....While that is true, any game of chance will produce a statistical outcome determined by the arithmetic of the game. If you play long or often enough it is a practical certainty that the average outcome will be achieved. This is the so-called "law of large numbers". With prize bonds it is a matter of investing a sufficient amount for the average to be achieved within a short time horizon. With a single prize bond there is essentially no chance of this occurring, with €100k+ there is a very good chance of achieving the typical return (currently 0.8% tax free) over the course of a year. Many people seem completely unable to grasp this -- they get indignant at the thought that their couple of mouldy old bonds sitting in a shoebox for years have less chance of winning than someone else's freshly minted €100k worth, and believe nutty conspiracy theories about "only newer bonds winning".