US Presidential Election 2024

Duke of Marmalade said:
After that cringemaking performance I think Biden should be investigated for having bets that he will lose the election.
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Witty but I can't raise a laugh given the stakes!
I thought Biden was solid on his trip to Ireland but really showing his age last night.
His VP pick underwhelming also, who normally would be the logical choice to pass the baton to.
It is not as if there's a line up of obviously electable Democratic candidates.

I think Biden has done a decent job as President given the constraints he faces of anti-everything Republicans in Congress
I would choose an aging Biden over Trump any day, but I don't know if the Democrats can afford to risk it given the vagaries of US voting.
Perhaps we will see something dramatic happen at the Democratic convention.
 
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It shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone who has been watching for last 2 years, he's been getting progressively worse, he's no longer his own man and needs to absent himself from the race, either he does it or Senior Democrats will.

I can see Michelle Obama stepping in....his VP is weak in every possible way to the point of being useless.

Sadly this is Trumps to lose.
 
My favourite political commentator Betfair. These are the current prices to win the US presidency.
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To explain how to interpret these prices. Take the mid price i.e. 6.3 for Joe and invert it it get 1/6.3 = 16% chance of winning.
The Donald is 59% chance of winning (so not home and hosed yet). Newsom is 1/8.1 = 12%
Up until just a few weeks ago they were neck and neck at 2.2 (45%). Even yesterday Joe was at 3.0 (33%).
Of interest is the betting on the Democratic nominee:
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Joe is odds on (just) at 56% and Newsom is 22%.
But we can now work out what the conditional chances of either of these winning, given that they are the nominee.
Joe is 16%/56% = 29% and Newsom is12%/22% = 55% i.e. he would be favourite in a dual between himself and the Donald. Maybe the men in grey suits in the Democratic Party knew what they were doing with this very early debate - there is still time to change horses. The Donald may regret having so thoroughly beat up Joe last night.
I think Joe is still favourite to be the nominee just because he is the incumbent - I suggest a good bet would be to lay Joe at 1.78 not to be the nominee.
(Disclaimer - I have no inside information on the US election goings on, betting on elections can not only run a risk of monetary loss but of being investigated)
 
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Carrying the horse racing analogy a stage further, here is Gavin Newsom's form:
Chronic dyslexia as a child, special needs education. He still prefers his reports in audio form rather than written.
Took treatment for alcohol use disorder.
Admitted an affair with the wife of his best friend.
He "identifies" as a Irish Catholic rebel.
Oh, and he is Governor of California
 
Mitch Benn on Twitter

Americans today: Oh dear, the kindly old gentleman stumbled over his words, we shall have to vote for the one who’s MAD AND EVIL

https://twitter.com/MitchBenn/status/1806654290275999908
 
only saw a small bit of it ,what would have been the effect of audience and no mute button (also fact check)
last time they just went at it .maybe it what was needed to get biden going ,ok some weren't trilled with that last time ,maybe his advisors discouraged that tactic this time
he then got caught on the back foot and failed to recover?
i assume the polls are showing trump for a win now?
next biden ad should should trump at podium and fact checking what he said
 
johnwilliams said:
only saw a small bit of it ,what would have been the effect of audience and no mute button (also fact check)
last time they just went at it .maybe it what was needed to get biden going ,ok some weren't trilled with that last time ,maybe his advisors discouraged that tactic this time
he then got caught on the back foot and failed to recover?
i assume the polls are showing trump for a win now?
next biden ad should should trump at podium and fact checking what he said
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The Donald's base is unmovable. They know he has a thing for porn stars, they know he cheats in business, they know he's a fan of Putin, they know he encouraged the Capitol riots, they know he lies.
The problem with last night's performance is that Biden shows he is totally unfit for president. So whilst this is a re-run of 2020, The Donald will get the same vote but surely Biden will lose enough votes for the tables to be turned.
They really have to put in an alternative, I will make myself available if they are really stuck.
 
almost feel sorry for the Americans, which doddery old white guy do you want, the dirty old crook or the slightly senile one. It's like a bad episode of the odd couple
 
heard he had a cold and horse throat ,now the week before he was supposed to be on the low practicing debating,
could he have actually been sick ,the meds he was taking hadn't worn off ,kind of explain the difference with his campaign speech/energy the following day
i understand the democratic convention is not till august ,should he try for a second debate next week or so ?
i know trumps advisors would be against it but i think trump might go for it after the other night (another chance to beat biden)
 
johnwilliams said:
heard he had a cold and horse throat ,now the week before he was supposed to be on the low practicing debating,
could he have actually been sick ,the meds he was taking hadn't worn off ,kind of explain the difference with his campaign speech/energy the following day
i understand the democratic convention is not till august ,should he try for a second debate next week or so ?
i know trumps advisors would be against it but i think trump might go for it after the other night (another chance to beat biden)
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He had senior moments all over the place. What will he be like in 4 years time? :eek:
 
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