The next recession

[NoRegretsCoyote]

The same criteria as usual, two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP.

Completely meaningless in Ireland. A big firm can close down a production line and this will happen.

In the 96 quarters since 1995 I calculate 10 instances of two quarters of declining quarter-on-quarter GDP.

Do you remember the recession over the winter of 2015, or the summer of 2007?

Of course not, because they are just statistical artefacts.

 

[Leo]

and we have the graduates they require.

You might be surprised how many roles in these firms are currently being filled by graduates from across the EU and even beyond. We're a long way short of producing enough graduates here.

 

[cremeegg]

The Govt does not do this, they do not "pick and choose commodities".

The CSO construct the CPI, and the CPI basket is carefully constructed to reflect consumers spending patterns.

And do so in alignment with the rest of the EU.

 

[noproblem]

You might be surprised how many roles in these firms are currently being filled by graduates from across the EU and even beyond. We're a long way short of producing enough graduates here.

Indeed, but you should have taken what I said in its full context and not nitty pick. An awful lot of graduate programmes in our Uni's and colleges are there because of collaboration between firms, Govt and educationalists on what's needed for their needs. In any case, it's not in FDI firms interests to abandon Ireland in the near future, it's their future too.

 

[cremeegg]

All of the other categories are basically public service and non traded sectors, they are not wealth creators. The multi nationals are wealth creators and are our most important wealth creators but behind them is the agriculture industry. Raw materials grown in ireland are processed here , wealth creation, and by and large sold on the international markets.

Irish agriculture does not create wealth.

Taking subsidies and using that to grow raw materials which sell for the price of the subsidies is not wealth creation.

Doing this so that Irish, and other European, farmers can continue to live on the land is wealth destructive, and it undermines the ability of third country farmers to make a living, which is deeply immoral.

 

[Leo]

Indeed, but you should have taken what I said in its full context and not nitty pick. An awful lot of graduate programmes in our Uni's and colleges are there because of collaboration between firms, Govt and educationalists on what's needed for their needs.

OK, so in full context, we are clearly not as you claimed 'the only game in town for foreign companies'. In 2018 we were in 4th place in Europe for US FDI attracting about half the investment the Netherlands did.

I work in a US multinational, we partner with a number of Uni's, sponsoring a couple of post grad and internship programs. More than half our recruits still come from overseas.

 

[cremeegg]

I work in a US multinational, we partner with a number of Uni's, sponsoring a couple of post grad and internship programs. More than half our recruits still come from overseas.

I hope you will forgive me for digressing, but with a clutch hoping to graduate in the next few years, I am very interested in this point.

Half your recruits come from overseas, what sort of opportunities are these, post grad internships ?, why are Irish graduates not taking up more of them.

 

[Leo]

I hope you will forgive me for digressing, but with a clutch hoping to graduate in the next few years, I am very interested in this point.

Half your recruits come from overseas, what sort of opportunities are these, post grad internships ?, why are Irish graduates not taking up more of them.

It's not that Irish graduates aren't taking them up, it's more that Irish uni's aren't producing nearly enough graduates to satisfy demand across the sector.

We're typically looking at 20-30 IT graduate level roles each year, our activities in sponsoring programs with the colleges is to get ahead of other companies in attracting graduates from these programs.

 

[BilliamD75]

As regards interest rates I heard last week they are on the way down. Not up.

Interest rates are on the way down short term as Draghi says more stimulus may be required. That has been his position from the start. He leaves in a few weeks then things will change.
The next recession could be looking straight at us. On a macro level the economy is at full tilt, the nama liquidity (in construction) is coming to an end, interest rates will rise putting pressure on government revenue. Taxation will increase both direct and indirectly to cover the interest costs on the debt, the government are maxed out and will not have the liquidity to put into the economy when needed.
On a micro level house price inflation is cooling, with rising interest rates and taxation household budgets will be squeezed,those who have some savings will manage. broad strokes here but we are a resilient bunch and will get through it, the lower the low in interest rates the higher the high in the cycle when it turns, this is what will cause the next recession in my opinion

 

[joe sod]

@BilliamD75

are you sure about this !!, I think you are wrong there is no way the ECB can raise interest rates, the european economy has stagnated, german manufacturing output has gone down, the european stock markets have barely moved snice 2015, hardly the conditions for raising interest rates.
Look at what the Fed has just done , even with booming US economy and record employment levels they have stopped raising interest rates and are about to reduce them again.
As for construction, they dont have the capacity to build what is demanded, they dont have the workers, they can only build 15,000 units a year when the demand is for 35,000. In the boom they built 80,000 a year, they will never build that number again yet the population is rising exponentially.

