RTB: More landlords registered this year than last

Conall Mac Coille from the Bank of Ireland questioned the stats.

New data on increase in private rental accommodation may not be accurate picture, says economist

Conall Mac Coille concerned about discrepancy between number of registered tenancies and figures on sector from 2022 census
www.irishtimes.com

There were 103,035 registered private landlords at the end of the period. The number of registered private tenancies increased by 7.9 per cent over the same period, to 230,006.

Mr Mac Coille said his overarching concern with the data was the discrepancy between the number of registered tenancies and census figures from 2022 that showed approximately 330,000 households in the private rented sector. “That’s 100,000 [tenancies] that have gone missing.”
The economist said he believed that, on balance, landlords probably are leaving the market. “Why is another question.”
...
However, Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe disputed the claim that small landlords were leaving the market, saying “we are seeing an early sign of even a potential increase” in the number of such landlords.
 
JoeRoberts said:
IPOA have consistently missed the main issue by lobbing for tax relief for landlords. That will never get a positive listen and would be better focusing on the regulatory issues facing landlords.
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Agree entirely. The regulatory framework is the real problem. Sure, some positive changes could be made to the tax system as well (shorter write down period for capital expenditure, for example) but tax is secondary.
 
I knew someone would come back when I typed that, but I was feeling lazy. I meant that one set of data cannot be used for another purpose. If we assumed the RTB data are correct, we cannot take this to be showing anything about the number of landlords in the country as this is not part of that dataset.
 
I compared the Q2 2023 figures with the Q1 2024 figures based on numbers, not percentages. In every single cohort (landlords with 1 property, landlords with 2 properties etc.), there is an increase. For example, there is an additional 3700 landlords with 1 property when you compare Q2 2023 with Q1 2024 and so on right up through the cohorts.

There are three possible explanations for this:

1. In the past twelve months, all categories have been out in force buying up and renting out properties. Aside from the funds, these must be cash purchases as Buy to Let lending is still very low.
2. This largely reflects increased compliance, not more landlords.
3. There is something amiss with the RTB figures.
 
4. Conversion from owner-occupancy to private rental. This is not uncommon but very hard to measure.
 

Residential Property Transactions by Non-Households 2023 - Central Statistics Office

www.cso.ie


Residential Property Transactions by Non-Households 2023​



Key Findings​

  • In 2023, non-household entities purchased 12,201 dwellings at market prices with a total value of €4.2 billion, a decrease of 9.8% on the 13,522 purchases made in 2022.
  • Non-household entities in the combined NACE sectors of Public Administration/Education/Human Health & Social Work purchased residential dwellings with a total value of €1.9 billion in 2023, which was more than was purchased by any other NACE sector.
  • Non-household entities in the NACE sector of Construction sold 12,899 residential dwellings in 2023, which was more than was sold by any other NACE sector.
  • Irish registered companies and institutions accounted for €3.9 billion (92.9%) of the total €4.2 billion spent by non-households on residential dwelling purchases in 2023.
  • New dwellings accounted for 52.8% of all purchases made by non-households in 2023.
  • In 2023, non-household entities purchased 6,438 houses. The remaining 5,763 purchases were of apartments.
  • There was a net monetary flow of €3.3 billion to the non-household sector in 2023.


The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (24 July 2024) released Residential Property Transactions by Non-Households 2023.

Commenting on the release, Niall Corkery, Statistician in the Prices Division, said: “This is the first time the CSO has published this information in a stand-alone release. Previously, this information was included on an annual basis in a chapter of the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) monthly release. The data for 2022 can be found in the January 2023 RPPI release, with data for previous years available in the Previous Releases section.

Today’s release provides a breakdown of non-household transactions in volume and value terms by NACE sector (see Editor’s Note below), dwelling status, territory of the participating organisations, and dwelling type. It also contains a breakdown of transactions between and within the household and non-household residential property sectors. Non-household transactions are residential dwelling transactions made by private companies, charitable organisations, and state institutions.

Purchases​

In 2023, non-household entities purchased 12,201 dwellings at market prices, a decrease of 9.8% on the 13,522 purchases made by this group in 2022. The total value of the purchases by non-household entities in 2023 was €4.2 billion, a fall of 8.3% on the 2022 value of €4.6 billion.

Irish registered companies and institutions accounted for €3.9 billion (92.9%) of the €4.2 billion spent on purchases of residential dwellings by non-household entities in 2023. The remaining €302.5 million were purchases of residential property made by non-household entities with a registered address outside Ireland.

