The coming recession.

[cremeegg]

David McWilliams is predicting a Trump-cession.

It is difficult to keep an economy on track when competent people who are trying to manage are in charge, when ideologically motivated hare-brains are running the show, impossible.

David McWilliams: Once you start looking, the signs of US recession are everywhere

The incoherence of Trump economics is making already indebted consumers and businesses even more anxious. Punters across all income brackets are panicking and consumer confidence is collapsing

www.irishtimes.com

Problems in Ireland can't be far behind.

 

[peemac]

Didn't he predict a "short recession" in 2022 and a banking crisis in 2023?

He also said Dublin's tech dream would end in 2022.

 

[Purple]

David McWilliams is predicting a Trump-cession.

He's not on his own. The Financial Times isn't exactly bullish on the global economy for the next 12 months and Trumps massive taxes on imports from America's biggest trading partners have to have a domestic inflationary impact.

 

[cremeegg]

Here is Martin Wolf on the topic

The economic costs of Trump’s assault on the global order

America is trying to undo the very system of open trade that it created

www.ft.com

 

[cremeegg]

The Govt is looking at between 50 and 80 thousand job losses, in the event of a tariff war.

I dont know what 'in the event' means, the tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on April 2.

There are 2.78 million people employed in Ireland, so 80k is less than 3%, but it wont be pleasant.

Given that the Irish economy has been running hot, it may even relieve certain pressures in the economy.

Those most likely to loose their jobs are high earning and highly skilled. Not likely to sit about, may even prompt an indigenous entrepreneurial revival.

Trump’s EU tariffs threat could cost 80,000 jobs in Ireland, Dublin warns

Irish government also hits back at accusations by US that country is operating a ‘tax scam’

www.theguardian.com

ERSI report from last Friday here

Trade protectionist measures likely to have significant negative impact on Irish economy

www.esri.ie

 

[Leper]

I’ve never had it so good. Since we retired every day is like the old bank holidays. Plenty to do, enough dough to be spending on what I couldn’t afford when I was in fulltime employment. Normally, I’d ignore prophets of doom. But, I respect the previous three posters big time. Should I be worried about not being worried?

 

[Purple]

I’ve never had it so good. Since we retired every day is like the old bank holidays. Plenty to do, enough dough to be spending on what I couldn’t afford when I was in fulltime employment. Normally, I’d ignore prophets of doom. But, I respect the previous three posters big time. Should I be worried about not being worried?

No, you're retired. You're economically bullet proof. You are part of the wealthiest and most subsidised cohort of people this country has ever seen. Your children's children and their children in turn will suffer the consequences of the bad decisions your generation (and mine) made. Think of yourself as one of the first entrants into a Ponzi Scheme (I'm part of the next cohort in so I'll probably be find as well).

 

[Leper]

Thanks @Purple. I thought I’d have to fill out a Money Makeover questionnaire. I can sleep easy tonight and in my daytime naps.

 

[cremeegg]

Most people do fine in a recession, most people don't loose their jobs, or take a wage cut.

The price of houses might ease or fall (not a prediction), which will suit some people very well.

After 30 years in the private sector, I took a nice public sector job a few years ago, so a recession would suit me fine.

Just as some (most ?) people do well in a recession, some countries stand to benefit as well. How will Ireland fare