We already publish quarterly an analysis of the main investment options available in Ireland for the advisers we work with.
What's really interesting for me as a practitioner is the degree of dispersion of fund performance over any period.
I recently was asked for an opinion on some investments.
Analysis of a “portfolio”
One of the biggest challenges facing Financial Advisers in Ireland today is making the transition from the traditional product-focused approach to a more client-centric financial planning approach and in doing so, validating an annual retainer fee.
The focus here is on solid risk profiling and consideration of the tax status of the client - both ordinarily required by the Consumer Protection Code.
This analysis is a real case study that vividly illustrates these points. There is so much “wrong” with these client’s existing investments that its hard to know where to start.
I should start by saying that hindsight portfolio management always has the advantage. But some of the issues raised by this analysis were known to prudent investors in 2014 (I wrote extensively at the time about how many Absolute Return strategies could be replicated with a relatively naive 40%/60% Equity Bond portfolio for example.)
Equally, we knew that Global REITS make more sense for investors than property funds (better liquidity for one), even if we didn't know in advance how Brexit would impact this particular UK Commercial Property fund, we did know that the antidote to something like Brexit has always been to be globally diversified.
Finally, we've always known that the only free lunch when it comes to investing is diversification, so this is a case study in how a diversified portfolio improves the risk adjusted returns for clients compared to an adviser picking plausible sounding marketing stories.
These clients are probably far from "average investors" and we can't infer that the degree to which they have missed out on market returns (that were there for the taking) is in any way representative of the population at large. But I do believe that the approach taken of picking one or two popular marketing stories still represents the Modus Operandi of many advisers in Ireland today.
These investors invested in a Life Assurance Bond in 2014 and placed their whole investment in just two funds
· Property 50%
· Absolute Return 50%
Investment Risk and Return Characteristics
For the 4 years ending Sept 2018 the client portfolio has the following characteristics:
Average annual return in Euro 0.60%pa
Average annual volatility 3.47%pa (ESMA 3)
Source FE
If the adviser had simply put the clients into an equivalent-risked ”multi- asset” portfolio from any one of the Insurance Companies in Ireland (including the one they are with) they would have added considerably to the returns
Taking an average of 4 randomly selected multi asset portfolios with the same risk characteristics and that were available in 2014 the average portfolio returned 2.08%pa over the last 4 years.
We just added nearly 1.5%pa (1.4825%) over the client’s return for each of the last 4 years. Job done!
Standard deviation is an appalling measure of the risk of a property fund
Over the 5 years ending September 2018 the volatility of the Property Fund that the client is invested in was just 4.33%. Something doesn't seem right.
Over the 15 years ending September 2018 the volatility of the Property Fund was 5.79%
Source FE
Naturally, this leads many investors and their advisers to conclude that property funds are “low risk”
However, the peak to trough decline between 16/8/2007 and 8/7/2009 was -36.47% hardly low risk. Source FE
The effect of an appraisal valuation (these look like “steps” on a graph) makes the variability of the property fund seem less than a daily priced equity fund. But in reality, they both lose the same over this time period (compared to FTSE All World in Euro which declined by 33.04% over the same period).
We need to “restate” the risk of the portfolio to reflect this?
If we substitute the volatility of the Insurance Company's own Global Real Estate Fund for the client's Property Fund, then the restated volatility of the portfolio is now 6.5 over the last 4 years. Even this paints an interesting story as the available REIT fund under performed the Global REIT fund we use in our portfolios by 5.7%pa over the 4 years. But that's another story about using best-in-class.
Let’s make the same comparison as before with the same 4 randomly selected Life Company multi-asset portfolios but this time with a step-up in risk, so that the reference volatility is now increased to around 6.5.
We now have an average annual return for the higher risked (ESMA 4) Life Company multi-asset portfolios of 4.785%pa over the last 4 years compared to the client's actual portfolio return of 0.60%pa.
Now we are adding 4.185%pa each year compared to the client portfolio.
But we are still letting the original adviser drive the portfolio construction process…..
What is the "right" risk for this client?
We tested the client’s risk tolerance and found that the client has a higher risk tolerance than we might think by looking at their current portfolio.
Our analysis confirms that we are still being far too conservative with our portfolio comparisons.
Stepping up the risk again to a volatility of more like 10 (ESMA 5), the average annual return of our 4 life companies is now 6.88%pa compared to the client’s actual return of 0.60%pa.
Simply matching the client to a more appropriately risked multi-asset portfolio would on average have added 6.28%pa for these clients for each of the last 4 years.
On an investment of €100,000 that’s €6280 each year or €27,586 compounded up over 4 years on average!!
We’re not done yet however….
Unsuitable contract?
The clients jointly earn around €40,000pa and are therefore basic rate taxpayers paying income tax at 20% and Capital Gains Tax at a rate of 33% yet have been invested in a contract paying Exit Tax at 41% on all income and gains.
Our analysis indicates that on average, allowing for the effects of more beneficial taxation and lower charges, a tax efficient portfolio should add around 0.75%pa to investment returns compared to an Insurance Company fund subject to exit tax.
The comparison is now with our Irish specific tax-optimised portfolios.
Using the same approach as before, we’ll take the average of 4 portfolios so as to not overstate the case.
The average annual return of these portfolios over the last 4 years was 10.255%pa
We therefore would have added on average 9.655%pa for each of the last 4 years.
In addition to the better overall performance, we believe on average these portfolios would have added an additional 0.75% through a combination of better tax efficiency and lower overall costs.
Not having to pay the life levy, for example, is worth 0.20%pa over 5 years.
So, adding those two together we get a total of 10.40%pa
Compounding that up we get €48,551 over 4 years.
The moral of the story is that adviser alpha is real and can be quantified after the fact by simply comparing a clients realised returns with the theoretical returns that they should have received for the investment risk that they took less reasonable costs. Remember that the portfolios presented at the end of this analysis are implemented using Index funds .
I'm not claiming that we can always add 10% a year but I think I've demonstrated that by better risk profiling and consideration of the client's tax status, an adviser can demonstrate clear added value and thereby justify their ongoing advice fees.