What's happening to House prices since new year?

we've been trying for almost a year now to become FTBs, typically looking at ex council houses in dublin close to town but being pushed further and further out by prices. Viewing, bidding, hours on myhome.ie, driving around dodgy areas to suss them out, stressing, getting depressed, giving up, starting back at square one again, except it's higher prices again, sleepless nights "house palpitations" i call em!!
makes one feel like packing it all in and going to lead a simple life on a tropical island;-)
 
the patently lower quality of a large proportion of the housing stock constructed during the past 10 years. When this comes to selling-on time, owners are more likely to make large discounts to compensate for the repairs and renovations which will loom large very shortly.
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Not necessarily true in my experience, the quality pre the present boom was in the most part abysmal (at least judging from the various places around the city where I have lived. However my current (ftb apartment), is extremely well sound proofed, built to maximise natural lighting and thus retains heat extremely well and has adequate storage space. I have lived in one of the early celtic tiger apartments, ie built 98/99, and it was the opposite and will undoubtedly be a a tenement in short order!
 
extopia said:
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I have a tip for you. Just wait until prices come down to what you can afford. Rent in the meantime, if you must. The prices will come down. They always do. .
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I dont think they will come down for dublin houses in the 300-450 bracket, I would expect a small decrease in the 750+ bracket. If you work out the repayments on a 300k mortgage you will see its something a lot of couples and some single people can afford, then they can also rent a room or two out to supplement. A lot of people can afford to pay for these houses in the 300-450k bracket, the price wont decrease.

If you keep waiting (assuming you are buying in this lower bracket range) then you will just end up paying more. Whatever people say, the SSIA will boost these prices over the next 24 months. Just like the Governments attempt to make things easier for the First Time Buyer with the stamp duy changes, the SSIAs will have an impact on the housing market.

People have being saying to wait for a decrease for the last 3 years, the thing is they dont divide the housing market up when talking about this, they assume ALL houses will decrease. The lower range will not, espeicially in Dublin as it is the only major area in Ireland for business.

I think anyone waiting for a decrease in the lower price ranges are fooling themselves unless we have a major economic downturn, major loss of foreign investment, a 3% or more increase in Interest rates, World War 3...etc!
 
SteelBlue05 said:
II think anyone waiting for a decrease in the lower price ranges are fooling themselves unless we have a major economic downturn, major loss of foreign investment, a 3% or more increase in Interest rates, World War 3...etc!
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Exactly my point.

Housing demand is affected by a lot of things. Price increases up to the point of maximum "affordability" are fuelled ultimately by the availability of credit. This will be the first thing to be curtailed when the international slowdown in property markets hits Ireland, which will be very soon I imagine, if it hasn't actually started to happen already.

Seriously, I'd wait.
 
Isn't it more likely that house prices will stabilise? I can't imagine that they will suddenly go for that much cheaper, even if the interest increases come in. Considering that so many houses worth more than a million still sell like hot cakes and everytime I show up to view a house there's at least 15 other parties looking as well, I can't see how higher interest rates will change the desire of people to get their own home that much. Maybe the bidding won't go as crazy and maybe houses might be sold for 20K less..
 
Yeah, you might see a slight decrease if there is some major shock to the property market but what you have paid in rent in the mean time waiting for some unknown event will more than offset what you save with the decrease.
 
tiger said:
Out of curiousity, are you following this advice yourself?
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Put it this way - I'm not looking to buy any properties at the moment, no. I am completely convinced that prices have been inflated by a combination of low interest rates (set by the EU and inappropriate to our booming economy by the way), liberal lending policies, and panic buying.

Having said that, I have a house already, if that's what you mean. But if I wanted to trade up, I wouldn't do it now. And if I wanted to sell any property, I would be trying to do it now while the going is still good.
 
extopia said:
Having said that, I have a house already, if that's what you mean. But if I wanted to trade up, I wouldn't do it now. And if I wanted to sell any property, I would be trying to do it now while the going is still good.
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Sounds like we're of the same mind & in the same boat then.

Buying a house is a lifestyle choice as well as an investment decision, as a first time buyer in a booming market, it felt like a game of musical chairs and it's easy to hold a certain position when you already have a chair.