Non-household entities belonging to the combined sector of Public Administration/Education/Human Health & Social Work (NACE sectors O, P, Q) purchased residential dwellings with a total value of €1.9 billion in 2023, which was more than was purchased by any other NACE sector. The Financial & Insurance sector (NACE sector K) was the second largest buyer, with a total value of dwelling purchases of €865.2 million. More details on what these NACE sectors include can be found below in the section entitled Non-Household NACE Breakdown.

Of the 12,201 purchases of residential dwellings by non-households in 2023, 6,438 were purchases of houses, and 2,797 (43.4%) of these were purchases of new houses. The remaining house purchases were of existing houses, of which there were 3,641 (56.6%) in 2023. Of the 5,763 apartments purchased by non-households in 2023, 3,642 (63.2%) were purchases of new apartments. The remaining apartment purchases were of existing apartments, of which there were 2,121 (36.8%) in 2023.

Sales​

In 2023, non-household entities sold 19,061 dwellings at market prices, a decrease of 7.8% on the 20,671 sales made by them in 2022. The total value of the sales by non-household entities in 2023 was €7.5 billion, down 1.1% on the 2022 value of €7.6 billion.

In terms of sales, non-household entities in the Construction sector (NACE sector F) sold 12,899 residential properties with a total value of €5.3 billion in 2023, an increase of 13.4% on the total value of sales made by this sector in 2022. Non-household entities in the Construction sector (NACE sector F) accounted for 67.7% of the total volume of sales by non-households in 2023.

Of the 19,061 sales by non-households in 2023, 15,070 (79.1%) were sales of new dwellings. The remaining 3,991 (20.9%) sales were of existing dwellings. When looking at the breakdown of sales by dwelling type, there were 5,754 (30.2%) sales of apartments and 13,307 (69.8%) sales of houses.

Net Flow​

In 2023, there was a net monetary flow of €3.3 billion to the non-household sector from the household sector. Similarly, there was a net flow (in volume terms) of 6,860 residential properties from the non-household sector to the household sector. This indicates that the value and volume of sales by the non-household sector to the household sector was greater than the value and volume of purchases by non-households from households.”
 

Rented from Private Landlords 2022 - Central Statistics Office

www.cso.ie


Rented from Private Landlords 2022​


Introduction​

This research paper has been prepared by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) as part of an exploration into the difference between Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) private tenancy figures and Census 2022 Housing figures on private landlords. This research paper was discussed at the Joint Committee on Housing Local Government and Heritage on 10 October 2023, at which the CSO outlined its work to establish the difference between the datasets and any additional information possible on the characteristics of the properties or the rental arrangements.

The Committee’s discussion can be found at the below web link: Joint Housing Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage - 10 October 2023

The headline findings from Census 2022 were that 330,632 households indicated they rented their homes from a private landlord on 03 April 2022. The RTB published figure for the number of private rented tenancies registered with them as of 31 December 2022 was 246,453. This difference set amounts to 84,179 tenancies.

It should be noted that the original difference of 84,179 related to the difference between the RTB private tenancy figure on 31/12/2022 and the CSO’s rented from private landlord figure from Census night on 03/04/2022.

After an extensive data matching exercise was completed, the final difference between Census 2022 data and RTB data was 73,002 unmatched private rentals (private rentals on the Census 2022 file but not matched in the RTB data). Throughout this research paper, reference is made to the difference between the two data sources as the ‘difference set’. The difference set of 73,002 records is lower than the original difference of 84,179, due to the following reasons:

  • If a property was found to be availing of the rent-a-room scheme in Revenue Rent Tax Credit data, it was taken out of the difference set.
  • If a property was found to be owned by a local authority in Local Property Tax (LPT) data, it was removed from the difference set.
  • Dwellings in which more than one household was recorded in the Census were also excluded.
Based on an extensive assessment of administrative data two categories were identified among the difference set as follows:

  1. Dwellings with informal letting arrangements: Those rental properties which were not registered with the RTB and possessed characteristics which may indicate they may have been subject to informal rental arrangements.
  2. Dwellings with formal rental arrangements: Those rental properties which were not registered with the RTB, but possessed certain characteristics which made them likely to be in the private rental market.
The analysis indicated the existence of 47,754 (65.4%) possible informal rental arrangements and 25,248 (34.6%) possible formal rental arrangements.

