"The next bust is on its way but nobody is shouting stop"

PMU

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966
A small rise in interest rates will cause carnage, the euro will come under real pressure then, maybe italy and greece will crash out bringing the whole thing down
Will it? We can only speculate what will happen in euroland as we have never had QE before for the euro.

But e.g., in the US QE has tailed off since 2014. Interest rates have risen since 2016 to 2.5%. Inflation increased in 2018 and then declined to 1.9%. In that period GDP has risen 3.4% and employment has fallen to 3.8%. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/indicators. So no carnage there.

In the UK QE has tailed off since 2018. Inflation rose and then declined to 1.0% Interest rates rose and then declined to 1.9%. In that period while GDP growth has declined, unemployment has fallen from 7% to 3.9%. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/indicators. So no carnage there either.

It would appear that modest increases in interest rates after QE, i.e. that keep inflation at or below the target 2% rate, have not caused carnage. The USA has never had it so good, and considering Brexit-related uncertainty, the UK hasn't done too badly either.
 

WolfeTone

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277
Is this the same Shane Coleman that back in January proclaimed that "we never had it so good"?
That feel good factor evaporated pretty quickly.
 

Gorteen

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32
I think the Celtic Tiger type behaviour is back..... A local woman sought a home improvements loan for a new kitchen of €2500. I asked when was she getting the kitchen and she replied saying she was happy with her kitchen, she was going to Lithuania for new boobs (.)(.)
 

Bronte

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13,680
I know some savers who will be very happy, and an exchequer that will welcome the DIRT revenue.

Remember - someone's debt is always someone else's asset!
The ECB have signalled no rate rise for some time to come. So that’s not going to happen.
 

Bronte

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I think the Celtic Tiger type behaviour is back..... A local woman sought a home improvements loan for a new kitchen of €2500. I asked when was she getting the kitchen and she replied saying she was happy with her kitchen, she was going to Lithuania for new boobs (.)(.)
The expensive new cars on the roads signal to me the Celtic Tiger is back. Also the cost of things. From my visitor viewpoint the cost of accommodation, food in supermarkets and restaurants. Having one drink is amazingly expensive.

You can see the place is booming again. Noticeable that the Irish staff have moved on again to other jobs and the foreigners are again replacing them in the hospitality sector. Rents are beyond extraordinary. Full employment very noticeable.

House prices are not yet at Celtic levels though.
 

Ceist Beag

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1,137
House prices are not yet at Celtic levels though.
Maybe not outside of Dublin but certainly in Dublin there are some crazy prizes being quoted (and obviously believed to be obtainable). Here's just a sample - all apartments.
1 bed apartments in Grand Canal Dock - €485K
2 bed apartments in Clonskeagh, €510K, 3 bed apartments in same block, €800K
2 bed apartments in Howth and Dun Laoghaire at €550K and €495K respectively.
Frightening really.
 

noproblem

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You can still get a 1 bd apt in Dublin for less than 200k, Dublin 8 to be precise and in near proximity to everything.
 

Monbretia

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While I am a long way from Dublin and the new boom has been limited a bit to there and the environs it seems to be spreading! I want a kitchen extension but I have missed the boat, I tried to do it back in the last boom and it was mad money, I suffered job wise when that went to hell and didn't have the financial security to do it in the lean years. Now I am back with my plan and there is not a builder to be found that even wants to look at it not to mind actually build it!

In another midlands rural town I am looking for someone to do a bit of garden work, build patio etc that sort of thing, no takers either, the last work I had done there was the year Trump was elected and it was much easier find someone to do it then.
 

Palerider

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I think the Celtic Tiger type behaviour is back..... A local woman sought a home improvements loan for a new kitchen of €2500. I asked when was she getting the kitchen and she replied saying she was happy with her kitchen, she was going to Lithuania for new boobs (.)(.)
Not the 'bust' we are referring to perhaps a 'BUST ' that would probably interest at least 50% of the population, definitely more than care about some views on this thread.

I think we are heading towards a financial bust that will be a lot less curvy and welcoming as the brand new kitchen funded Lituanian variety.
 
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joe sod

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730
Ireland is hugely dependent on foreign capital investment and especially American, if anything interferes with that we are in big trouble. However lately there are a few very worrying recent developments, the loss of the Apple case in the European court where Apple were ordered to pay the Irish government the 13 billion in tax, however immediately there will be counter claims by other European countries for their share of that revenue thereby undermining the very advantage of us multinational s locating in Ireland.
The recent hostility by the Irish government and media to other foreign investment in Ireland most notably in property investment, now referring to them as cuckoo funds.
The brutal attack on the Quinn executive in the border region last week, if this is not immediately stopped then us executives may conclude that Ireland is not a safe country for them to be now.
 

NoRegretsCoyote

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870
However lately there are a few very worrying recent developments, the loss of the Apple case in the European court where Apple were ordered to pay the Irish government the 13 billion in tax, however immediately there will be counter claims by other European countries for their share of that revenue thereby undermining the very advantage of us multinational s locating in Ireland.
The case is ongoing and hasn't been lost.
 
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