Russian Foreign Policy

odyssey06 said:
There is now a gas glut in Europe due to a mild October and increase in LNG ...
www.linkedin.com

Gas: the haves and have-nots | LinkedIn

Surprisingly, Europe has more gas than it can use. But not everyone will be benefitting. Who might pay less than expected this winter?
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In a discussion about haves and have-nots it's worth looking at what is going on in DRC (Congo) at the moment. The biggest war since the second world war, which has already killed over 5 million people, and displaced at least that amount again, is turning how again. If you think oil companies are unethical an that bothers you then you certainly shouldn't be buying an electric car.
 
I think a lot of wishful thinking in that report and of course it would be all our wishes as well. But from what I read in other sources Putin and his special operation are still very popular at home.
It seems to me that the Ukrainian conditions for negotiations to begin, viz. that Russia withdraws from all annexed regions including Crimea is not realistic. And by all accounts the Ukrainian population are losing out much more than the Russian population. The stage must come when the West accepts that continuing to support Ukraine in a futile counter offensive is not doing Ukraine or indeed themselves any favours. I think the Republicans in the US are already in that space.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I think a lot of wishful thinking in that report and of course it would be all our wishes as well. But from what I read in other sources Putin and his special operation are still very popular at home.
It seems to me that the Ukrainian conditions for negotiations to begin, viz. that Russia withdraws from all annexed regions including Crimea is not realistic. And by all accounts the Ukrainian population are losing out much more than the Russian population. The stage must come when the West accepts that continuing to support Ukraine in a futile counter offensive is not doing Ukraine or indeed themselves any favours. I think the Republicans in the US are already in that space.
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Well Ukraine itself must come to that decision, after all they are doing the suffering.

The other issue with your proposal is that if the war ends without Russia suffering a decisive loss, and its people understanding that they have suffered a decisive loss, it will just be a pause before they try again.
 
China is now importing almost all of the oil from Russia that Europe used to import. Their Gas imports are only limited by the delivery infrastructure. The only thing stopping massive increases in fuel prices and a corresponding massive recession in Europe is China's Covid lockdown and its refusal to use Western Vaccines which are effective against the current Covid variants.

Should the US and EU refuse to give China their vaccines unless it imposes sanctions on Russian Oil and Gas?
 
Purple said:
China is now importing almost all of the oil from Russia that Europe used to import. Their Gas imports are only limited by the delivery infrastructure. The only thing stopping massive increases in fuel prices and a corresponding massive recession in Europe is China's Covid lockdown and its refusal to use Western Vaccines which are effective against the current Covid variants.

Should the US and EU refuse to give China their vaccines unless it imposes sanctions on Russian Oil and Gas?
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Interesting angle... I'd be concerned about how China are paying for this oil... is Russia getting munitions that way.

Would need to play the vaccine card very carefully.
 
According to this report we haven't got a vaccine card to play. The Chinese vaccine is a bit inferior to Pfizer after the first 2 doses - 70% protection against serious illness or death versus 85%. But after the booster they are both equally effective at 98%. Problem is that China has only 68% of people over 60 who have had their booster - but I don't think that is because of shortages in their own supply.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
According to this report we haven't got a vaccine card to play. The Chinese vaccine is a bit inferior to Pfizer after the first 2 doses - 70% protection against serious illness or death versus 85%. But after the booster they are both equally effective at 98%. Problem is that China has only 68% of people over 60 who have had their booster - but I don't think that is because of shortages in their own supply.
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According to this the non mRNA Chinese vaccines are far less effective against Omicron.
I agree that Chinese people are less likely to get vaccinated because don't trust their government, and why would they?
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
It seems to me that the Ukrainian conditions for negotiations to begin, viz. that Russia withdraws from all annexed regions including Crimea is not realistic. And by all accounts the Ukrainian population are losing out much more than the Russian population. The stage must come when the West accepts that continuing to support Ukraine in a futile counter offensive is not doing Ukraine or indeed themselves any favours.
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Is it not ridiculous for Putin and Russia to be maintaining their own maximalist demands for peace negotiations, Russia is losing the war and yet they are still looking to hold on to all the annexed territory as a precondition, thats just preposterous.
Until and unless Putin gives some indication of realistic conditions for peace talks mainly that Russia returns to the pre february 2022 situation then there is absolutely no basis for talks. This is actually the time when the West needs to increase pressure and support for Ukraine now that Russia is at its weakest. Every attempt to give Putin an off ramp was rejected by him.
I agree that Ukraine is paying the biggest price in that they are the ones that are fighting and dying in this war but I don't see how it is futile for the West to keep supporting Ukraine because ultimately a defeated and humbled Russia can only be beneficial for Europe the west and eventually Russia. The price for the West is not that large as our economies have largely weathered the energy shock so I don't see the big risk for the West in continuing to support Ukraine. For Putin though the continuing strong support for Ukraine is the end of his regime and the "novo Russia" stupidity
 
