Tactical voting

[Brendan Burgess]

I am in Dublin Bay South a 4 seater.

The likely outcome Eamon Ryan c. 99% sure; Jim O'Callaghan c. 90% sure - one of the FG TDs - 100% sure.

The last seat will be between
FG
Kevin Humphreys Labour
Chris Andrews SF

And it will be close.

Let's say my personal preference is : 1) Green 2) FF 3) Labour

Given that Green and FF are likely to get elected without my vote, should I give my number 1 to Labour anyway? So vote 1) Labour 2) Green 3) FF

That might keep him in long enough to stay ahead of SF and FG.

If Humphreys does badly, it won't matter, as my second preference will go to the Greens.

If Humphreys does very well and Ryan does much worse than expected, and Humphreys gets elected instead of Ryan , that wouldn't be the end of the World.

My main objective is to keep Andrews out.

Brendan

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I am in Dublin Bay South a 4 seater.

The likely outcome Eamon Ryan c. 99% sure; Jim O'Callaghan c. 90% sure - one of the FG TDs - 100% sure.

The last seat will be between
FG
Kevin Humphreys Labour
Chris Andrews SF

And it will be close.

Let's say my personal preference is : 1) Green 2) FF 3) Labour

Given that Green and FF are likely to get elected without my vote, should I give my number 1 to Labour anyway? So vote 1) Labour 2) Green 3) FF

That might keep him in long enough to stay ahead of SF and FG.

If Humphreys does badly, it won't matter, as my second preference will go to the Greens.

If Humphreys does very well and Ryan does much worse than expected, and Humphreys gets elected instead of Ryan , that wouldn't be the end of the World.

My main objective is to keep Andrews out.

Brendan

PP go Kate O'Connell (FG) 4/6 Chris Andrews Evens, K Humphreys Evens
So it seems to me that if the main objective is to keep SF/IRA out you should go No. 1 Kate O'Connell, No. 2 K Humphreys

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Hi Duke

Where are the odds for the individual constituencies?

Brendan

 

[Brendan Burgess]

PP go Kate O'Connell (FG) 4/6 Chris Andrews Evens, K Humphreys Evens
So it seems to me that if the main objective is to keep SF/IRA out you should go No. 1 Kate O'Connell, No. 2 K Humphreys

But if I prefer Humphreys to Kate O'Connell, surely I should vote Humphreys no 1 , and Kate O'Connell no 2?

If Humphreys gets eliminated, Kate O'Connell will get my full vote.

Brendan

 

[josh8267]

But if I prefer Humphreys to Kate O'Connell, surely I should vote Humphreys no 1 , and Kate O'Connell no 2?

If Humphreys gets eliminated, Kate O'Connell will get my full vote.

Brendan

What happens if Humphreys goes out one count lower than you expect ,I would say more will transfer to SF than FG,
Your vote wont count for much if Humphreys gets knocked out and most of his left vote go to SF,
The only safe way to keep the left transferring vote away from SF is to get Humphreys Elected ,

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

But if I prefer Humphreys to Kate O'Connell, surely I should vote Humphreys no 1 , and Kate O'Connell no 2?

If Humphreys gets eliminated, Kate O'Connell will get my full vote.

Brendan

Interesting puzzle on which I have changed my mind.
The likely situation is as you say that the last seat that we are down to those three at the second last count. As PP favours O'Connell over Humphreys a No. 1 for Humphreys gives the better chance of eliminating Andrews at this stage. On the other hand if Andrews is through to the last count you would prefer transfers from FG than from Labour as Josh has remarked and again the better tactic is to give your No. 1 to Humphreys.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Your vote wont count for much if Humphreys gets knocked out and most of his left vote go to SF,

Not sure if I understand you

Let's say that after the 10th count (with only one seat left to be decided) the results are

SF : 7,000
FG: 6,000
Humphreys: 5,000

My vote is in the Humphreys pile .

It will transfer to the FG candidate.

It will have the exact same value as if I had voted no. 1 FG.

That might get her over the line or it might not.

Brendan

 

[Brendan Burgess]

As PP favours O'Connell over Humphreys a No. 1 for Humphreys gives the better chance of eliminating Andrews at this stage.

OK, I will see if I can follow this with numbers - let's say that 10 people agree to follow my voting plan.

If I go 1) FG 2) Lab

And the second last count is

FG : 6,000
SF: 5,000
Lab: 4999

Labour gets eliminated. His votes might help SF get the last seat.

On the other hand, if we vote 1) Lab 2) FG

FG 5,990
Labour: 5,009
SF 5,000

SF gets eliminated.

The SF voters are more likely to go to Labour over FG, so voting no. 1 Labour is the best way of keeping SF out and getting Labour elected over FG.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

There are two parts to the tactic.
1) Increase chance of Andrews going out on second last count. This means you should favour the lesser of the other two, Humphreys according to PP. As 5,500 each with Andrews on 5,000 is better than 7,000 for O'Connell and 4,000 for Humphreys. You do run the risk of the two being 4,500 instead of it being 6,000/3,000 but that doesn't matter as Andrews would go through to the last count in either case.
2) If Andrews survives to the last count you want the transfers to be most unfriendly to him. That means you want O'Connell to go out. Again that favours No. 1 Humphreys.

If PP had Humphreys the preferred of the two then you would have a very difficult call as a vote for O'Connell would then give a better chance of seeing Andrews out at the second last count.

