Russian Foreign Policy

I was watching a BBC studio newscaster this morning, who interviewed a Ukrainian general.

She asked him about their supplies – as in ordnance - what they had and how they were getting to them. He sidestepped her questions several times but due to her persistence had to say that is secret information.

As people of my age are wont to do, I was almost shouting at the TV - loose lips sink ships.

I also suspect that Ukraine would have received the Mig-29s by now if some bigmouth hadn’t made the plans public.
 
I am kinda hoping that the MIGs are coming in slowly already to replace lost MIGs and this is a smokescreen. But not sure...
Dropping them all at once would be obvious.
 
odyssey06 said:
I am kinda hoping that the MIGs are coming in slowly already to replace lost MIGs and this is a smokescreen. But not sure...
Dropping them all at once would be obvious.
Click to expand...

If Russia see a plane fly to Ukraine from a NATO country you can be pretty sure they will declare it an act of war by NATO - they are classified as offensive rather than defensive weapons (such as missiles)
 
EmmDee said:
If Russia see a plane fly to Ukraine from a NATO country you can be pretty sure they will declare it an act of war by NATO - they are classified as offensive rather than defensive weapons (such as missiles)
Click to expand...
If they see it flying... could it fly low to evade radar? Or em be driven \ towed along a road... possibly crazy ideas
 
Interesting article from the Jerusalem Post about the realpolitik of bringing an end to the whole horrible business. Once the war is finished I think there will have to be an EU "Marshall Plan" programme to fortify Ukrainian civil society and build trade, cultural, educational links as well as offering enhanced migration opportunities into EU countries.

One silver lining that has already emerged has been the ability of the EU to move at warp speed when its back is against the wall. To my mind, that needs to be baked in and given more prominence. I'm also detecting a certain (unspoken) regret from some of the Brexiteers that, well, the European project isn't all that bad and just maybe removing Britain's armed forces from the EU bloc wasn't the smartest move.
 
And another silver lining is the cementing of EU internal relations.
Poland in particular seems to very suddenly become very pro-Eu with seeing what is happening on their doorstep.

You also get a feeling that some communication is going on in the background with markets turning positive and oil prices falling.

Possibly this may not be as protracted as we fear
 
yea thats very true, the EU has moved very fast this time but only because Zelensky has put the EU full square at the centre of this war . It is the personality and charisma of Zelensky the no1 target of Putin putting his life in danger for the ideals of the EU against the tyranny of Putins regime that is the stand out from all this. Another standout is the bravery and courage of Poland in going further than anyone else in backing up Ukraine and Zelensky despite Putin's threats.
 
EmmDee said:
If Russia see a plane fly to Ukraine from a NATO country you can be pretty sure they will declare it an act of war by NATO - they are classified as offensive rather than defensive weapons (such as missiles)
Click to expand...

I don't think Russia would be as quick to declare war on NATO, especially the way things are going for them at the moment.

I think there will be restraint if there is any accident, NATO don't want to get sucked in (they don't need to at the moment as the Russians STILL don't have air superiority). Remember Turkey shot down Russian jets in Syria and US special Forces killed Russian soldiers at Deir ez Zor and other clashes. Not as clear as Ukraine but still not as simple as 'declare war' at first sight either. You can be damn sure the Ukrainians are getting direction on the ground also. They are showing quite advanced tactics in some areas, they seem to be trying to fix the Russians in place, prevent manoeuvrability but also not annihilating stationary units either, trying to prevent the destruction of as much infrastructure as possible.
 
More blatant lies from the Russians:

Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, tells a Turkish reporter: “We are not planning to attack other countries. We didn’t attack Ukraine, either.”

What Happened on Day 15 of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

At least three cities in western and central Ukraine were hit. In besieged Mariupol, bodies are now being buried in trenches. President Biden will call for suspending normal trade relations with Russia.
www.nytimes.com

Honestly, do they think we are all blind & stupid or something?
 
They have no plausible legitimate reason for the invasion \ war they have to resort to the 'big lie'.
The lie has to be so big you have to accept it as a test of loyalty. No even pretence about it so that you could comfort yourself with well it might be true... Straight from the totalitarian Nazi \ Soviet \ Orwellian (ahem Orwell Road) state playbook.
 
The news continues to be unrelentingly that the Russians are demonic.
I think it is possible for two nuclear powers to militarily engage with each other without going all-in. Haven't India and Pakistan done it several times? Still, there would be queues to make your last confession.
 
In theory yes, especially if no attacks were made on targets inside each other's territory and all combat occurred in\over Ukraine. Assuming both sides have some concept of limitation and rules of engagement. Limit to conventional warfare in those borders.

Modern air defence systems may complicate that though... do missiles fired from inside NATO \ Russian territory count?
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
The news continues to be unrelentingly that the Russians are demonic.
Click to expand...

Putin is not what he was. He has become increasingly isolated and trusts no one, not even his generals or the head of the Russian spy service, whom he humiliated publicly. He has taken personal control of the invasion, though his background is KGB rather than military.

The main fear expressed by NATO is that they are not dealing with a rational actor, hence the extreme caution.
 
Posters may find it interesting to re-read the New Stateman article that I linked to in the first post on this thread. It informative on Putin's mindset and motives in this conflict.
Russia still has a substantial military commitment in Syria, where they tested the weapons and tactics they are now using in Europe.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register