vaccine is distributed across the majority of the population, or until herd immunity is achieved.
It may be possible to work out a range for the duration of restrictions based on rate of infections requiring ICU care, ICU capacity & turn-around time, with the goal being to ensure ICU facilities aren't overwhelmed, and maintain a rate of transmission that results in broad immunity.
 
In France, they're discussing a partial return to work at the end of May, maybe sooner, where the workforce in SME's in particular is split between a morning and afternoon shift to enable more spacing in confined spaces.
 
They can talk all they like but with the lack of data at this stage it's just conjecture.

I sometimes talk with friends about what I'd do if I won the Euromillions. That doesn't mean I will win it.
 
Denmark is thinking of easing restrictions after the Easter weekend. It’s an economic decision.
 
Spain wants to expand testing to general populace, even without symptoms, to gauge de-escalation strategy.
www.rte.ie

Spain to widen testing for Covid-19 as death rate drops

Spain is planning to widen coronavirus testing to include people without symptoms as a first step towards slowly easing a lockdown in the nation with the second highest death toll from the global pandemic.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie
 
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