Key Post What Brendan Burgess has actually said about property, prices and borrowing

[aristotle]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

What am I missing here? Brendan started the thread so of course people will feedback with their opinions. And whether someone wants to remain anonymous on the internet or not is their own choice, I don't think it is a question of bravery, its privacy. Again no one was forced to identify themselves.

I too think he is a very good person to have on the panel.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Why didn't Brendan warn people we were in the middle of a huge property bubble?

There are only two answers to this:

1) He was unaware of this, even though the dogs on the street could see it. This should raise serious question marks about him being appointed to any financial body.

2) He had a vested interest in keeping his mouth shut, for example, if he had a lot of bank shares...

This is very bizarre reasoning.
I have been very clear that I was a long-term holder of AIB shares.
If I had seen the property crash coming, (which I didn't by the way), and if I had known that the impact of it on the lending to property developers, then I would have sold my AIB shares and, afterwards, I would have warned everyone about the property crash. [/quote]

Have you ever banned someone for saying the economy might be pick up so house prices might rise? Didn't think so.

No one has been banned for discussing the direction of the Irish economy. It is allowed on Askaboutmoney.

No one has been banned for predicting increases in Irish house prices. Because, as you well know, we allow this. We only ban discussion of falls in Irish house prices. We don't like any negative talk on Askaboutmoney. Here are links to all the posts forecasting house price increases...
(Actually, like yourself, I am a bit busy right now so it might take me some time to find them...)

 

[aristotle]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

We only ban discussion of falls in Irish house prices. We don't like any negative talk on Askaboutmoney.

Thats just not right.

Having come back to this site after being away from it for a year I think that just nails it for me. I want balanced discussion not some rose tinted glasses view of the world.

 

[Sunny]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Thats just not right.

Having come back to this site after being away from it for a year I think that just nails it for me. I want balanced discussion not some rose tinted glasses view of the world.

He was been sarcastic

 

[Dave Vanian]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

And whether someone wants to remain anonymous on the internet or not is their own choice, I don't think it is a question of bravery, its privacy. Again no one was forced to identify themselves.

I agree with the principle that anonymity should be an option on boards such as these. But it's unfair to try to use information about someone who posts under their own name against them.

For example, there are anonymous posters in this and another thread who are asking about his AIB shares and attempting to infer some hidden "vested interest" conspiracy theories, even though Brendan has always held his shares in his own name rather than the more private nominee account method and so his name has always appeared on public domain share registers etc.

It's a bit rich trying (badly) to accuse someone of hiding their fictitious vested interests while choosing to be anonymous so nobody has a clue what the accuser's interests, vested or otherwise, are.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Thats just not right.

Having come back to this site after being away from it for a year I think that just nails it for me. I want balanced discussion not some rose tinted glasses view of the world.

Sorry Aristotle

I left out the smiley

 

[UFC]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

If I had seen the property crash coming, (which I didn't by the way), and if I had known that the impact of it on the lending to property developers, then I would have sold my AIB shares and, afterwards, I would have warned everyone about the property crash.

How did you not see the property crash coming? Seriously, how?!

That alone is reason enough why you should not be on any debt reform panel. It should be limited to experts, or at least people who understand the basics of economics.

Btw, I understand many economists at banks claim they didn't see it coming either, but that's obviously rubbish. They were never going to admit we were in a bubble even if it was written down in front of them. Why? Because they had a vested interest in saying the opposite.

 

[canicemcavoy]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I will agree with Dave in two things:

1. There's absolutely no call to resort to the abusive name-calling quoted. It cheapens and derails any debate.
2. There's no need to resort to belief in conspiracy theories or maliciousness, when things can be explained by good old irrational exhuberance. I personally believe Brendan 100% when he says he did not see the property bubble collapsing.

However, I do find it odd - and forgive me if I'm misreading people - that a public figure, who has been appointed to a government body based partly on their leadership of this forum, cannot be criticised in an adult manner based on things they have said on this forum or, or indeed, elsewhere in the media.

I have a question for Brendan: were there any people whose writings against the property bubble, before it exploded, you considered worthy of consideration? You have mentioned that Morgan Kelly was a "ranter", and as for David McWillams, you also seem to have a low opinion of him for many years. Were there any whose opinions you mentioned here in a positive light?

