Venezuela Crisis

Folsom

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Juan Guaidó is claiming to have the support of the military and has called on the people to rise up against Maduro.

If he has the support of the military, and the people reign in behind him, Maduro will be gone in a matter of days.
 

Purple

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The Military is entwined in every facet of life in Venezuela. It is impossible to say where they stop and politics starts or where they stop and industry starts. There is no "The Military".
 

joe sod

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probably because, russia and china are backing maduro, it has given him some power and spooked the military out of over throwing him. Following the failure of the military coup in turkey to overthrow erdogen and then the severe repurcussions on the coup leaders means that military coups are a high risk game for the leaders. If it wasn't for social media, the turkish coup would have succeeded, erdogen was almost extinguished except for his face and voice on apple facetime.
On the other hand venezuala is in the US back yard, China or Russia could never intervene militarily, like putin did in syria, this is merely to irritate the the US and to ensure the US does not do anything silly in UKraine. The US is in control of venezuala economically, therefore madura does not have a future. It looks like he is there for a bit longer now but he is no Fidel castro
 

Folsom

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and spooked the military out of over throwing him.
Or possibly Guadió does not have the military support that he proclaims to have. By my reasoning this was a CIA induced attempt to provoke Maduro into an aggressive crackdown. Providing the US with its 'justification' for military intervention.
 

Folsom

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Shocking and disturbing accounts being reported at the Venezuelan embassy in Washington.
There is a pro-Gaudio mob trying to break-in and intimidate the occupants - police and secret service standing idly by.
 

joe sod

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Shocking and disturbing accounts being reported at the Venezuelan embassy in Washington.
There is a pro-Gaudio mob trying to break-in and intimidate the occupants - police and secret service standing idly by.
probably venezuelan ex pats forced out of venezuala due to the disastrous economic policies pursued by maduro and chavez before him.
Its hardly unprecedented for an embassy to be targeted like that, remember the british embassy in dublin was burnt after the bloody sunday shootings. Did not the guards stand by and allow the "mob" to vent their fury. its actually a similar situation in washington now.
 

Folsom

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probably venezuelan ex pats forced out of venezuala due to the disastrous economic policies pursued by maduro and chavez before him.
Its hardly unprecedented for an embassy to be targeted like that, remember the british embassy in dublin was burnt after the bloody sunday shootings. Did not the guards stand by and allow the "mob" to vent their fury. its actually a similar situation in washington now.
You could very well be right. You would hardly condone it though would you?

The comparison with Bloody Sunday though is a bit of a stretch. Thirteen Irish people were shot dead during a protest march for civil rights. I can understand how Irish Gardai would feel emotive too.
I dont really get why US police and secret service would be so emotive as to what is occurring in Venezuela as to neglect their duty?
Perhaps if some of the pro-Gaudio Venezuelan community in Ireland attack the Venezuelan embassy in Ireland we will be able to gauge the level of emotion running through foreign police forces and security services by observing how the Gardai react?
 

joe sod

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in any case i dont see the US intervening militarily, its too high risk, they just have to wait for the regime to crumble itself, trump for all his faults is not an interventionist, he does not have the foibles of obama et al, so he can sit and watch the turmoil in venezuala. Maduro can not survive, he does not have a big backer, russia and china are just blustering, russia really wants relief from the sanctions which is in trumps gift, china wants a trade deal with the US so is not going to mess around with the US on this issue. Yes with rising oil prices china would love to get venezualan oil , (yes china and india are buyers but not directly and not the quantities that the venezualan economy needs and not at full oil price, and they have reduced considerably their buying) but a trade deal with the US is way more important.
Also hugo chavez at least had charisma, maduro lacks any of these qualities, everything is against him
 

Folsom

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All of that may be true. But I think the sinister element of all of this is that the US, is outright interfering in the sovereign affairs of another foreign nation, and, according to reports in Washington, has abdicated its legal responsibility to provide protection and security to the embassies under the Geneva convention.
This is outright unaccountable corporate fascism at play. The daunting reality is that there is no-one capable of standing up to it.
 

Purple

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The Americans are doing what countries have done since Rome and before it. The British and French invaded Egypt to stop them defaulting on loans taken from their banks. The British East India Company, The Dutch East India Company they were all doing the same thing. The Trosian was were over trade routes. At least this time there aren't hundreds of thousands of civilians being killed. Not yet anyway.
 

Purple

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As for fascism, how is Maduro or Chavez before him any better? They have bankrupted their country and oppressed their people. Left wing totalitarianism is just as bad as right wing totalitarianism.
 

Folsom

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Totally agree.
But my limited knowledge of affairs in Venezuela keeps throwing up the same conundrum - why would a country, with vast oil resources and by most accounts, a vibrant, industrious middle-class, vote in left-wing socialist totalitarian like Chavez or Maduro?

The only plausible explanation I can think of is that there is an underbelly of working poor that live in sub-standard accommodation, inadequate access to health services, education, employment. Violent crimes like murder occur without any meaningful investigation from the authorities and drug cartels try dictate the order of the day. This in life in the 'barrios'.
The problem as I see it, is that Venezuela has too many people living in poverty, and for a country with the oil resources it has, that is a political failure.
What Chavez did was organize the poor into a political force. Not only that, he began to deliver on his promise of using Venezuelas wealth to build houses and schools for the poor - this is the revolution. The poor have being doing this through the ages. Once organized, and with the political will, democracy can be an inconvenient pill to swallow for some.
That said, those whose legitimate stakes, or contracts have been usurped, are deserving of some compensation.
Negotiation is the way forward. Corporate US needs to acknowledge what prompted this revolution. It cannot hide behind 'free market' ideology and continually stamp its feet behind the war dogs in Washington.
 

Purple

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It is deeply misguided to see "Corporate US needs" as the driving force behind Venezuela's problems.
 

Folsom

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Its hard to see what else. US intervention is certainly not for the interests and welfare of the Venezuelan people. It is certainly not for the interests of democracy.
 

Purple

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Its hard to see what else.
It's politics and it's what countries have always done. Calling it "corporate" sounds silly in that it presents it is that teenaged socialist sort of anti-Capitalism way as it Capitalism is an ideology and countries only started exploiting each other for money after the international banking system emerged.

US intervention is certainly not for the interests and welfare of the Venezuelan people. It is certainly not for the interests of democracy.
I agree but that's not the reason the country is a basket case. This is a good summary of the modern crisis, started by Chavez in 1998. Remember that he was a former General who stages a failed Coup attempt a few years before that so his democratic credentials were always suspect.
Even before his the country was grossly corrupt, economically mismanaged and run for a small rich elite with close ties to the Military. He just made things far worse.
 
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