LDFerguson
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Because you won't know for certain if it is entering into a prolonged recovery period or if you're just witnessing a "dead cat bounce".
Should I have nearly all my money invested with quinn.
- Thread starter Nomansland
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Because you won't know for certain if it is entering into a prolonged recovery period or if you're just witnessing a "dead cat bounce".
Z
z103
Guest
Surely buying shares that have been trending upwards for the last 4 or 5 months is better than randomly buying them?
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hagler
Guest
Hi Folks,
2 years ago I invested €10,000 of a redundancy in the Irish Life Property Portfolio fund. It is split across Irish/British and European commercial property. Was just looking to earn a bit on it but I ended up getting blinded by figures by a very astute bank adviser who didn’t explain any risks to me whatsoever. It is a 5 year plan so I am still liable for a cash in charge if I were to cash in. As it is there is a 6 month notice period in place now anyway to try to deter investors from pulling out.
I am really worried by the way it is falling in value rapidly. Since march this year to right now the unit price has fallen 17c per unit. I am almost a grand down what I paid in and less with the cash in charge if I were to bail out now. I don’t know whether to take the hit and lose €1,000 - €1,500 and still have something or stay in for the long haul in the hope it picks up again. At this stage I would be delighted to just come out with what I paid in after the 5 years or even if it took a few more years.
Really appreciate if anybody has any advice on these funds?
2 years ago I invested €10,000 of a redundancy in the Irish Life Property Portfolio fund. It is split across Irish/British and European commercial property. Was just looking to earn a bit on it but I ended up getting blinded by figures by a very astute bank adviser who didn’t explain any risks to me whatsoever. It is a 5 year plan so I am still liable for a cash in charge if I were to cash in. As it is there is a 6 month notice period in place now anyway to try to deter investors from pulling out.
I am really worried by the way it is falling in value rapidly. Since march this year to right now the unit price has fallen 17c per unit. I am almost a grand down what I paid in and less with the cash in charge if I were to bail out now. I don’t know whether to take the hit and lose €1,000 - €1,500 and still have something or stay in for the long haul in the hope it picks up again. At this stage I would be delighted to just come out with what I paid in after the 5 years or even if it took a few more years.
Really appreciate if anybody has any advice on these funds?
G
georgesoros
Guest
It's important to recognise the existance of vested interests who make their money from any and all market activity. They get commission whether the market goes up or down. They exist on this forum and will try to downplay all risk in the market, calling caution ' a mugs game' so take their advice with a pinch of salt. The only way they dont' maintain their high incomes and standards of living is if you are cautious with your money and dont' let them have it.
You are in a better state than many investors. You’ve suffered a loss of about 10%. On the basis that a loss foregone is the same as a profit made you haven’t done too badly, when you consider the losses in the equity markets over the past year (particularly the Iseq). 'Bricks & mortar' property funds are supposed to provide lower volatility than equities, which is what this fund is doing. I’d guess that the fund will decline further over the next 18 months or so as a lack of activity in the general economy will probably translate into a lower demand for commercial property. A major risk would be if a lot of investors pile out and force Irish Life to sell a property in a poorly performing market, which would cause the fund value to fall further. Funds of this type need a long investment horizon anyway, at least 5 years - maybe more.
As fare as I can remember, the Irish Life brochure advertising the fund dealt with the risks in some level of detail – perhaps more than other fund providers do.
LDFerguson
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Wouldn't that be nice? Sadly, I don't get paid for market activity, nor do I get paid commission based on whether the market goes up or down. But I'm sure that there are such dastardly vested interests out there.
Any vested interest to declare yourself George?
LDFerguson
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Getting back to the original point, I note that georgesoros has offered no verifiable proof that he or anyone else can time equity markets.
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z103
Guest
So what do stock market traders do all day then?
I guessing that gold will probably rise, and Irish banks will continue to fall.
You call that proof? Traders trade all day, some make money, the rest lose money, on average they break even before costs. There have been hundreds of statistical studies done on market timing, there's none that I know of that works on independent samples. Some perform better than average during particular time periods, but then buying stocks starting with the letter 'A' also does better than average during some time periods. If you have any evidence of a strategy that outperforms on independent samples I'm all ears.
Morgan 2.0
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Day traders trade for the same reason gamblers gamble. It's exactly the same. It's a game for them. It's a sport.
Nobody can predict short term price fluctuations. Everybody can predict that the stock market will produce decent returns over a sustained period of time.
Put your money into several funds of some sort, and hold it for a few decades. That's where the smart money is, and always has been.
The market is efficient. All statistical data points to this as being a fact.
Well said morgan!
charttrader
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"I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.” — Warren Buffett
[FONT="]From my thesis:[/FONT]
[FONT="]The law of averages says that some fund managers will beat the market from time to time. [/FONT]
[FONT="]However, there are very few managers who will systematically beat the market regularly. Academic studies show that active management or speculation in fact adds uncertainty in outcomes as the distributions are wider in the tails.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Where a manager may be able to beat the market regularly, it would be impossible for us to identify who these managers might be in advance and therefore impossible to benefit from this.[/FONT]
So, yes I accept that sometimes markets are not efficient. My point is that it is virtually impossible to profit from it as nearly 40 years of empirical research into the consistency of performance of fund managers shows.
[FONT="][/FONT]
[FONT="]The law of averages says that some fund managers will beat the market from time to time. [/FONT]
[FONT="]However, there are very few managers who will systematically beat the market regularly. Academic studies show that active management or speculation in fact adds uncertainty in outcomes as the distributions are wider in the tails.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Where a manager may be able to beat the market regularly, it would be impossible for us to identify who these managers might be in advance and therefore impossible to benefit from this.[/FONT]
So, yes I accept that sometimes markets are not efficient. My point is that it is virtually impossible to profit from it as nearly 40 years of empirical research into the consistency of performance of fund managers shows.
[FONT="][/FONT]
The way things are looking you will be lucky to get back to 26k at the end of 10 years. We are in a recession which could well be a prolonged recession because personally I don't trust the current worldwide political leadership to be able to get us out of that recession.