State Pension Forecasting ....

galway_blow_in said:
i fully accept it wont happen , the government caved in over wealthy pensioners and medical cards circa 2009 , they arent going to reduce the state pension no matter how bad things are
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Most likely it will just be frozen and thus decline in value over time. And they won't have a choice about it because there simply is not enough payers to sustain it.

Most likely it will be an EU decision in the end not an Irish one. All EU states are in the same situation and are all moving in the same direction. No politician wants to be the one to deliver the bad news, so the easy solution is to make it at the EU level, that way they can all go home to their respective states claiming the EU made them do it.
 
Jim2007 said:
It is absolutely not welfare under any stretch of the imagination.
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thats only true for a minority of recipients , the majority of recipients draw down a lot more than they put in during their working lives in PRSI , then you have recipients who hardly put in anything and in some cases nothing at all
 
galway_blow_in said:
thats only true for a minority of recipients , the majority of recipients draw down a lot more than they put in during their working lives in PRSI , then you have recipients who hardly put in anything and in some cases nothing at all
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How would somebody that has made no PRSI contributions qualify for the State (Contributory) Pension?
 
Unless we get the auto enrolment system up and running we will see those who took out private pensions subsidising those who did not bother considering the longer term.

The state should not be on the hook for people who don't take responsibility in at least in part for their own future. What about all of us who do take responsibility and still end up digging others out.
 
The problem now is that with the massive money that has been spent so far on the corona, the flexibility and time the government thought they had on how to pay for pensions is now gone.
Of course the government has studiously avoided talking about how the corona is going to be paid for and who is going to pay for it.
There are worrying signals on the bond markets that endless borrowing to pay for everything might not last too long as interest rates need to move higher.
 
Sarenco said:
How would somebody that has made no PRSI contributions qualify for the State (Contributory) Pension?
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based on the OP , i was not aware that this discussion was exclusively related to the contributory pension but even it is ?

most who are in receipt of the contributory state pension will draw down a lot more than they made in contributions , that canadian lady Jill Kirby has written about this on more than one occasion in the irish media
 
I think people get a little over anxious about these things.
I've been hearing about the pension crisis for decades.
Ultimately, the purpose of government is to distribute income fairly.
As more and more capital accumulates in the hands of fewer and fewer people, the state will have to intervene more aggressively to ensure everyone has access to sufficient capital. In particular, as labour becomes less rewarding or less necessary.
It's far more likely that, in the future, universal basic incomes will be the norm.
 
Can I ask if your not going to start a pension for fear that a personal pension might disqualify from the state pension
What are you going to do with the excess income that is not been invested in a pension ???
 
Allpartied said:
I think people get a little over anxious about these things.
I've been hearing about the pension crisis for decades.
Ultimately, the purpose of government is to distribute income fairly.
As more and more capital accumulates in the hands of fewer and fewer people, the state will have to intervene more aggressively to ensure everyone has access to sufficient capital. In particular, as labour becomes less rewarding or less necessary.
It's far more likely that, in the future, universal basic incomes will be the norm.
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Government doesn't make choices re_ the state pension based on any concept of fairness , it's entirely down to voter muscle
 
galway_blow_in said:
most who are in receipt of the contributory state pension will draw down a lot more than they made in contributions
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Can you point me to anything to back this up?

Bear in mind that employer PRSI contributions are significant source of funding.
 
Cervelo said:
Can I ask if your not going to start a pension for fear that a personal pension might disqualify from the state pension
What are you going to do with the excess income that is not been invested in a pension ???
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The only rational course of action, would be to retire early.

Take the savings, at age 50, live on it until the state pension becomes available. Make voluntary PRSI contributions in the meantime.
 
Jim2007 said:
It is absolutely not welfare under any stretch of the imagination.
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It is in some cases. Under the old system, if someone made ten successive minimum SI contributions (€500 PA) from age 56 to 66, they would get a full contributory state pension.

The retirement welfare payment they receive would cover their total contributions in under six months.
 
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All payments by the state are "welfare" to some extent in that they transfer money collected from taxes to recipients.

Society has to decide
1. how to collect money to pay for various services provided by the State and
2. how to distribute these monies to those providing the services and to other recipients as "welfare"
3. how much to borrow from future generations of tax payers to provide services today from tomorrow's taxes

It is society who decide who is deserving and who isn't by setting the rules for managing the level of payments, deciding the recipients
 
jpd said:
All payments by the state are "welfare" to some extent in that they transfer money collected from taxes to recipients.
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I disagree.

Social insurance is a socialised insurance programme against economic risk.

Some contributors will live long lives and collect more than they contributed in premiums (PRSI), while some will die young and collect less or nothing at all. But this does not make it welfare.

Compare with house insurance - most folks pay premiums their whole lives and collect nothing. An unlucky minority suffer a fire or flood and collect far more than they contribute. Does that make it welfare? Of course not.

Does it make any difference if a State agency collects the premiums? Nope.

@galway_blow_in stated above that most who are in receipt of the contributory state pension will draw down a lot more than they made in contributions. I would be very interested to see if there is any factual basis for this assertion but I suspect it's untrue.
 
Except that PRSI brings in about € 10B and Social Welfare spending is about € 20B so where is the insurance in that?

Any private insurance running on that basis would be out of business in a flash
 
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