Conversely, were there any property pumpers who you criticized on this forum? The opinions of some, such as Marc Coleman and Liz O'Kane, seem absurd in the cold light of day. But I don't recall you using the same vehement language against such people as you did against Kelly and McWilliams. If you did, I apologise and perhaps you can quote some.

 

[Dave Vanian]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

How did you not see the property crash coming? Seriously, how?!

That alone is reason enough why you should not be on any debt reform panel. It should be limited to experts, or at least people who understand the basics of economics.

Btw, I understand many economists at banks claim they didn't see it coming either, but that's obviously rubbish. They were never going to admit we were in a bubble even if it was written down in front of them. Why? Because they had a vested interest in saying the opposite.

This is an example of what I'm talking about. UFC chooses to be anonymous and criticises Brendan because he didn't predict the property crash, thus inferring that he (UFC) was somehow able to predict it.

Yet we have no way of knowing whether or not this is valid. For all we know, UFC predicted double-digit growth in Irish property prices in 2009, but can now change his tune to suit an argument.

 

[sinbadsailor]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Having taken the time to read this thread in its entirety I must say there a few things that stand out:

1. I feel that their is a core group of posters Behind brendan that run morality and truth gaurd over the topics being discussed. There have been examples of that in this thread, especially the thread that posted the foul language examples, which was over the top

2. There are numerous trolls on this forum also, that bait responses to certain topics also

3. I have to give certain respect for Brendan to putting himself out here to be backed into a wall with his followers and barraged with the accusations

But once the dust settles on this or on any discussion similar to it, there are truths out there that can not be hidden or explained away.

1. There was a legion of people in Ireland, bankers, economists and so called experts that either ignored the problem or at worst, hid the problem from the general public in order to gain. Whether that gain was selling property at inflated prices, getting higher paid jobs in economic posts or by writing books etc, that is irrelevant. People with the information let everyone else fry. Nobody had the courage to stand up to what was clearly a government/financial industry (note industry, not just banks!) to profit at the behest of the general public.

2. This deception is still ongoing. These people are now on the other side, with their bankrolls safe, now playing expert on how to save a situation that they knowingly created.

Now whether Brendan deserves his new position or not is not something I can say, I have no personal and intimate details of his credentials and I sure dont know the inner throughts of his mind with regard to what he know or didn't know over the last 3-5 years or whether he had vested interest or not.

So the only thing I would ask anyone posting on this forum on either side, is this:

Are you being 100% honest, with yourself and with everyone here. Have you made honourable decisions with the information you have possessed in the past, and finally, have you profited in any way using knowledge that could have prevented a lot of people from essentially following the people and industries they trusted in flushing their lives down the toilet only to be told that it is now their own fault and that they will have to bear the pain of the correction.

I think someone mentioned collective responsibility...well that is what there should be...and that means everyone!!

So continue on with the bickering, it is amusing to say the least, but in the edn it only serves to distract from the important facts of the financial toiletbowl we now live in.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

However, I do find it odd - and forgive me if I'm misreading people - that a public figure, who has been appointed to a government body based partly on their leadership of this forum, cannot be criticised in an adult manner based on things they have said on this forum or, or indeed, elsewhere in the media.

Canice

Who is saying that I cannot be criticized for things I have said on this forum?

Friends have asked me why I allow this sort of personal abuse of me on Askaboutmoney. I certainly would not allow Askaboutmoney to be used to abuse others in this regard.

But not only am I being criticized for things I said, most of the crticism is out of context. Selective quotes which suggest one thing. When you go back to the source and read the stuff you will see the right context.

I have a question for Brendan: were there any people whose writings against the property bubble, before it exploded, you considered worthy of consideration? You have mentioned that Morgan Kelly was a "ranter", and as for David McWillams, you also seem to have a low opinion of him for many years. Were there any whose opinions you mentioned here in a positive light?

Conversely, were there any property pumpers who you criticized on this forum? The opinions of some, such as Marc Coleman and Liz O'Kane, seem absurd in the cold light of day. But I don't recall you using the same vehement language against such people as you did against Kelly and McWilliams.

