Too much cash savings - how to protect against possible hyperinflation?

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Joe sod, some interesting questions which I will try to answer.

I started when it was a very different world. The environment was simpler and more traditional. Investing was primarily the preserve of the wealthy and financial information was hard to acquire. Newspapers and annual reports, endless form filling and tons of paperwork right down to the share certificates themselves. So my first observation is that it seemed simpler to choose companies but more complex to get it done. Organic growth was more predictable and steady as you suggest in traditional industries that had stood the test of time. The age of disruption had not really gathered pace and globalisation, as we know it today, was only ramping up.

Buffett sold Gillette to P&G and effectively took the payment by way of shares in P&G. Beneath his folksy exterior is a really sharp mind. And he's man enough to admit when he gets it wrong which I admire e.g. not investing in tech because he didn't understand it. Now that he has some younger people working with him, he does or they do on his behalf.

The game changer, the leveller, and the equaliser was the advent of the internet. Information and education is now available to anybody. We can learn about all sorts of things. And that's an investors friend. The downside is that we're battered with information 24/7 and that's a challenge to manage. That we are better informed, able to share and better off because of this and other technology is great. The choice for investments is now bewildering. And it's complex in a different way, by its sophistication, speed and transparency. But I think that the same basic tenets hold true.

And yes, I stuck with the software company right through to today. Software fuelled computers and one company did it better than anyone else. I viewed it as petrol in a car. Much better gross margins, hard to copy and PC's could not operate without it. Very sophisticated analysis. I stayed the course through thick and thin because I regarded the company as an unregulated super monopoly. And I got lucky. I missed others because I was too conservative or to quote Buffett, I didn't understand what they did. But many of the more traditional businesses did very well over the years and still do. They paid dividends and bought back shares. And almost all of us use their products or services in one way or another. Market dominance, fortress balance sheets, great management, enviable margins and sensible growth.
 
Joe sod, some interesting questions which I will try to answer.

I started when it was a very different world. The environment was simpler and more traditional. Investing was primarily the preserve of the wealthy and financial information was hard to acquire. Newspapers and annual reports, endless form filling and tons of paperwork right down to the share certificates themselves. So my first observation is that it seemed simpler to choose companies but more complex to get it done. Organic growth was more predictable and steady as you suggest in traditional industries that had stood the test of time. The age of disruption had not really gathered pace and globalisation, as we know it today, was only ramping up.

Buffett sold Gillette to P&G and effectively took the payment by way of shares in P&G. Beneath his folksy exterior is a really sharp mind. And he's man enough to admit when he gets it wrong which I admire e.g. not investing in tech because he didn't understand it. Now that he has some younger people working with him, he does or they do on his behalf.

The game changer, the leveller, and the equaliser was the advent of the internet. Information and education is now available to anybody. We can learn about all sorts of things. And that's an investors friend. The downside is that we're battered with information 24/7 and that's a challenge to manage. That we are better informed, able to share and better off because of this and other technology is great. The choice for investments is now bewildering. And it's complex in a different way, by its sophistication, speed and transparency. But I think that the same basic tenets hold true.

And yes, I stuck with the software company right through to today. Software fuelled computers and one company did it better than anyone else. I viewed it as petrol in a car. Much better gross margins, hard to copy and PC's could not operate without it. Very sophisticated analysis. I stayed the course through thick and thin because I regarded the company as an unregulated super monopoly. And I got lucky. I missed others because I was too conservative or to quote Buffett, I didn't understand what they did. But many of the more traditional businesses did very well over the years and still do. They paid dividends and bought back shares. And almost all of us use their products or services in one way or another. Market dominance, fortress balance sheets, great management, enviable margins and sensible growth.
Ok
 
Buffett invested in Apple, but I think you invested in Microsoft ,can I ask you when did you make this investment, I also invested in it but only in 2011, but sold in 2018, more fool I , that's the hardest bit, staying with a winner
 
Late 80’s so I had considerable upside before the lost years where it didn’t do much but under Balmer. I have some Apple but late 00’s.

Buffett in now the largest shareholder in Apple and had doubled his investment before this volatility.

The recent bull market has been excessive and was due for a pullback. There’s a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for entry points even before the correction.

You cannot be blamed for exiting given average performance during the timeframe you mentioned. I did similar with Amazon because they had no profits and that didn’t make sense. Now I understand it but that’s one for learning. I am still not interested in the new age growth at all costs, never mind profits, even though I know many do very well. I question how long this can continue.

Never worry about the one that got away because the next one is around the corner.
 
@Fidgety to be an in investor in an American software company in the late 80s before Windows and before the internet took some foresight, well done on that. What's your opinions on technology today, do you think the rate of change will continue, I don't think it will, I think the low hanging fruit has already been picked, I think improvements in technology will be very hard won, elon musk et al have a much harder task than Bill gates in the late 80s. It won't be as profitable either even if the technology turns out to be good
 
If I was the OP, I’d clear my mortage, invest €250-300k in global equities (right now), and I’d keep €40-90k in cash. The variability is based on my lack of knowledge of the OP’s net income per year. Whatever that is, I’d keep one year’s worth of it in cash.
 
I would agree Gordon Gekko. With uncertain future income, it seems sensible to have more cash inland than normal. And we tend not to price in the safety aspect of knowing there is cash on hand to weather any unforeseen circumstances. And while you can convert equities to cash quickly, in the current volatility, markets may well swing wildly until we have a handle on this virus.
 