Russia obviously failed in what it believed would be a two week operation to annex all of Ukraine. But it did fairly easily annex the Russian supporting separatist regions. Much as I would celebrate as anyone else, I find it difficult to see Ukraine reversing those annexations which it failed to repel in the first place. The US might see strategic advantage in continuing to encourage Ukraine to pursue that objective but the time might come when Europe and Ukraine itself sees that pursuit as hopeless and much more damaging to themselves than to Russia. The imminent collapse of Russia seems to me an immense indulgence in wishful thinking as the resilience of the Rouble and the Russian economy seems to indicate.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
The imminent collapse of Russia seems to me an immense indulgence in wishful thinking as the resilience of the Rouble and the Russian economy seems to indicate
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Maybe there is a little wishful thinking and delusion regarding Russia. But surely Putin and Russia are the ones that are totally deluded about their own strengths mostly stemming from misplaced mythology rather than cold hard realities.

Maybe this whole war was a result of western conservatism and reluctance to provoke Putin. If the west had given Ukraine strong military support in the lead up to February 2022, Putin would have backed down. We have seen him back down several times since February when he was confronted with strong western resolve to oppose him. We have learned from this episode that the west needs to show its teeth now and again .
 
Good article in today's Irish Times highlighting our complete inability to defend ourselves and how hypocritical our stance on neutrality is.
We have 16% of the EU's territorial waters and over 60% of the EU's underwater cables run through those waters. We have 2 ships to patrol them and neither one is a real Naval ship.

Basically we have no air force, no air defence and defence radar. We have very limited Cyber Defensive capability. We have no Navy worth talking about, no Naval ships with any meaningful defensive or offensive weapons capability and a tiny army with no heavy weapons capability.

That means that we are not Neutral. We rely on the UK to defend our airspace and our territorial waters if required but we can't even tell them if we need to hide behind their apron strings because we don't have the capability to see anyone coming.
 
Neutrality does not mean, 'armed to the teeth and ready to defend ourselves against all comers'.

Neutrality means not taking sides in other peoples wars. Military neutrality means not taking sides militarily in other peoples wars. Political neutrality means not taking sides politically in other peoples wars.

Ireland is militarily neutral, I think this is a very good thing. It is in Irelands self-interest which self-interest is the business of the Irish state.

In the present conflict Ireland is not politically neutral, as we lend political support to Ukraine. I am not convinced this is wise.

We also offer substantial practical support to Ukranian refugees, which I wholeheartedly support. That is not support for one side in this war, it is humanitarian support for people in a desperate situation.
 
Regarding our defence, our geographical position is our best defence against all comers except our nearest neighbours, and their imperial ambitions seem to have waned recently.

Our Naval service seems to do good work protecting our fisheries. This is effectively a policing rather than a military role, and should be well resourced in proportion to the needs of that policing role.

Purple said:
We have ... over 60% of the EU's underwater cables
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These were not installed by Irish interests and are not used by Ireland except in proportion to our size. We have no specific responsibility to protect them just because they run through Irish waters. I have no responsibility to care for the ESB pole in my garden.

Purple said:
We have very limited Cyber Defensive capability.
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This is a very important point. The cyber attack on the HSE last year was a warning to us. This is a genuine security concern and we should be developing the capability to defend ourselves in this regard.

In fact I firmly believe the reality of this threat highlights the unreality of military threats against us.
 
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