The Gold thread

Here’s a good bit of analysis (Isnt the web great)

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5615.htm

Gold is a ‘technical’ trade rather than a ‘fundamental’ one. We could see gold trading in the $550-$680 range for ages. However, another big run, like we saw this Spring is as close to a ‘sure thing’ as it gets, and it could happen anytime IMHO.

You should hope the range-bound situation sticks around for a while. Long enough for you to average in with regular little purchases and build a nice low-cost base. Aim for 5-15% of your net worth, recomm higher end of this if Irish property is a major part of your wealth.
 
joe sod said:
What about silver, is anyone interested.
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joe sod said:
So WalkdWater you say you are jumping back in now. So what are you jumping back into? Is it the mining shares. the Gold ETF, or Gold futures, hardly bullion. Did you get completely out of gold a few months ago or just reduced your holdings. Ive held silver and gold bullion for about 2 years now. However it was a bit unusual the way gold, silver and equities dropped in unison.
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reduced. Heading back towards 15% mark now. mostly shares (3 diff mutual funds)

joe sod said:
The turmoil in the middle east seems to be making investors rush to oil rather than gold. Any Thoughts ?..
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Yes, it is strange. No, I still think gold is going much higher.
 
walk2dewater said:
Gold is a ‘technical’ trade rather than a ‘fundamental’ one. We could see gold trading in the $550-$680 range for ages. However, another big run, like we saw this Spring is as close to a ‘sure thing’ as it gets, and it could happen anytime IMHO.
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Well there are long term fundamentals at play but certainly technical analysis plays its part. I am averaging in a small amount every month but haven't seen anything yet to convince me that I should start greatly increasing this amount.

Like yourself (although perhaps this has changed) I have the bulk of my savings in cash and am prepared to wait a few weeks before converting a large portion of this cash to gold.

Next week has been seasonally the lowest week for gold for several years now. Should be interesting to see how things transpire next week.
 
the most recent fund managers report from rabos ml gold fund is an interesting read.....ok its biased but its interesting the way they are thinking none the less..

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darex said:
Interesting analysis and chart at this location about gold and inflation http://www.freemarketnews.com/Analysis/167/3368/2006-01-03.asp?wid=167&nid=3368. It would imply that to rival the 1979 peak gold would have to go a lot higher. It would also imply though that long term gold is set to decline - and hence is an investment that should only be made if you are confident about timing it - any thoughts anyone?
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Yes, were gold adjusted for inflation prices today would need to be circa
$2,000 per oz to equal 70's records. See the graph under the heading
Gold vs its own long term average

As for long-term gold I don't know enough to hazard a guess. W2DW is
your man for this but one thing I will say about the report you mentioned
is that the section on oil is way off. We may be using oil and gas more
efficiently but we also using more of it and the expectation is that
production will rise to meet demand. Likewise oil prices have another bit
to go before they equal inflation-adjusted levels ($100) reached in 1979.
 
ivuernis said:
W2DW is
your man for this but one thing I will say about the report you mentioned
is that the section on oil is way off. We may be using oil and gas more
efficiently but we also using more of it and the expectation is that
production will rise to meet demand. Likewise oil prices have another bit
to go before they equal inflation-adjusted levels ($100) reached in 1979.
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presumably you mean that demand will rise to meet production?

Agree with you in general about the point on high oil prices not causing a recession is a bit dodgy. The fact that Germany and Japan didn't have recessions in 1979-1982 is interesting though (my personal explanation is that for various reasons some parts of an economy always do well in a recession and that while the world as a whole went into recession Germany and Japan were - for whatever reason - able to take advantage of the situation.)
 
Extremely good Gold analysis this week on Jake Bernsteins Futures trading letter at [broken link removed]
late Aug may be a good time to go long....
 
Contrarian said:
late Aug may be a good time to go long....
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Tough to call. Gold could explode at any moment or crash back down to around $580. I'm betting on it falling in the short term before going on a sustained rally long into next year. However, it may be advisable to start averaging in now.
 
Not sure where to post this, as this is a Gold dedicated thread it seemed most appropriate.
Was looking at the various methods of investing in Gold (I think there is good value to be had in this at the moment) and e-gold seems to be a relatively low cost way of buying it (in terms of fees/transaction cost etc). Have a couple of questions though :-
1) Is it the most cost effective way of owning gold without having to take physical delivery of it and
2) How are gains in value taxed?, for example if the funds are reinvested in something else using the e-gold account, who do you pay the inevitable taxes to ?
 
Similar to the last question (so as to keep the discussion on point) - what is the best way to buy into a gold ETF from Ireland?
 
RiceCakes said:
Was looking at the various methods of investing in Gold (I think there is good value to be had in this at the moment) and e-gold seems to be a relatively low cost way of buying it (in terms of fees/transaction cost etc). Have a couple of questions though :-
1) Is it the most cost effective way of owning gold without having to take physical delivery of it and
2) How are gains in value taxed?, for example if the funds are reinvested in something else using the e-gold account, who do you pay the inevitable taxes to ?
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What's e-gold?
 
RiceCakes said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-gold

Was that a serious question?
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While the concept seems fine in theory and the idea of only dealing through gold exchangers to eliminate risk is interesting there are a few serious red flags for me in the Wikipedia piece (I know Wikipedia is not always 100% accurate so if some of these assertions are untrue apologies.)

a) That it has been struck from the Nevis register (for non payment of fees) but still states on its website that it is a Nevis company. The Nevis regulators have [broken link removed] about them because of this (and this is attributed)
Not wishing to be too uncomplimentary to Nevis but in the offshore world they are regarded as less well regulated than say Cayman/Bermuda/Channel Islands so if their regulator sees it necessary to issue a warning I'd be worried.

b) It appears unclear whether they have independent auditors

c) Concerns about its use for criminal activities and possible liabilities arising out of this

d) The irreversibility of transactions.

If you decide you want to invest in gold to my mind there are much better ways to do it e.g. bullion, gold ETFs on recognised exchanges etc., hell even coins (which I am sceptical about as they are often overpriced to buy) seem safer to me.
 
Interesting thread. I am no economist but great to 'listen in' on such a debate. I share W2DW concerns on P and think he may be right about gold.

W2DW. I think your 'averaging' policy is excellent but i'd like to convert some cash into Gold. What would you suggest would be most cost effective method of doing so and in a very short timeframe.
 
room305 said:
The ETF GLD can be purchased cheaply through a number of low cost online brokers like Fidelity.
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How does thse exchange traded funds work? Also the Gold ones were not that apparent to me. (novice when it comes to etf's)
 
phoenix, as you requested; I put some money in rabodirects mlim gold fund ... it lost a good bit of its gains in may but it on the way back up now. Theres a lot of good information collected daily by http://www.kitco.com and the guy over at http://www.gold.ie - but they are trying to get you to buy physical gold. A lot of commentators reckon that it could x4 in the event of a dollar collapse http://www.dollarcollapse.com/ - i read john rubinos book on the dollar collapse but want convinced enough to put in more than 5% of my €
 
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