Wow! If you can time markets with such precision you must be extraordinarily wealthy.
Perhaps you could let the rest of us in on the action.
I guess the answer to my question is no.any explanation as to why the s+ p shed 12% from around xmas of 2015 to around february 10th of 2016 and why its recovered more than 16% since then ? , bar a sharp drop in oil prices ( again due to shorting ) , there was no big catalyst at the time
those crashes ( and sharp falls ) had major causes , the sharp sell off in january of this year had no cause , that the market then recovered and made new highs for no apparent reason further distinguishes it from those examples you give , after black monday of 1987 , the market didnt make new highs for nearly two years
Well that was my point, you are basically saying the same as me now, but if you look back at your own posts from January you too were highly negative. The January sell off felt very real and everyone was talking about 2008 again, the markets were falling by 3% day after day on little news. Even George Soros chimed in with his 2008 prognosis during the height of it.
I think they blame computer algorithms programmed to follow patterns for most of the sell off now, if x at this when y at this then sell. Then suddenly we were in a bear market caused by computers, its only when the computers were switched off and rational minds began buying that january turned into a blip.
You might like this:the official reason given for the sell off at the start of the year was the huge drop in oil price and how it would effect the rest of the market , that oil has recovered so strongly in such a short period of time shows the drop was manipulated in the first place ( shorting ) , the big guns knew there was no danger to banks akin to the crisis of 2008
Indeed, it doesn't take genius to "predict" what happened in the past. It's especially handy that even if the past behaviour is somewhat inexplicable, you can fall back on conspiracy theories. You are guaranteed to never be wrong.i was not a market participant prior to early 2012 but it doesnt take a genius to know the 2008 crisis would eventually blow over
Indeed, it doesn't take genius to "predict" what happened in the past. It's especially handy that even if the past behaviour is somewhat inexplicable, you can fall back on conspiracy theories. You are guaranteed to never be wrong.
Look at last weeks lottery numbers: 2, 4, 5, 27, 40 and 47. It doesnt take a genius to know that the 10-25 number block would be underrepresented given it dominated previous drawings. Also, it's obvious that the numbers would eventually hit a 50-50 equilibrium between odd and even numbers after weeks of skewed results. And the lack of a jackpot winner just continued the pattern of the last few months so no surprises there.
Just because plenty of people "analyse" financial markets in this way, doesn't mean such analysis is anything but hot air. The skill is picking the winning horse before the race not the day after while reading the sports section of the newspaper. You seem to have convinced yourself that you have developed insight into market movements. Test yourself by committing now in writing where you think the main equity and commodity indices will be in, say, 3 months time. It's a lot harder, isn't it?
But anyway, this is exactly the sort of discussion that causes these threads to become derailed and useless. Using hindsight provides nothing useful to a discussion about buying equities now. Since Thargor first posted, the Vanguard global equity ETF is up almost 5%; in that time we've had brexit, a major escalation of terrorist attacks in the west, military coup in Turkey, etc. etc. It's all just noise.
so you think past trends in markets are irrelevant and should never be considered ?
Well since you claim dark sources manipulate the market, the trends are invalid since you have no way of knowing which ones have been manipulated and which ones not.
The folly of market timing.Vanguard ETFs were where I should have gone a couple of years ago but are mostly down on the year now same as most of the market.
Im basically frozen with indecision and need advice, any help appreciated. I dont really want to get a mortgage as I dont know if Im even staying in Ireland, Im 31 if that makes any difference.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?