 

[Leper]

Proportional Representation - Transferable Vote is excellent. Remember after you vote your Number 1 your Number 2 won't come into play until your first preference is elected or eliminated. If you can calculate when candidates will be elected or eliminated you vote can be more powerful. Great System! Miscalculate and you could be doing damage to your preferences.

Apologies, I have no knowledge of constituencies outside of Munster.

 

[josh8267]

Proportional Representation - Transferable Vote is excellent. Remember after you vote your Number 1 your Number 2 won't come into play until your first preference is elected or eliminated. If you can calculate when candidates will be elected or eliminated you vote can be more powerful. Great System! Miscalculate and you could be doing damage to your preferences.

Apologies, I have no knowledge of constituencies outside of Munster.

The problem FG have down your neck of the woods,
Greens/FG clustered at the top of the ballot paper,Greens on very top both FG just under ,lots of FG types Green types will be ticking all top 3 positions on ballot paper all will be staying there until last counts, kind of a lottery on who gets no/2/3
I expect Green to be picking up splinter voter from further down the field all day long,

 

[Leper]

The problem FG have down your neck of the woods,
Greens/FG clustered at the top of the ballot paper,Greens on very top both FG just under ,lots of FG types Green types will be ticking all top 3 positions on ballot paper all will be staying there until last counts, kind of a lottery on who gets no/2/3
I expect Green to be picking up splinter voter from further down the field all day long,

Make no mistake Josh, people in Cork and elsewhere know what way they are voting. Whether a name is at the top of a ballot paper or in the middle or at the end, the voters are not stupid. What you are saying might have been relevant 20 years ago. But, we have a more educated electorate now. They will vote and use the PR system to make the most of their vote.

The leaders of FF, FG, Lab have informed us that SF will have no part in any government. Watch that space. I expect if SF participate in the next government Michéal Martin will resign before he is sacked. Leo Varadkar could suffer the same fate. Even Mr Howlin could come a cropper. I think we have an exciting time ahead in Irish politics.

But, we have created the monster with opinion polls. Time to get rid of them, I say; see another thread on the matter.

 

[cremeegg]

My main objective is to keep Andrews out.

Brendan

It’s a pity that you don’t see anything positive you can support as a main objective.

I don’t know what you have against Chris Andrews he is someone who has clearly put his support for the plight of the Palestinian people ahead of his personal ambition.

He could easily have played nicely and let his family connections float him in to a FF cabinet.

There are many objectionable individuals in Irish politics. I can’t see Chris Andrews as one of them.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Any one who can condone or maybe even laud what the Provisional IRA did has no moral compass.

 

[joe sod]

He could easily have played nicely and let his family connections float him in to a FF cabinet.

He lost his seat in the 2011 fianna fail wipe out election, he only jumped ship after losing his seat. Id say alot of the reason was personal ambition rather than ideals. At the time fianna fail were seen as toxic, he probably thought sinn fein would be a better vehicle to get his seat back as that was the height of the sinn fein attack on the banks and troika etc. It didnt work out for him, irish voters are very unforgiving of TDs that jump ship, same thing happened Colm Keaveney in Galway, he not get elected after leaving labour for fianna fail.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Hi cremeegg

1) I was giving this as an example.
2) I have gone on many demonstrations in favour of the Palestinian people
3) When Chris had a sandwich shop on Merrion Row I visited it regularly and was very friendly with him and his wife.

But I draw the line at anonymous internet bullying combined with crass stupidity.

Sting op exposes Andrews over FF Twitter rants

FORMER Fianna Fail TD for Dublin South East Chris Andrews has quit the party after being unmasked as the Twitter user @brianformerff -- who posted more than 300 tweets, many highly derogatory of the party leader Micheal Martin and other senior Fianna Fail figures.

www.independent.ie

Brendan

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Hi cremeegg

1) I was giving this as an example.
2) I have gone on many demonstrations in favour of the Palestinian people
3) When Chris had a sandwich shop on Merrion Row I visited it regularly and was very friendly with him and his wife.

But I draw the line at anonymous internet bullying combined with crass stupidity.

Sting op exposes Andrews over FF Twitter rants

FORMER Fianna Fail TD for Dublin South East Chris Andrews has quit the party after being unmasked as the Twitter user @brianformerff -- who posted more than 300 tweets, many highly derogatory of the party leader Micheal Martin and other senior Fianna Fail figures.

www.independent.ie

Brendan

What a despicable character, surprised at cremeegg.
Boss, follow the SF advice and vote early and often. This will be my most keenly watched result.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

surprised at cremeegg.

I would doubt that cremeegg knew about this.

The Andrews family have a long history of public service blighted by Chris.

Brendan

 

[TarfHead]

Back on topic ..

Based on my understanding of PR-TV, vote 1 Humphreys & 2 FG. If you want to actively make a point about SF/IRA, give Andrews your highest number.

 

[dereko1969]

I should be voting in the same constituency but Dublin City Council managed to lose my change of address form between me handing it in, in person to avoid any postal issues, and it being sent up to the Franchise section.
I'll go mental if Humphreys misses out by 1 vote, though my first preference would have gone to Durcan the Soc Dem candidate. I think Ryan might be worried that so many people are saying he's home and hosed that he may end up everyone's No. 2 and accidentally be eliminated early, I hope not, he would have been getting my no.3.
So now i'm going to have to figure out now who I want least from Aengus O'Snodaigh, Brid Smith and Joan Collins!! Hobson's choice.