This paper uses Census information to provide additional insights to the characteristics of both of these categories. Reviewing the Census information under the headings Geography, Dwelling characteristics, Occupants’ characteristics, and Monthly rent, the following was established:

  • The possible informal rental dwellings were more likely to be located in predominantly rural areas.
  • They were also more likely to be detached houses than possible formal rental dwellings. People living in possible informal rental dwellings were less likely to be unrelated to each other than those living in possible formal rental dwellings.
  • They were also paying on average 30% less rent than the people living in the possible formal rented dwellings.
This work was facilitated through a data matching exercise using Eircodes as a unique identifier which helps identify records in both datasets and determines the difference set in Census records. Administrative data sources – such as the Revenue Local Property Tax – were also used to complement this analysis and the RTB provided different extracts from their data sources to resolve timing issues.

It should be noted that certain informal rental arrangements in the Irish housing market may be currently outside the scope of the RTB regulations – such as owners’ relatives living in a property - but may still lead to a positive response on the Census form. Further information on the methodology and definitions used in this paper, are provided in the paper. It should be noted that the above figures are based on the CSO’s interpretation of the categories for research purposes only.

It should be noted that, in accordance with the Statistics Act 1993, data published by the CSO is published in aggregate form only, which means no person or household can be identified from the data we publish. On this basis, no identifiable information related to the datasets analysed in this report can be shared with the Committee or the RTB.
 
Barra Roantree, Director of the MSC in Economic Policy at Trinity College, Dublin // Senator John Cummins, Fine Gael Spokesperson on Housing // Mary Conway, Chairperson of the Irish Property Owners Association
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The line up tells you Mary hadn't a chance unless she had major media training outside her remit. As an aside, is the IPOA publicly funded in any way ?
 
Am I reading this correctly? The non-household purchasers seem to be mainly funds (described as companies and institutions) and the State/Councils
 

While she did not do very well, I wouldn't agree that it was a car crash. Philip Boucher Hayes, the interviewer, was very antagonistic towards her and she was not allowed to develop her points. I have been in that situation before and it's very difficult to do it well.

She should have brought up the excessive regulation, but the discussion was all about whether the numbers were correct and whether the tax break was justified.

It is also very difficult to argue whether statistics are right or wrong in a radio interview.

Barra Roantree, who is an excellent economist, and an excellent speaker, asserted that the new figures are correct. Conall Mac Coille, who is also excellent, has questioned them.

I don't know what figures are correct at this stage.
Many landlords are leaving the market.
But if they are selling up, why are there not lots of houses available to purchase?

Are the AHB figures included in the RTB data?
 
AHB figures are not included in the data. These are dealt with separately.

If landlords are buying, what are they buying? There is very little second hand stock and practically all new builds are bought by funds, AHBs, Councils or first time buyers. Also very little Buy to Let borrowing as well.
 
@Brendan Burgess
A bad choice of words on my part!
I am terrible under such pressure and much less pressure than on this interview. I completely crumble!
Have cried in job interviews.
Not almost cried. Actually cried!

While normally the radio might just be on in background, this interview caught my ear.
Interview tone sounded 'harsh'.
'Antagonistic' is a better word.
 
Greenbook said:
If landlords are buying, what are they buying? There is very little second hand stock and practically all new builds are bought by funds, AHBs, Councils or first time buyers. Also very little Buy to Let borrowing as wewell.
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I've no idea what they are buying, I've been looking for well over a year and all I'm seeing in the area I'm looking are played out rentals with embarrassingly low former rents that I'd inherit on buying.

There is next to nothing for me to buy as a result.

For clarity I'm looking particularly at Mullingar and from speaking to Estate agents I'm a lesser spotted creature (landlords) as they are all going the other way to cash out.
 
Same where I am. I'm not looking to buy, but I do keep an eye on Daft and MyHome.

But look at the numbers from the RTB; 224k tenancies at 31 December 2023 and 230k tenancies at 31 March 2024. That is a net increase of 6,000 tenancies in three months, 2,000 new tenancies per month. Did anyone see the impact of this on the ground? Is it a Dublin phenomena?

We have had a net increase of 17k tenancies in 9 months ie. end June 23; 213k tenancies, end March 2024; 230k tenancies.
 
The overarching problem is the RTB itself. It needs to be shut down, staff and systems let go and start from scratch with decent leadership.

No one currently employed can be reemployed.

Its. just. not.fit .for.purpose.
 
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If you were to believe the RTB, there is no housing crisis. Just more and more LLs and Rentals entering the market every year.
 
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