Joe sod, if someone had invested in technology large caps in the past 5 years, the gains would be considerable, Microsoft trebled in 3, Apple doubled in 1, not to mention Tesla but nobody could have expected those unsustainable returns. With Tesla, Musk is shredding conventional wisdom and attracting a frenzy of investor interest. Too frothy for me at these levels but I believe he's the battery innovator and has leading edge technology that few others can catch. The headwinds are numerous and his competitors well armed but I admire his courage. The vision that you can tile your roof with solar cells, harvest the energy to use to power your home and store the excess in batteries for off peak usage strikes me as bold. That you can generate the fuel for your car in this way, with range increasing, and updates over wifi seems like a potential unassailable moat. Better still, it's green technology at a time when we're under assault with global warming and it's devastating impact. But the posse are coming, he has to deliver the numbers and he's burning capital at an alarming rate.

The large unregulated monopolies in technology will continue to innovate and thrive. The financial and market firepower at their disposal is immense. I don't see that changing any time soon because the barriers to entry are simply too high. A couple have been overlooked and not delivered on their true potential so perhaps there's opportunity with this volatility to grab a few and see what happens. On the wider front, I agree that much of the low hanging fruit appears to have been priced in on the established names but that's often been said before and still they forged ahead. With this volatility, large corporations will press home their advantage putting smaller rivals under intense pressure. They'll likely use their cash to increase share buy backs and many will move the supply chain infrastructure out of China and closer to the consumer. In more traditional industries, similar consolidation will occur for many of the same reasons. The weak, poorly capitalised smaller competitive rivals are vulnerable to the impact of this virus and it's paralysing effect on normal consumer behaviour. And in times of fear, we tend to hoard and not spend as normal so that's going to have a considerable impact on our economies. Bargains will present themselves across a wide range of industries and our innovative nature will accelerate.
 
If I was the OP, I’d clear my mortage, invest €250-300k in global equities (right now), and I’d keep €40-90k in cash. The variability is based on my lack of knowledge of the OP’s net income per year. Whatever that is, I’d keep one year’s worth of it in cash.
Fantastic to see a post on topic, actually offering advice. The advice here is valid at any time to someone in the OPs circumstances.

The OP is stressed about a level of hyperinflation that would lead to a demise of one of the world's most widely used currencies. They've mentioned already irrational thinking - and the thread descends into stories about stock picking! Hardly appropriate, especially in those circumstances.
 
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Interesting thread - I'm in a similar position to the OP - have too much savings in cash and not sure what to do to protect and grow it. Mortage cleared and income secure. The answer seems to be invest a portion of it in a portofolio of diversified equities and possibly bonds but the question is how do it? How do you know who to trust in the investment houses and honestly how much should you be paying annually for their services?
 
Physical gold requires storage and holding costs, associated transaction costs.

you can hold a couple of dozen coins in a tin. There's no storage or holding costs. To sell, you phone ahead, fix your price then send by reg post. Simple really
 
Physical gold requires storage and holding costs, associated transaction costs.

you can hold a couple of dozen coins in a tin. There's no storage or holding costs. To sell, you phone ahead, fix your price then send by reg post. Simple really

What is the spread on physical gold coins... And how exact is the linkage with gold prices (I know it's a driver but unless you're melting down the coins it isn't a 1:1). I'm guessing gold could rise 20% and still not have broken even
 
What is the spread on physical gold coins... And how exact is the linkage with gold prices (I know it's a driver but unless you're melting down the coins it isn't a 1:1). I'm guessing gold could rise 20% and still not have broken even
Depends on the size. On a 1oz coin you're looking at about 6.5% spread at best. Anything smaller has a bigger spread.
The linkage to spot price is very good; Gold coins are made for investment, so you're buying the gold, not the coin quality. However, at times there is demand for specific coins that are in short supply, pushing the price up. There's no benefit in holding these over any other coin, or bar, when it comes to selling them.
 
Gold is not an effective hedge as long as counterparty risk does not rise, US Treasuries are a better hedge.
 
Thanks all for your varied responses. Already feels like a totally different world to two weeks ago when I first posted this. Since then I've bought a little bit of gold as security, and the stock market has already reacted so I'm staying away from there.
My concern now is the slashing of interest rates worldwide and deposit 'bail-ins' that seem likely to follow.

Metatron, could you elaborate as to why?

No chance of hyperinflation so thread is moot
 
If you had taken this advice on Monday, you would have probably lost about 10% of the amount invested in global equities unless you were very lucky. 25,000 to 30,000 is a lot of dough.

Ah yes, the famous three day equity investment strategy :rolleyes: . If you're advocating staying in cash, at least make an argument
 
MeIF,

If you had taken this advice on Monday, you would have probably lost about 10% of the amount invested in global equities unless you were very lucky. 25,000 to 30,000 is a lot of dough.

No you wouldn’t. A loss is only a loss when it is realised. We’d have ascertained the OP’s time-horizon, made it clear that the portfolio could fall in value initially, and reassured the OP that the plan remains sound. Long term wealth should not be managed based on short-term noise.

Monday morning quarterbacking isn’t particularly clever. Part of the reason that equities deliver the best returns is the fact that it’s not an easy ride; if equity investing was easy, everyone would do it.
 
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