This has been discussed in this thread

The cold facts of the matter are that I did neither dismissed nor endorsed, McWilliams or Kelly during the property boom. When I did do a balanced summary of the arguments, I provided links to both their works. I put in 7 links to independent experts - 6 of them were clearly predicting a crash - including Davys - one was vague - the Central Bank.

I don't think I had heard of Marc Coleman, as far as I know until the last year or so, when he interviewed me on a radio programme about NAMA.(I remember being embarrassed asking the researcher who Marc Coleman was). I don't know who Liz O'Kane is.

I have a poor view of economists generally. They have full confidence that they know what is going to happen. Unfortunately, the world is just not that predictable.

I find McWilliams difficult to listen to, but I have made the effort.
Morgan Kelly suggested that the government would be better off burning €500m in St Stephens Green than giving it to Anglo. That sort of argument really puts me off people. But as you have recommended him so strongly, I will pay more attention to him in future.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Folks

The purpose of this thread is to put on the record things I have said about property, prices and banking.

Some people have questioned my suitability to be on the Expert Group and I have moved these posts to this existing thread.

I have also moved other posts relating to the operations of the Expert Group.

Brendan

 

[darag]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

It would obviously take me quite a while to find them, so I hope you can understand I am not going to find them for you. But I know my opinion is shared by many posters on Boards.ie and Thepropertypin.com, so I don't believe it was my imagination!

It wouldn't take any time at all to find them if they existed - try using google.

You are unwilling to present or even consult any evidence to support your beliefs but are more than happy to accept as gospel the a bunch of anonymous and often juvenile internet fora rants? If you are unwilling or too lazy to provide any evidence to defend your beliefs, then it implies they have no value - to me at least.

I've argued with Brendan on many topics over the years including on the wisdom of buying property even as a PPR but if you believe he holds particular positions/opinions because of "vested interests", you need your head examined. We are expected to entertain the idea that this Burgess character hatched a sneaky plan 10-15 years ago whereby he would spend half his free time involved in many real world VOLUNTARY and UNPAID consumer advocate groups and campaigns and set up one of the earliest Irish internet fora just so he could make a killing on AIB shares? One of these might also be of interest.

As an aside, I've been a vocal property bear on this site for years and yet I found the thread "future/current sentiment on Irish property" or whatever it was to be a complete waste of time after the first couple of pages.

 

[Derek123]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

The issue is not Brendan Burgesses integrity, it is his competence and tendenc to extreme views and over-simplistic analysis;

1. BB campaigned against all with profit funds and managed funds of all Life Offices except Equitable Life. He did so purely on the cost argument. Equitable Life was found to have cooked the books. It's costs were continuously criticised as was its policy of paying out future bonuses. BB ignored any opposing views because it suited his simplistic view that all life offices and brokers were ripping people off.

2. BB's book now taken off the site and all his pronouncements stated that the only way to go was shares and the only style was a 100% concentration on the ISEQ top shares. This was despite the huge concentration of risk and the self evident link to a property downturn or burst (given the unbalanced nature of the ISEQ and its bank weighting). His advice was a disaster and far higher risk than international diversification. Once again BB was taking the over-simplistic approach to write off the entire global and local fund industry.

3. BB campaigned against investors buying foreign property as if everyone was stupid. He openly sought to interfere in product marketing on several occassions as a guardian of the common good. While Irish investors have lost value across many markets few have been the disaster of the home market and many have still done well in markets that have held up. France, Germany, Holland to name a few. His equities-are-superior and property-is-bad is simply untrue.

4. BB openly campaigned against annuity mortgages believing interest only were better. He welcomed the introduction of 100% Interest Only mortgages and didn't lift a finger when Chairman of The Consumer Panel to encourage IFSRA to clamp down. This is his single greatest blindspot and a contributory factor to the burst. After all why would IFRSA clamp down on the mis-selling of debt when the Consumer panel was silent on it. BB was more focused on mis-selling investment products and tracker bond advertising. He had no feel for debt.

5. BB by his own admission concentrated his own wealth in the ISEQ ie lots of it in bank shares. His extraordinary comments on the RTE news in Sept 2008 could be regarded as an offense under the markets abuse directive as a self-serving intervention.

