galway_blow_in
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i actually ( through blind luck ) made money on gold from 2010 to 2012 , id never invest in gold again , it has no intrinsic value so its impossible to value it objectively
What can I say except that I genuinely am able to sleep better? Perhaps I am using the word gamble more in my perception of how other investors might see it.
As I said in my last post, initially my new portfolio went down, but this time round I didn't get that sinking feeling in my gut that I had made a bad choice. Gold may go down in the short time and equities bounce back, but I believe over a medium term investment 3-5 years that gold/silver has more upside potential than non precious metal equities. But who knows....I only invested a third of the amount I invested last time. I am taking a cash is king approach this time. But I will be making monthly purchases of gold/silver related products, but will keep my ratio of cash 2/3s to 1/3 precious metals the same.
Yea betting on a falling oil price has been a winner the last 18months, and it looks terrible but Im invested in the oil majors. Unfortunately the falling oil and commodities has hit country specific etfs aswell and also emerging markets. So even though investing widely you are still getting caught in the terrible sentiment. The thing is if the US markets now look like turning, europe is aneamic and has not recovered from 2008. China is in freefall and emerging markets and commodities are 4 years into bear market. How do you diversify. Surely emerging markets and commodities must be close to the bottomnot only has oil not yet bottomed , its inches away from another leg down
Yea betting on a falling oil price has been a winner the last 18months, and it looks terrible but Im invested in the oil majors. Unfortunately the falling oil and commodities has hit country specific etfs aswell and also emerging markets. So even though investing widely you are still getting caught in the terrible sentiment. The thing is if the US markets now look like turning, europe is aneamic and has not recovered from 2008. China is in freefall and emerging markets and commodities are 4 years into bear market. How do you diversify. Surely emerging markets and commodities must be close to the bottom
The key is not to panic. Based on where price to book values are right now at the start of the year, never in history have values been down come the end of the year.
Speculating on oil and gold is a mugs' game. Buy a diversified basket of high quality companies (Nestle, Colgate, Coca-Cola, Diageo, Heineken, Unilever, etc) and don't panic when they fall in value.
what do you mean when you say values have never been down come the end of the year , values are above the average down the years
I take your point and I agree largely. When I looked at those companies they were always trading at rich valuations the only one I bought was Coca Cola last year when it was out of favour and cheapish. I didn't think I was speculating I wasn't buying futures in oil or risky exploration companies I bought the oil majors and emerging markets etfs along with general european etfs. But in hindsight I weighed too heavily in that direction.The key is not to panic. Based on where price to book values are right now at the start of the year, never in history have values been down come the end of the year.
Speculating on oil and gold is a mugs' game. Buy a diversified basket of high quality companies (Nestle, Colgate, Coca-Cola, Diageo, Heineken, Unilever, etc) and don't panic when they fall in value.
I take your point and I agree largely. When I looked at those companies they were always trading at rich valuations the only one I bought was Coca Cola last year when it was out of favour and cheapish. I didn't think I was speculating I wasn't buying futures in oil or risky exploration companies I bought the oil majors and emerging markets etfs along with general european etfs. But in hindsight I weighed too heavily in that direction.
I thought I was buying cheap unloved stocks. For example I bought a polish etf in 2014....
vast majority of s+p components are deep in bear territory , the overall market was deceiving as a handful of winning stocks were keeping the market up , this is the worst start to a year ever yet markets are only 9% from all time highs which suggests there is plenty of room to fall , things are incredibly bearish right now , a very possitive jobs report in the usa done nothing for stocks today , an economy can be improving while markets chose to go the other way
Thanks for the advice I can see now that I was putting too much money into volatile assets. I think 2015 was an extreme year in terms of the volatility in the assets I invested in. I think the oil market will recover and also emerging markets but it has really hurt my portfolio in the mean time. Of course if I had picked the right time to invest in these assets I would think I was a genius but I would really just have been lucky. However if I was coming to it with fresh capital and with the decimation in these markets now surely now especially emerging markets are compelling investments.
i read an article yesterday on dealing in todays stock markets or stock markets over the last 20 years. Basically they made the point that there is no point in using statistics going back over 25 years as we are investing in todays market and not 25 years ago and the goal posts have changed.
Markets transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient
Markets transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient
i read an article yesterday on dealing in todays stock markets or stock markets over the last 20 years. Basically they made the point that there is no point in using statistics going back over 25 years as we are investing in todays market and not 25 years ago and the goal posts have changed. The biggest issue is electronic trading resulting in huge swings in volatility like we are currently experiencing. This did not happen before the 90s as it took a long time for a trend to establish and it was difficult to trade in shares so people would only commit to buying or selling if they were absolutely sure. Therefore trades that are happening now would not have happened 25 years ago. So bull and bear markets would play out over years. Going back over the last 15 years we have had 2 major crashes and maybe now entering a third and also 2 bull markets in between. In 2008 the crash started in september 2008 and was exhausted by march 2009. (Ireland is a different story as it was dominated by banks so its fate was tied to the financial sector). In those few months the dow lost almost half its valuation. Even in 1929 it took an awful lot longer for the bear market to play out and bottom. Another thing is the interconnectivity of world markets even if in reality there is little in common.
Marc I think I probably owe you an apology , I doubted a lot of what you said about people been no good with their own money and that people should let a financial advisor take control. I think your right , the reason most people can't make it work is because they can't stop fiddling around with things and sell when stocks drop etc etc. No matter how many times you type the same thing to people that they can't predict short term price movements people still try to and adjust their portfolios once more. I would be fairly certain that those that invest regularly probably stop or hold off during times of falling prices.