The Bitcoin threads could be interesting in the future

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TheBigShort

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These threads on bitcoin could be a source of some interest for psychology students or behavioural studies.
By my reckoning the first bitcoin thread on AAM was started in August 2017. Just when its price was making headlines with $3,000 a coin. This wasnt long after I dipped my toe in the water back in June, after dismissing bitcoin in similar vein as others here from about 2013.
Aside from the surge of interest on this site, bitcoin is now a daily topic on all business sites, news sites etc. I cant help feel it is starting to become embedded now into mainstream dialogues, to such an extent that even those who consider it nothing more than hot air are openly betting on its future value.
What was it about the $2,000 - $3,000 price tag between June- August that sparked the frenzy of interest?
 
I stand corrected. Notably however that thread is idle after Feb 15, then resurfaces for a bit in Aug 16, then idle again until Feb 17 (where I make my own contribution complaining about fees - to think I was considering buying in Feb 17 but didnt:()
After that in Aug 17, multiple forks of the bitcoin topic emerge in various threads.
I just think its interesting that when certain price levels are obtained, then heads start to turn.
 
Hi BS

Unfortunately we didn't have the internet during Tulipmania, so we don't know the arguments people were using back then to justify the prices.

We do have the discussion forums during the dot.com boom. I am not sure if anyone has researched the mania.

From a quick look at boards.ie, most of the discussion is the believers talking to themselves.

After Bitcoin collapses, Askaboutmoney will be very useful as the believers have been challenged robustly and systematically and forcefully by the non-believers.

Brendan
 
TheBigShort said:
These threads on bitcoin could be a source of some interest for psychology students or behavioural studies.
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That's a great point, TBS. It's amazing to watch.

Look at the way when a point is made which aligns with one's viewpoint, it receives multiple likes and couldn't agree mores (from one group) and when alternate points are made, there is little, if any, acknowledgement. I'm as guilty of this as anyone else - it just seems it's the nature of so-called internet discussions! That's a pity.
 
Dan Murray said:
Look at the way when a point is made which aligns with one's viewpoint, it receives multiple likes
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Interesting point and for the first time, I have "liked" one of your posts.

While what you say is true, there is an exception in that that fp's posts which are factual have likes from both camps.

Brendan
 
Well, two can play that game!!:D

Seriously, I agree with your qualification!

It's also a big relief that my post was not deleted!!;)

The thing that really worries me, Brendan, is that there is a reasonable chance that you might be right and that if that day arrives, you will confuse the outcome with current probability! If that happens, you won't even have to ban me - I'll leave voluntarily - I simply would not be able to take the "I told you so lap of honour". I'm only flesh and blood!:)
 
Dan Murray said:
If that happens, you won't even have to ban me - I'll leave voluntarily
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This is why the psychologists should be interviewing the believers now. When Bitcoin disappears, I think that the believers will disappear as well.

I remember meeting a neighbour on Grafton Street in the last week of 1999, handing out leaflets that the World would come to an end at the stroke of midnight on 31st December. I was really shocked. I wished him a Happy New Year anyway. When I met him in the New Year, I tried to discuss it but all he would say was that due to their prayers, God changed his mind.

This would be the interesting thing about the psychological study. Why do very clever people believe weird things? And how do they rationalise it afterwards when it is shown that it was untrue?

OK, Shortie will be able to say "A global conspiracy of corrupt governments, central bankers and the banking community conspired to destroy a competitor". But what will the non conspiracy theorists say?

So after the collapse, please don't leave AAM. Come back and see what might later generations learn from this bubble.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
While what you say is true, there is an exception in that that fp's posts which are factual have likes from both camps.
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+1. I really enjoy fb's posts and whilst challenged always keeps it civil and never goes off down rabbit holes like other posters do.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I remember meeting a neighbour on Grafton Street in the last week of 1999, handing out leaflets that the World would come to an end at the stroke of midnight on 31st December. I was really shocked. I wished him a Happy New Year anyway. When I met him in the New Year, I tried to discuss it but all he would say was that due to their prayers, God changed his mind.
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We're all smiling at that one, thinking smugly "I wouldn't be like that". In fact, something very similar happened on a grand scale. I was a big skeptic on Y2K. When I made an attempt at an "I told you so", I was dismissed with the conviction that it would have been a disaster if we had not heeded the warnings. They didn't explain why Italy escaped and it famously spurned the Y2K hysteria.

I am resigned to the fact that when bitcoin bubble bursts there is no point in me making another attempt at "I told you so".

