Want to Invest but worried about Markets

Wow! If you can time markets with such precision you must be extraordinarily wealthy.

Perhaps you could let the rest of us in on the action.;)

i was not a market participant prior to early 2012 but it doesnt take a genius to know the 2008 crisis would eventually blow over , buffet was telling people to buy in late 2008 when the s+p was only slightly below 10000 , it fell more than 30% before bottoming , it was still a good buy when he said to do so but was a better buy in early 2009
 
any explanation as to why the s+ p shed 12% from around xmas of 2015 to around february 10th of 2016 and why its recovered more than 16% since then ? , bar a sharp drop in oil prices ( again due to shorting ) , there was no big catalyst at the time
I guess the answer to my question is no.
 
those crashes ( and sharp falls ) had major causes , the sharp sell off in january of this year had no cause , that the market then recovered and made new highs for no apparent reason further distinguishes it from those examples you give , after black monday of 1987 , the market didnt make new highs for nearly two years

Well that was my point, you are basically saying the same as me now, but if you look back at your own posts from January you too were highly negative. The January sell off felt very real and everyone was talking about 2008 again, the markets were falling by 3% day after day on little news. Even George Soros chimed in with his 2008 prognosis during the height of it.
I think they blame computer algorithms programmed to follow patterns for most of the sell off now, if x at this when y at this then sell. Then suddenly we were in a bear market caused by computers, its only when the computers were switched off and rational minds began buying that january turned into a blip.
 
Well that was my point, you are basically saying the same as me now, but if you look back at your own posts from January you too were highly negative. The January sell off felt very real and everyone was talking about 2008 again, the markets were falling by 3% day after day on little news. Even George Soros chimed in with his 2008 prognosis during the height of it.
I think they blame computer algorithms programmed to follow patterns for most of the sell off now, if x at this when y at this then sell. Then suddenly we were in a bear market caused by computers, its only when the computers were switched off and rational minds began buying that january turned into a blip.

the official reason given for the sell off at the start of the year was the huge drop in oil price and how it would effect the rest of the market , that oil has recovered so strongly in such a short period of time shows the drop was manipulated in the first place ( shorting ) , the big guns knew there was no danger to banks akin to the crisis of 2008
 
the official reason given for the sell off at the start of the year was the huge drop in oil price and how it would effect the rest of the market , that oil has recovered so strongly in such a short period of time shows the drop was manipulated in the first place ( shorting ) , the big guns knew there was no danger to banks akin to the crisis of 2008
You might like this:
http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/07/29/smart-sounding-reasons-during-sell-as-the-market-s.aspx
 
i was not a market participant prior to early 2012 but it doesnt take a genius to know the 2008 crisis would eventually blow over
Indeed, it doesn't take genius to "predict" what happened in the past. It's especially handy that even if the past behaviour is somewhat inexplicable, you can fall back on conspiracy theories. You are guaranteed to never be wrong.

Look at last weeks lottery numbers: 2, 4, 5, 27, 40 and 47. It doesnt take a genius to know that the 10-25 number block would be underrepresented given it dominated previous drawings. Also, it's obvious that the numbers would eventually hit a 50-50 equilibrium between odd and even numbers after weeks of skewed results. And the lack of a jackpot winner just continued the pattern of the last few months so no surprises there.

Just because plenty of people "analyse" financial markets in this way, doesn't mean such analysis is anything but hot air. The skill is picking the winning horse before the race not the day after while reading the sports section of the newspaper. You seem to have convinced yourself that you have developed insight into market movements. Test yourself by committing now in writing where you think the main equity and commodity indices will be in, say, 3 months time. It's a lot harder, isn't it?

But anyway, this is exactly the sort of discussion that causes these threads to become derailed and useless. Using hindsight provides nothing useful to a discussion about buying equities now. Since Thargor first posted, the Vanguard global equity ETF is up almost 5%; in that time we've had brexit, a major escalation of terrorist attacks in the west, military coup in Turkey, etc. etc. It's all just noise.
 
Indeed, it doesn't take genius to "predict" what happened in the past. It's especially handy that even if the past behaviour is somewhat inexplicable, you can fall back on conspiracy theories. You are guaranteed to never be wrong.

Look at last weeks lottery numbers: 2, 4, 5, 27, 40 and 47. It doesnt take a genius to know that the 10-25 number block would be underrepresented given it dominated previous drawings. Also, it's obvious that the numbers would eventually hit a 50-50 equilibrium between odd and even numbers after weeks of skewed results. And the lack of a jackpot winner just continued the pattern of the last few months so no surprises there.

Just because plenty of people "analyse" financial markets in this way, doesn't mean such analysis is anything but hot air. The skill is picking the winning horse before the race not the day after while reading the sports section of the newspaper. You seem to have convinced yourself that you have developed insight into market movements. Test yourself by committing now in writing where you think the main equity and commodity indices will be in, say, 3 months time. It's a lot harder, isn't it?

But anyway, this is exactly the sort of discussion that causes these threads to become derailed and useless. Using hindsight provides nothing useful to a discussion about buying equities now. Since Thargor first posted, the Vanguard global equity ETF is up almost 5%; in that time we've had brexit, a major escalation of terrorist attacks in the west, military coup in Turkey, etc. etc. It's all just noise.

so you think past trends in markets are irrelevant and should never be considered ?
 
so you think past trends in markets are irrelevant and should never be considered ?

Well since you claim dark sources manipulate the market, the trends are invalid since you have no way of knowing which ones have been manipulated and which ones not.
 
Well since you claim dark sources manipulate the market, the trends are invalid since you have no way of knowing which ones have been manipulated and which ones not.

i dont remember referring to them as dark , rigged is probably the wrong word to use but the markets are manipulated by big money in the short term , there was no reason for the big sell off in january of this year , that oil recovered from $27 per barrel to $50 within four months shows you that market was also manipulated by financial market engineering
 
Vanguard ETFs were where I should have gone a couple of years ago but are mostly down on the year now same as most of the market.

Im basically frozen with indecision and need advice, any help appreciated. I dont really want to get a mortgage as I dont know if Im even staying in Ireland, Im 31 if that makes any difference.
The folly of market timing.

If you had invested a portion of your savings in the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF as of when you created this thread, you'd be up about 6%.
 
It is interesting that back in January when the market was tanking, this site had plenty of people including myself giving their theories and what was happening, the general trust was negative and some people had sold their investments or were waiting it out. It turned out to be a great buying opportunity but hardly anyone was saying that. Now after the big rally which even shook off the brexit crisis, there is little comment. If people were rational well surely now would be a time to start going negative and talking about maybe taking some money out of the markets
 
I would suggest to anyone wanting to take control of their investing to go onto 'The Book Depository' and getting 'The Little Book of Behavioral Investing' and 'A Wealth of Common Sense'.
Follow that up with 'Fooled by Randomness' (all very enjoyable reads).
also,
Study up the various risks associated with investing (market, asset, sector, geographical, currency inflation .....).
Do whatever allows you to sleep well at night.
 
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