 

[BilliamD75]

The elephant in the room is the government bonds held by the ecb. The interest rate is lower than inflation, that is just crazy stuff, they will have to offload back to the private sector at some stage, in order to get bids rates have to rise, look at it this way if inflation is 1% and interest rates are 2% I would be borrowing up to the hilt as its a sure fire way of making money, in the construction sector all the low hanging fruits are gone (nama) ask any developer, he will tell you site costs are top dollar, wage inflation has gone through the roof, house price inflation is cooling so the risk is to great to take a chance to build housing, they won't put there capital at risk if they have any, should mention the high taxation in the sector.

 

[demoivre]

David McWilliams, the man who made his name forecasting the last recession, is saying that the next one is not happening.

Sure interest rates will rise, brexit all be a disaster and barriers to trade are the new fashion.

Your second and third points, along with a few other factors, will ensure your first point doesn't materialize.

 

[odyssey06]

Your second and third points, along with a few other factors, will ensure your first point doesn't materialize.

Qualifier - Brexit could be a disaster for UK and Ireland, but that wouldn't necessarily shift ECB's position.

 

[noproblem]

Can anybody say with total authority that Brexit will be a disaster for Britain and Ireland? I really don't think so, there's a new parliament in formation within the EU, a new British PM, new ideas, new thinking and no one's going to let a fellow member of the EU flounder, ie Ireland. It's just not going to happen. Situation this morning where we see the Lady elect saying she's going to change the goalposts again. The whole lot of them don't seem to know what to do next, nor do we. We do know the Britt's want the backstop moved and know something? Would it be so terrible?

 

[odyssey06]

Can anybody say with total authority that Brexit will be a disaster for Britain and Ireland? I really don't think so, there's a new parliament in formation within the EU, a new British PM, new ideas, new thinking and no one's going to let a fellow member of the EU flounder, ie Ireland. It's just not going to happen. Situation this morning where we see the Lady elect saying she's going to change the goalposts again. The whole lot of them don't seem to know what to do next, nor do we. We do know the Britt's want the backstop moved and know something? Would it be so terrible?

Well there's Brexit and disorderly Brexit. I think most people are thinking of the latter in terms of worse case scenarios and I would expect a short term hit to both economies if that occurs. What happens after a disorderly Brexit is anyone's guess... UK rebounds into boom but Ireland doesn't, vice versa, neither rebounds, both rebound...

 

[noproblem]

Exactly, up and down like a hooxrrs knickers and NO i'm not trying to be smart. Let what happens happen and just let's get on with it.

 

[WolfeTone]

The whole lot of them don't seem to know what to do next, nor do we. We do know the Britt's want the backstop moved and know something? Would it be so terrible?

If the backstop is removed, or not accepted by the British, then it is tantamount to accepting the implementation of border controls - on both sides of the border. This is not politically desirable for any party. Let alone the fact that any installation of border checks will effectively attract the attention of militant republicans intent on going back to war. Certainly I cannot envisage any Irish Taoiseach assigning the role of permanent border duties to anybody without being conscious that that persons life is likely to be put at risk at some point in the future.

The irony of the Brexit shambles is that the Unionists, who have openly stated that they are opposed to border controls between UK/EU in Ireland, demand to be treated the same as the rest of the Britain, which is intent on imposing border controls between UK/EU in Britain.
In other words, they want to be treated differently without having to say they are being treated differently.
The obvious solution is take all the parties to task with their publicly stated positions ie, no return to border controls. In doing so, the backstop could be removed if the Unionists accept that NI will be treated differently to rest of UK. And do you know what? Would it be so terrible?

 

[WolfeTone]

I would expect a short term hit to both economies if that occurs.

I would think differently. I think the impact will be slow deterioration between UK and Ireland as far as trade is concerned.
There is a sense of sky falling in on Nov 1. I dont think so, it will be slow, manifesting itself in insurance claims, contract breaches, human rights, tariffs etc over time. The impact will take time without a trade deal.

 

[odyssey06]

I would think differently. I think the impact will be slow deterioration between UK and Ireland as far as trade is concerned.
There is a sense of sky falling in on Nov 1. I dont think so, it will be slow, manifesting itself in insurance claims, contract breaches, human rights, tariffs etc over time. The impact will take time without a trade deal.

Yes, well I suppose it depends on how long we think of short term, I didn't mean in days but in months or do you have a longer horizon in mind?

 

[WolfeTone]

Yes, well I suppose it depends on how long we think of short term, I didn't mean in days but in months or do you have a longer horizon in mind?

Of course, and i didn't mean to imply that you did.
In the absence of a withdrawal agreement, and/or subsequent trade deal, I would expect the hit to UK and Irish economies to be felt over the long-term (+2yrs and counting) as opposed to a short-term hit (within 2yrs).
I would be impossible to give a timeframe other than to say that without a deal, or deals in place, the impact will continue to manifest itself and deteriorate over the long-term rather than any significant impact im the first 12 to 24 months.
I could of course be wrong, but that is just my take on matters.