Already the wagons are circling.

There is the bullet proof camp who state rather unhelpfully that the value of bitcoin is what people pay for it, they are always right whether it's price is $1 or $20,000.

There will be the conspiracy theorists who will argue that the elite establishment killed off this brave attempt to free mankind.

There will be those, not unlike the bullet proof camp, who will argue that just because you predicted the right outcome you could not have been certain of it.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
There will be those... who will argue that just because you predicted the right outcome you could not have been certain of it.
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I had not thought of that, but Dan gives a clear outline of it here in advance.

Dan Murray said:
... Brendan, is that there is a reasonable chance that you might be right and that if that day arrives, you will confuse the outcome with current probability!
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Duke of Marmalade said:
There is the bullet proof camp who state rather unhelpfully that the value of bitcoin is what people pay for it, they are always right whether it's price is $1 or $20,000.
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It’s not unhelpful , telling people that it will fall to below a value on a given date is unhelpful my posts are all factual , I think it’s lunacy to Bet on its rise or fall and advise others it’s free money . Yourself and Brendan are trying to make money by gambling on its fall but there is no edge here yous can not predict its decline , you are trying to time a market that’s behaving irrational .
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
There will be those, not unlike the bullet proof camp, who will argue that just because you predicted the right outcome you could not have been certain of it.
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When BTC was hovering just over $200 back in 2015, the Duke said it was all baloney. The fact that the price has moved dramatically in the opposite direction since then does not absolutely mean that the Duke was wrong.

Brendan and the Duke seem unable to grasp this point - the logic deficit here is startling. I can't say anymore else my post really will be deleted.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Hi Fella

What do you think Bitcoin will be worth on 1 January 2028?

Brendan
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I’ve no idea Brendan I couldn’t predict it’s rise to now so I can’t predict it’s future , I don’t believe anyone can beat the markets.

It’s not sitting on the fence with me , i can’t predict human behaviour I’m happy to get rich slow investing but there are many who want to get rich quick investing in crypto’s I can’t predict there behaviour . 2028 is a long time away a lot can change Bitcoin could evolve to be actually useful and be used as a currency, maybe that’s not the plan but the main reason I say bitcoin is worth what the market is prepared to pay for it is it’s a belief system and if people believe it to be worth 14,000 or whatever then that’s what it will he exchanged for and even if I agree it’s lunacy that this useless currency invented that can easily be copied I can’t change other peoples belief and the more people accept this as a store or value then we can’t changr that so future predictions are impossible imo.
 
Fella said:
I don’t believe anyone can beat the markets.
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Hi Fella

I would have agreed with you on this 100% until the dot.com bubble came along. Then I realised that on rare occasions, mania grips a market, and that market can be shown to be wrong.

So now I agree with you only 99% of the time.

The bitcoin mania is clear to anyone who is not a believer.

I invest in shares for the long term. I don't attempt to beat the market or to time the market. I know that I am taking a risk with those shares. I believe that the potential returns justify the risks.

Selling Bitcoin to me is just another investment where the potential return way outweighs the risks involved. It will form just a small part of my portfolio. I won't want to close a losing position but I will do so.

But I fully agree with you that irrational behaviour is difficult to time. Bitcoin might be over $15,000 this time next year. I might well lose money by selling Bitcoins short. But I think we are at the peak of the bubble. I will sell Bitcoin short with a guaranteed stop and just live with the losses if the mania gets worse and lasts longer.

Brendan
 
Fella said:
It’s not unhelpful , telling people that it will fall to below a value on a given date is unhelpful my posts are all factual , I think it’s lunacy to Bet on its rise or fall and advise others it’s free money . Yourself and Brendan are trying to make money by gambling on its fall but there is no edge here yous can not predict its decline , you are trying to time a market that’s behaving irrational .
Click to expand...
Mistaken identity:oops:
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
There will be those, not unlike the bullet proof camp, who will argue that just because you predicted the right outcome you could not have been certain of it.
Click to expand...

Of course it's possible to predict the outcome of something without being certain of it. Is that really where we're at here?:rolleyes:

I could predict that it will rain in Meath on the 2nd of March or April or whatever month you like. If my prediction proves right, would it not be reasonable for someone to suggest that I couldn't have been certain about such an outcome? I think so, I sincerely think so.

Here's a prediction (again can't be certain about the outcome) but
Dan Murray said:
....when alternate valid points are made, there is little, if any, acknowledgement.
Click to expand...
 
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