Stock market correction or bear market/crash? Either way I bailed.

galway_blow_in said:
that guy has been a bear forever
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In fairness he was saying a week ago that he expected a correction because the big tech stocks would dissappoint on earnings, they actually did not dissappoint but the market looked for another excuse to sell off anyway. But then a big sell off happens then suddenly they become an authority on it and know exactly why it happened and it was all so predictable.
In Ireland though you cant actually tell people that its a good time to buy for example like 2 years ago or you get crucified if the market continues to fall, you would have people ringing joe duffy to complain, in the US they are more forgiving so there are guys there prepared to stick their neck out like that and people will take their losses on the chin
 
Since the stock market began, stocks rise and fall. Markets correct, recover, correct, recover. That's the economic cycle. We often lose sight of this due to the volume of white noise and so called experts out there. Then fear and emotion kick in with our decision making. When Trump gleefully announced in a recent interview that the stock market was at its highest level ever, I sighed. Its not an everlasting gobstopper for Gods sake! Growth is not infinite. Best to look back historically at all the corrections, speed bumps and downturns in the stock market.....and we are still here. I suppose the key is to be diversified, different asset classes etc and not bet on one horse essentially.
 
Sommerville’s performance was incredible.

He advised people to panic now because it’s cheaper than panicking later.

He compared the last few days to 1987 and the start of the financial crisis.

Truly astonishing. Who believes this stuff?
 
It’s all mad Ted since I start investing all I’ve heard is “it’s a bad time” correction due blah blah blah , I’m still buying every month (or 2/3 months max ) and logged on yesterday Expecting to see a bloodbath , nothing of the sort I’m probably back to where I was last October at worst , oh the drama , stocks rise and fall without risk there is no reward . I got great advice here buy investment trusts and hold , I’m up a lot of money about 30-40% since 2014 , all these doomsdayers eventually they might be right and and it crashes 25% in a day but I’ll still be up, don’t listen to noise and trash talk just buy and hold and believe in the markets.

It’s funny reading “trillions wiped off the stock market “ I’ve never once read “trillions wiped onto the stock market”
 
Fella said:
I’m up a lot of money about 30-40% since 2014 , all these doomsdayers eventually they might be right and and it crashes 25% in a day but I’ll still be up, don’t listen to noise and trash talk just buy and hold and believe in the markets.
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I think the real concern is for those who are reliant on cashing out of the stock market, or pension fund etc on or during retirement. A 25% drop is massive and can impact adversely on future consumption, employment, healthcare costs etc.
If you are simply holding long-term then correct, your money is tied up and has little bearing on you, but the impact can affect others in a bad way.
 
TheBigShort said:
A 25% drop is massive
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Is it?

It's certainly not in the least bit unusual for equities to correct by 20% or more - historically the S&P500 has suffered a 20%+ pull back roughly once every 3.5 years on average.

Decumulating retirees would be well advised to allocate their savings so they don't find themselves having to crystallise losses due to short-term market fluctuations. All equity investments should be long-term.
 
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"All equity investments should be long term" , they should be long term but most are not held for the long term as is displayed by the market action in last few days. I'd say most of the stock market changed hands during the 2008 financial crash with minority of stocks held by the same owner throughout.
 
Sarenco said:
Is it?
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I would consider it to be, yes.

Sarenco said:
It's certainly not in the least bit unusual for equities to correct by 20% or more - historically the S&P500 has suffered a 20%+ pull back roughly once every 3.5 years on average.
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I never said it was unusual.

Sarenco said:
Decumulating retirees would be well advised to allocate their savings so they don't find themselves having to crystallise losses due to short-term market fluctuations. All equity investments should be long-term.
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Thats good advice. But it is not only retirees that are affected. My post should have read "a real concern" and not "the real concern".

If you consider one train of thought for the recent market downturn, it is the prospect of returning inflation, supported in no small measure by wages growth and low unemployment.
If investors are spooked by low returns on their investments, it stands to reason that they will less inclined to invest.
The knock on effect of reducing investments into the economy is what exactly?
 