6. His LRC submission on debt resolution follows the same pattern of extremes, lack of research and over-simplicity. He has taken the view that these models, working successfully in other countries, will be abused as a get-out clause in Ireland. This presupposes that Irish people will deliberately opt for insolvency - a stunning conclusion. His addition to the Debt Advisory Group is fine in itself if the DOF wants extreme thinking to challenge the middle ground but BB certainly doesn't and can't represent consumers.

7. BB points to much activity but to no results. George Lee, Charlie Bird and Shane Ross have achieved much more than BB ever has despite his best efforts. That's because BB is not regarded within the media or the public as a credible commentator. Finally on Endowment Mortgages BB may have had things to say but it was Hobbs to took them out of commission - no pun intended.

 

[DingDing]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

I don't always agree with Brendan but I don't for one second doubt he has done more for consumers of financial services in this Country than the rest of us put together. I don't care if Brendan or anyone else said house prices would rise 1000%. I don't care if he said buy bank shares. I don't care if he said Mary Coughlan should be the leader of this country. None of that disqualifies him from being a suitable and welcome addition to the panel.

I agree, since I discovered AMM, I have used the information here to launch a successful appeal to the ombudsman regarding the actions of a bank. I have also got good advice from friends here on various financial products etc....

If the site had not been created Brendan could be sitting down now watching the RTE news like the rest of us and not trying to defend himself here.

If there were more people like Brendan, (who is entitled to his own opinion), and done so much for the Irish consumer.

Also the fact that he posts under his own name is to be aplauded.

I hope he continues the good work on AMM and is not discouraged by some of the negative comments here.

Well done Brendan and keep up the great work.

 

[Butter]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Here's my humble opinion for what it is worth....

A number of people have posted on this thread with a very small number of posts - what's the story there I wonder???

Brendan was not responsible for the boom and bust in this country - for God's sake he is one man with his own opinions - nobody has to listen to any one person's opinions. I really really don't like the personal attacks being made - it reminds me of other unnamed web-sites which have the same tone all the time.

A combination of factors came together in this country to create "the perfect storm" - we are not the first country to go through this and we won't be the last.

Every individual has to make their own mind up about whether to buy or sell a house, whether to buy or sell shares, whether to start or stop a pension. We live in a free country and must take responsibility for ourselves and our own decisions.

I know that I have found AAM a valuable resource for so many many things and I am glad it is here.

 

[jambo.ie]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

No one knows the answer to this question. One expert will argue confidently that Irish house prices must crash, while another will argue confidently that they must continue to rise. This post aims to summarise the arguments on both sides.

No matter what level house prices are at, some experts will argue that they are overpriced. Some people have long argued that prices are excessive, but prices have doubled since they began their forecasts of doom. See the links at the end of this post.

However, no matter how optimistic you are about property, most would agree that the risk of a serious fall in property prices has risen recently. This is not a prediction that house prices will fall. It is just a recognition that the level of risk has increased.

My two cents, and I doubt I'll contribute to this discussion further.

The segment of this post you have chosen to quote is for me damning enough in that you have vilified bears as 'doom forecasters'. It reminds me of the the distasteful comments from Bertie Ahern that the same bears should take their own lives. The comments on this thread regarding negativity are for me highly distasteful. The bears have been proven right regarding the Irish property bubble and as a rather late convert to their message I'm glad they saved me a now unthinkable amount of money.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Re: What I have actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Hi Folks

The purpose of this thread was to set the record straight and to correct the misquotes, and out of context quotes.

Despite that people continue to ignore the record and make broad sweeping allegations -

UFC accuses askaboutmoney of banning people from predicting house price falls, while allowing predictions of house price rises. UFC is too busy to find the price rise predictions, but has heard about it on The Property Pin, so it must be true.

Derek123 accuses me of "openly campaigning against annuity mortgages" despite my advice to people to get their mortgage down to a comfortable level of twice the gross salary and half the value of the home.

Derek123 accuses me of "campaigning against investing in foreign property" - guilty as charged.

jambo compares me to Bertie Ahern despite quoting what I actually said "However, no matter how optimistic you are about property, most would agree that the risk of a serious fall in property prices has risen recently."

If people have a view that I cheered on the property market and never spoke of the risk involved in purchasing property, then the facts won't shake them.

So I am closing this thread as it's taken up a huge amount of my time.

You can continue the discussion on The Property Pin.