The market has long since gone past the point of making any sense to me, so I've stopped trying to predict it or give any advice.
 
The key point there is that you do have a property yourself so objectively you can stand back and say hold off - don't buy. It's hard when you are keen to get on the ladder (I now hate that expression!!!!) and all you are hearing about is how much further things are getting out of your reach (€10bn to be pumped into the Irish property market with SSIA's etc). I'm not looking to make a 110% return like some people in the property market and I'm not one of those people who only wants to talk about how much their property has appreciated since they "bought off the plans" like 8 years ago!

It seems like just wanting to buy a decent starter home in a nice area is becoming more of a nightmare than a dream...

Damn, I hope my numbers come out in tomorrow's Euromillions draw :)
 
I feel for you New Girl. I spent many years in the same boat, thinking I would never be able to buy. But time passed. Markets changed, personal earning power increased, prices dropped.

In the meantime I rented. I never felt that renting was a waste of money - sure I was paying someone else's mortgage, but they were taking all the risk and had to keep the place in good shape.

This was not in Ireland, by the way, it was in another country, in a city where renting was the norm rather than the exception. Ireland is becoming more and more like that place, although the desire to be a property owner is still stronger here than in many other countries.

There is an economic argument to be made for renting too, you know. Especially if you can't afford to buy!

Be patient, you will probably be able to buy in the future, at more realistic prices.
 
extopia said:
Be patient, you will probably be able to buy in the future, at more realistic prices.
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Not in Dublin, there wont be a decrease in the lower price ranges, unless there is a major economic downturn (which then often reduces peoples spending power so its the same situation).
 
SteelBlue05 said:
Not in Dublin.
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I beg to differ. I've seen it happen before, in much bigger cities than Dublin. I believe it will happen again.

Just my opinion!
 
I think Dublin is an unusual situation, its the only major area for business in Ireland. And Ireland is a big economy therefore theres an ever increasing population in and around Dublin and its not the biggest city in the world or anything. Thats why the prices are going up in Dublin.

In other parts of Ireland prices are fairly stagnant already because the demand isnt there.

Prices in the lower ranges would settle down if other areas in Ireland attracted existing businesses away from Dublin.

Beyond just a guess, why do you think Dublin prices will decrease? You need to take into account Dublin as a housing market itself and as a city where so much of Ireland's businesses are based. So why do you think Dublin prices will decrease?
 
Myself and my boyfriend are lucky enough in that we are both earning good enough money and could afford to pay a decent mortgage. I guess my issue is that this "hefty mortgage" IMHO should be on quite a nice property. If you are going to be forced to pay a whopper of a mortgage on a run of the mill property it does begin to grind on you. The whole stamp duty thing is another kettle of fish altogether so i better not start on that rant :)
 
extopia said:
I beg to differ. I've seen it happen before, in much bigger cities than Dublin. I believe it will happen again.

Just my opinion!
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I agree with this. It can always happen. In fact, Ireland is very vulnerable, all it takes is for Dell or Intel etc. to move out and that's it. Game over! And what drives those decisions is out of our hands. I read somewhere that each person is guaranteed to experience two recessions and a depression in their lifetime.

Well, we've had the recessions (in the eighties and early 90's for those of us who remember them), the last global depression was in the 30's.

So my point is, accept that it can and does happen. The key is to remember that VALUE of the property you are buying is as important as the decision to buy. It is likely that the value of Irish residential property should be at least questioned at this stage.

I think what makes it difficult for people to assess value is the fact that buying a home is an emotional decision - this can cloud the judgement. I believe that's what's happening now.

anyway, best of luck to all buying a house

t
 
There are a number of factors which could lead to a downturn in prices:

1. Rising interest rates - this will happen, 3% base rate by year end is thought likely.
2. Slowdown in construction, the above may help bring this about - with this we may experience a drop in the rental market, allied to the increased mortgage repayments, and increased supply of rental units, first time investors who've over extended may be forced to sell off.
3. As the above happens, then banks start to tighten their criteria, thus leading to lower amounts being approved .......

and this leads to Meltdown.

But then I've been forecasting this for about 3 years now, so pay no heed!!
 
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