The Collapse That Will Change A Generation ?

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Markets constantly change - they are never frozen in time.

You are advocating that folks should dump US equities because you reckon you know what’s going to happen in the future.

Grand, it’s your money.

I don’t know what’s going to happen in the future so I will stick with a global equity index fund and will let the market decide how much is allocated to US equities - today, tomorrow, 30 years from now.
 
Yes I am but what do I know apart from extensive reading on the subject. I have no crystal ball but I do like to challenge conventional thinking and do feel there is too much group think and beating down of opinions that dont conform to the group thought on this site. I'm just encouraging people to research the topic and form their own rational opinions.
 
conor_mc said:
that can make a huge difference if deployed at scale. I
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I would hazard that the wars and required rebuilding in ukraine and Gaza plus a few forest fires outweighs all the "progress" made so far. Meanwhile both the UK and Ireland continue to pump sewage into the sea untreated but ignore this as it is not as cool to promte as climate.. And these are developed countries.
 
Flybytheseat said:
It's not about climate change. It's about the fact that the US national debt is 125% of GDP putting them on course for an Argentinian type default within the next three years. They have no levers to come back from the brink and they are adding 2-3 Trillion dollars a year to their >36 trillion national debt. They are up there with all the bananna republics. There has to be a reset in the world economy with the US declining to insignificance and the emergence of eastern economies as the world's economic powerhouses.
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I believe the US stock market and dollar are being re priced downwards but this is just another cycle we had the same after the 2001 dot com crash, US stock markets and dollar were out of favour which lasted for a decade, also had the inflationary cycle in the 1970s much worse than today . Also regarding debt to GDP 125% is not really that extreme historically, Britain had much higher debt to GDP ratios after WW1 and WW2 and they never defaulted on their debts. However I do believe that the pension funds and the global ETFs were too heavily weighted to US stocks, 70% is way too much concentration on US, there must have been a positive feedback loop that kept funneling all this money into those few big tech stocks which suddenly got disrupted over the last month
 
If global equity funds can be relied on to diversify with well performing companies no matter where they are located then it doesn't seem like bad advice to invest in such a fund no matter how the US economy performs. Especially for those who aren't interested in researching deeper into investing.

Returning to the title of the thread, I think there won't be a sudden collapse that will change a generation but a thousand little cuts over the coming decades to things we've come to take for granted in our standard of living since maybe the late 90's. As we've already seen happening for some time things that didn't use to cost anything will have a price, things that were affordable and commonly enjoyed will become more and more co-modified that they will all become luxuries reserved for special occasions.

My concern is things like demographic changes and cost of living challenges in to the future will put brakes on stock market returns. The last 10 - 15 years will be viewed as a golden age for global wealth creation, pension fund growth, generous government hand outs that never used to exist. And this era will be seen as wasteful because it could never last, that it became more and more irrational exuberance built on a house of cards.
 
If you think you have an investment edge, then by all means deviate from the market consensus.

I don’t pretend to have any such edge - I’ve no idea what’s going to happen tomorrow.

So, logically, I will stick with a global equity index fund.
 
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