Upto 100k Investment

galway_blow_in said:
fixed income is where people go at times of uncertainty , regardless of value , you could argue that the logical investment right now is mining or energy stocks , afterall they are historically cheap
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I'm not trying to argue that anybody should invest in any particular asset class based on whatever valuation formula you fancy. I'm arguing that nobody can accurately predict the future and you don't have the benefit of a rear-view mirror in making investment decisions.
 
Sarenco said:
I'm not trying to argue that anybody should invest in any particular asset class based on whatever valuation formula you fancy. I'm arguing that nobody can accurately predict the future and you don't have the benefit of a rear-view mirror in making investment decisions.
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every decision is made within the context of a specific time , right now , would you be more inclined to invest in equities or wait ? , if i was the OP i would wait as the market has a very negative mood right now , its also been a very long time since there was a major correction , the odds of a bear market are clearly higher today than they were three years ago
 
galway_blow_in said:
every decision is made within the context of a specific time , right now , would you be more inclined to invest in equities or wait ? , if i was the OP i would wait as the market has a very negative mood right now , its also been a very long time since there was a major correction , the odds of a bear market are clearly higher today than they were three years ago
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The best time to invest in stocks was always yesterday. When is the second best time to invest? Today.

I simply do not believe it is, or ever was, possible to time the markets.
 
Sarenco said:
The best time to invest in stocks was always yesterday. When is the second best time to invest? Today.

I simply do not believe it is, or ever was, possible to time the markets.
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with respect , i dont think your in a strong position to be glib , look at whats happening today
 
galway_blow_in said:
with respect , i dont think your in a strong position to be glib , look at whats happening today
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In defence of Sarenco, who I genuinely believe has a wealth of knowledge on the stock market far exceeding most contributors on this site, stocks do go up and down and if every time investors pulled out there money after a 10 or 15% correction on average they would probably lose money. I lost approximately 11% by doing this a few months back. I would like to believe I read the fundamentals correctly at that time, however I cannot dismiss that it was partly blind luck. Of course the stock market might rise again in the next few months once again exposing my mistake. Although after looking at all the current fundamentals recently my instincts tell me I made the right decision.
 
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galway_blow_in said:
with respect , i dont think your in a strong position to be glib , look at whats happening today
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My apologies, I didn't mean to be glib - I was simply trying to articulate my point in a single phrase.

I'll try and explain my position in more detail:-

Stocks fell today. They rose yesterday. I didn't know in advance that this was going to happen so I didn't take any action.

They might collapse in value tomorrow or they might rocket. Again, I don't know what's going to happen in the future so I'm not going to take any action today.

I might predict what's going to happen in the future. My prediction might be right or it might be wrong. I can use any number of charts and formulae to justify my prediction but ultimately I know that the markets won't necessarily conform to my charts or formulae.

All I know is what happened in the past and today's values. From this information, I can formulate a reasonable expectation as to what might be the return on my chosen stock portfolio over the medium to long term (15-40 years). And even then I have to accept that my expectations will almost certainly turn out to be wide of the mark.

I certainly accept that the stock market is not entirely efficient. The problem is I'm not smart enough to spot the inefficiencies in time to benefit from them. Nor am I smart enough to pick a manager who will spot and exploit these inefficiencies on a consistent basis on my behalf over my investment horizon.

So there it is - I simply don't believe it is or ever was possible to time the markets.

You are obviously free to disagree with me and if you consistently call market turns over your investment horizon you should become very wealthy.
 
I read an article yesterday on the commodities markets today and how they are dominated by speculators, for example today the oil market is 70 percent speculation and 30 percent industry buying and selling. However before 1999 it was the opposite 70 percent industry and 30 percent speculation. I think deregulation again in 1999 is the reason for this. A 1.5 million barrels oversupply in the 94 million market has caused this but with speculation really the driving force just the same as speculation drove the price to 150 dollars in 2008.
 
If you go to an advisor and ask what's the "best" fund in which you can invest they will come back with what they think is the 'best' fund. But you really should state your investment objective i.e. 'I've got 100k to invest and need to pay approx. X euro in ten years for my kids' education. So, (a) what strategy do you propose to meet this objective and (b) what financial products do you propose to fulfill this?'

Where I would have a concern with what is proposed is that you are being asked to invest everything in a single fund. GARS is an absolute return fund and while investing is such products as part of a diversified portfolio of investments may be appropriate, you should reflect if it is prudent to invest all your money in a single product with a single investment policy? Also have the financial advisers demonstrated to you that the GARS objective, i.e. the return on cash, as measured by the European Interbank Rate, plus 5%, over a rolling three year period, before fees, will meet your objective, considering the risks involved in investing all your money in this product?

There is a lot of information on GARS and absolute return investing on the Standard Life web site and it would be prudent to familiarize yourself with this before you invest. Note I'm not knocking GARS and have a reasonable investment in it myself, but it is as part of a diversified portfolio. If it, or any other part of the portfolio, fails to deliver I'd be hurt but not devastated. If you are investing for your kids' education you have to ask yourself if it is prudent to invest all in a single product, be it GARS or otherwise.
 
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Excellent advice PMU,and thanks to all people who posted.I will invest in Gars but also split the sum in maybe savings bonds in An Post and ask my financial adviser to spread the investment over different products.I do not need access to the funds and am just trying to find the right balance between security and a return on my investment.
 
GARS is a hedge fund. Would you feel comfortable allocating a significant portion of your wealth to a hedge fund?
 
castle4 said:
In your experience Gordon,what would you recommend to invest in.Open to all suggestions .
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My worry is that the financial advisers you've met with are more worried about the €5,000 they'll get upfront and the €500 they'll get each year for putting you into GARS.

You mention that the money will be required in 7/10 years and that you've no pension. What's your annual income and how old are you? And the same for your wife? How much debt do you have? What interest rates apply? What other assets do you have?
 
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