The climate transition raises challenges, but doing nothing has substantial costs. If Ireland fails to reduce its emissions, as it currently looks set to by a wide margin, it may have to transfer large amounts of money to neighbouring countries. This would be in the form of the government being required to purchase statistical transfers or credits — basically overperformances in other countries. A recent report by T&E(2024) suggests Ireland’s costs could be between €1.7and €9.6 billion by 2030. However, these estimates assume Ireland follows through on measures that it looks increasingly unlikely to implement. If these measures were not implemented, then the State would be further from its climate objectives and would face much higher compliance costs, potentially as high as €20 billion.
This estimate adjusts for additional measures not yet adopted and takes on board non-compliance costs associated with the full set of legislative requirements.