Parker101 said:
Since the stock market began, stocks rise and fall. Markets correct, recover, correct, recover. That's the economic cycle. We often lose sight of this due to the volume of white noise and so called experts out there. Then fear and emotion kick in with our decision making. When Trump gleefully announced in a recent interview that the stock market was at its highest level ever, I sighed. Its not an everlasting gobstopper for Gods sake! Growth is not infinite. Best to look back historically at all the corrections, speed bumps and downturns in the stock market.....and we are still here. I suppose the key is to be diversified, different asset classes etc and not bet on one horse essentially.
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Excellently put.

But it's unlikely that the RTE would broadcast that as a reaction to a fall in the stock market. No one would discuss it. But people are discussing Paul Sommerville's "Panic now, as it's cheaper than panicking later."
 
99% of stock market reporting is simply click-bait or just white noise. As much as is being made out the recent 'correction', the media tend to overdo the 'rally'.
Its the 24/7 news cycle, got to keep the punters on board.
 
PGF2016 said:
I usually treat someone commenting on the stock market on the radio / TV as a vested interest that can and should be ignored.
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Market corrections end when the same clowns who said it couldn't happen start telling you how much further it's going to go down.


Stolen off twitter :)
 
TheBigShort said:
99% of stock market reporting is simply click-bait or just white noise. As much as is being made out the recent 'correction', the media tend to overdo the 'rally'.
Its the 24/7 news cycle, got to keep the punters on board.
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like fox news and there " infotainment "

the likes of cnbc need to keep things sensational , hence every pullback is a potential 2008

i actually agree with sarenco about a 25% pullback not being a disaster , when it happened in 1987 , it took two years to recover but that was after a big rise from 1982 , the 50% plus drop in 2008 - early 2009 was a massive deal however , not only did it take more than twice as long to recover , its not like the market prior to crash had had a strong run , it was still no higher than in the year 2000 , the situation was even worse for those exclusively invested in europe ( germany being the exception ) who have now not seen any real worthwhile gains in decades and who would have been better putting there money in a savings account at the start of this century , lot of stress avoided
 
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galway_blow_in said:
i actually agree with sarenco about a 25% pullback not being a disaster , when it happened in 1987 , it took two years to recover but that was after a big rise from 1982 , the 50% plus drop in 2008 - early 2009 was a massive deal however , not only did it take more than twice as long to recover , its not like the market prior to crash had had a strong run , it was still no higher than in the year 2000 , the situation was even worse for those exclusively invested in europe ( germany being the exception ) who have now not seen any real worthwhile gains in decades and who would have been better putting there money in a savings account at the start of this century , lot of stress avoided
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On the face of it, if you have 40% gains followed by 25% pull-back of course its no big deal (allowing for inflation over the period of investment and relative to returns on other investments outside the stock market).

I was thinking more in terms as to why there is a pull-back at all. If markets continue on a downward trajectory for a sustained period it indicates all is not well in the wider economy. The recent ‘correction’, to me, implies nothing more than an interpretation of news. That interpretation may subsequently prove to be justified or unjustified. A stock market that continues on a downward trajectory over a sustained period indicates to me wider fundamental issues in the economy.

Personally I think stock markets are, in no insignificant amount, propped up by cheap money. This correction appears to have occurred on the news that wages growth has returned. Personally I would, at this juncture, interpret that as a positive.
 
TheBigShort said:
On the face of it, if you have 40% gains followed by 25% pull-back of course its no big deal (allowing for inflation over the period of investment and relative to returns on other investments outside the stock market).

I was thinking more in terms as to why there is a pull-back at all. If markets continue on a downward trajectory for a sustained period it indicates all is not well in the wider economy. The recent ‘correction’, to me, implies nothing more than an interpretation of news. That interpretation may subsequently prove to be justified or unjustified. A stock market that continues on a downward trajectory over a sustained period indicates to me wider fundamental issues in the economy.

Personally I think stock markets are, in no insignificant amount, propped up by cheap money. This correction appears to have occurred on the news that wages growth has returned. Personally I would, at this juncture, interpret that as a positive.
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as i referred to earlier within the context of this pullback , the news which applies to the u.s market doesnt in anyway apply to europe ( lofty valuations and planned rate rises ) yet europe has fallen further than the u.s year to date

where is the logic bar european markets having zero independence ?
 
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