Sobering Morgan kelly article in today's Times . .

michaelm

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If you thought the bank bailout was bad, wait until the mortgage defaults hit home


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That article is absolutely terrifying, especially considering it's source.
 
Nonsense - the country has turned a corner, and Kelly has never ever been right.

I beleive that he called the property bust correctly but was widely vilified at the time.

Given his prognostics this time, I can only hope his current critics are correct, but I'm not so sure they'll have more luck than the last time.
 
I beleive that he called the property bust correctly but was widely vilified at the time.

Didn't he says that it would be better to incinerate €1.5bn than to put it into Anglo? Wild nonsense.
 
Nonsense - the country has turned a corner, and Kelly has never ever been right.

I beleive that he called the property bust correctly but was widely vilified at the time.

Given his prognostics this time, I can only hope his current critics are correct, but I'm not so sure they'll have more luck than the last time.
I think you can add a ":rolleyes:" to the end of canicemcavoy's post.
 
That article is absolutely terrifying, especially considering it's source.

Terrifying enough to drive me drink, or at least finalise my family's escape plan.

The only thing that surprises me in the article is that Kelly says he has no solution, which is quite a worrying thing to hear from him. In my opinion the only solution is default (or renegotiate to be pc) and let the banks fail, and then start from scratch.
 
Didn't he says that it would be better to incinerate €1.5bn than to put it into Anglo? Wild nonsense.
Why is it nonsense?

If briquettes were made from the money, at least people would get some heat from it. Anglo is just a black hole (just like the rest of the Irish banks)
 
Its unfair to expect anyone to have heeded Kelly's warnings. He was too sensationalist. Just couldn't take him seriously. How was I to know it was foolish to fill my boots with AIB shares, or to believe that NAMA would wash its face? Hardly my fault. In fact, when you think about it, its really all Kelly's fault. :mad:
 
I've followed this website for some years but have hesitated to post.

Firstly, I think it's a pity there isn't a well defined "deeply ironic" smiley for the above posters to use.

Secondly, whereas other boards have been discussing Morgan Kelly's article to many pages,there seems to be a relative silence here on Askaboutmoney.

Why dat?
 
I disagree that we are on the verge of mass mortgage default. A more likely path, but still astounding, is that there will be a shift of assets back from people in the 50-80 age bracket to those in the 25-45 age bracket. The family unit will extend where part of a parent's pension will be paying part of the adult children's mortgage.

I think that Kelly contributes significantly to the discussion however I think that the potential for a catastrophic economic collapse if the banks had been allowed to fail is ignored. If the government had let Anglo fail we may have been commended for that decision or we may have been crucified, who knows?
 
I've followed this website for some years but have hesitated to post.

Firstly, I think it's a pity there isn't a well defined "deeply ironic" smiley for the above posters to use.

Secondly, whereas other boards have been discussing Morgan Kelly's article to many pages,there seems to be a relative silence here on Askaboutmoney.

That's you, isn't it, Morgan? Come to rub our faces in it. I reckon you should be tried for economic treason.
 
That's you, isn't it, Morgan? Come to rub our faces in it. I reckon you should be tried for economic treason.


Wish I had his salary;)

When the bulldozers go in to the first ghost estate (or has happened Ross O'Carroll Kelly,empty apartment block) then we can get Morgan to predict the lottery numbers.
 
I disagree that we are on the verge of mass mortgage default. A more likely path, but still astounding, is that there will be a shift of assets back from people in the 50-80 age bracket to those in the 25-45 age bracket. The family unit will extend where part of a parent's pension will be paying part of the adult children's mortgage.

I think that Kelly contributes significantly to the discussion however I think that the potential for a catastrophic economic collapse if the banks had been allowed to fail is ignored. If the government had let Anglo fail we may have been commended for that decision or we may have been crucified, who knows?

So you are saying that parents in their 70s for example are going to help their children in negative equity to pay their mortgage. I think it is much more likely that the "children"will plead inability to pay and let the banks do what they will. Or maybe you think that the government will reduce the pensions to help mortgage holders.The greens and some backbencher fianna failers say they will vote against any cuts to pensions.
If the government had let the banks to fail we would be saved the huge cost of saving them ...at least 80e billlion+ The upcoming budget which is causing such anxiety is only 15 billion e over 4 years.The government was listening to the vested interests....an elite of rich stock holders,bondholders and bankers in trying the conjuring trick of saving them. The interests of the vast majority of irish people was openly ignored,as they will soon realise what the politicians really think of them as they are asked to pay for the mess.
 
I've followed this website for some years but have hesitated to post.

Firstly, I think it's a pity there isn't a well defined "deeply ironic" smiley for the above posters to use.

Secondly, whereas other boards have been discussing Morgan Kelly's article to many pages,there seems to be a relative silence here on Askaboutmoney.

Why dat?

I tend to agree, I find alot, but not all people here are tend to have a business/establishment perspective and lend towards a right wing philosophy...I have read posts where left wing commentators like McWilliams, O'Toole, Browne, Kelly have been lampooned and I even recall one thread by a guy called Turbo Tim calling Nobel prize winning economist Stigliz a buffoon for his critique on NAMA...everyone has their right to a logical critique but I do find that certain posters here just want to stick their fingers in their ears and whistle dixie everytime a left wing commentator unleashes the horrible truth!
 
The indebted mortgage generation (personal note - I am a 50's mortgage paid person) are very internet savvy. I can see a Facebook page along the lines of "We won't pay our mortgage".A mass movement of defaulters is much easier to organise nowadays.
 
Secondly, whereas other boards have been discussing Morgan Kelly's article to many pages,there seems to be a relative silence here on Askaboutmoney.

Why dat?
I have popped back to this thread a few times today hoping that someone would have some good reasons why the article is wrong - still waiting and hoping...
 
It isn't wrong: 1 + 1 is still 2

But the political consequences of that are pretty awful and it's easier to stick your head in the sand and hope the pain will go away!
 
I think it is much more likely that the "children"will plead inability to pay and let the banks do what they will.

I think that what you say is the rational approach but Irish people are not rational when it comes to property. The prospect that a person will not be able to get a mortgage for the next 5/10/15 years will lead to continued irrational action. You will see revisions of mortgage terms to 40 or 50 years or even longer than life mortgages. The government will try to placate homeowners by forcing the banks to allow customers to retain tracker rates when extending the term.This will stave off a further property crash. I am not saying any of this is a good idea, only that I think it is likely.

If the government had let the banks to fail we would be saved the huge cost of saving them ...at least 80e billlion+
This is a bit like Enda's plan to save €5bn, it is half a story. You assume that there would have been no cost to state if the banks had failed. I do not know what the cost would have been but I do not think it is plausible that it would have been zero.
 
I have popped back to this thread a few times today hoping that someone would have some good reasons why the article is wrong - still waiting and hoping...

I don't think the article is right - like most economists, Morgan Kelly misses vital points.
Morgan Kelly forgets the scenario that started all this - the crooked Banks having no money.
We could not let the lifeblood of the economy simply stop - we had to face the facts of life and support the disastrously, incompetently run banks because to fail to do so would have resulted in far worse structural damage all at once.
With a budget overspend in the tens of billions we could not shaft the bondholders, whose incestuous relationship with each other and our European funders meant that we would be biting the hand that would be asked to lend us money.
The solution is to agree to get our overspend under control and to start thinking about unwinding interest added loans and debts and rewinding them into a fixed added sum debt plus the capital amount borrowed.

I said it at the start of my posting history here and I'll say it again - Christ threw the money lenders from the temple for a reason - paying interest to speculative moneylenders results in crippling debt.
We need certainty on the amount, an extended timeframe in which to pay it, and reduced payments per month/year to allow us to do so.
It is simply not good enough to let people default and cause problems for others who are managing to repay their debt.
This applies to all debts that cannot be repaid.

And if someone says "this goes against all the banking rules" I say fine! This is the only workable solution!

(well, the only one I can think of anyway)

The banks and the finance houses - either national not international - have no moral ground to stand on, and a bankrupt Ireland leaving the EU is the alternative.
No doubt this would bring a tear of joy to some people in the finance houses in in America and Germany, but only until the first car bomb went off.

Oh, and yes, we must undo with the Croke Park Agreement
The private sector is decimated, with people not having to face wage and salery cuts, but no profitable work and unemployment.
It seems clear to me at that particular coal face that at this stage the "social partners" have to see reason - they are a rope around our necks.

ONQ.
 
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