Key Post Q2 Mortgage Arrears Stats issued

Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

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Summary

  • The number of mortgage accounts for principal dwelling houses (PDH) in arrears fell for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q2 2014. A total of 126,005 (16.5 per cent) of accounts were in arrears at end-Q2, a decline of 4.7 per cent relative to Q1.
  • PDH mortgage accounts in arrears over 90 days continued to fall during Q2. The number of accounts in arrears over 90 days at end-June was 90,343 (11.8 per cent of total), reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3 per cent. This represents the third consecutive decline in the number of PDH accounts in arrears over 90 days.
  • However, this decline in arrears over 90 days masks a continuing increase in very long-term arrears. PDH accounts in arrears over 720 days increased by 1,752 (5 per cent) during Q2 and now account for 4.9 per cent of total PDH mortgage accounts. The total outstanding balance on PDH accounts in arrears over 720 days was just under €8 billion at end-June, equivalent to 7.5 per cent of the total outstanding balance on PDH mortgage loans.
  • Some 101,973 PDH mortgage accounts were classified as restructured at end-June, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3 per cent. Of these restructured accounts, 81.2 per cent were deemed to be meeting the terms of their current restructure arrangement. The largest increases in restructures were recorded in the categories of split mortgages and arrears capitalisations.
  • Buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage accounts in arrears over 90 days increased by 2.3 per cent during the second quarter of the year. However, there was a marginal decline of 0.1 per cent among the banks subject to the Central Bank’s MART targets.
  • There was a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.4 per cent in BTL accounts in arrears over 720 days during Q2. At end-June, there were 14,536 BTL accounts in arrears over 720 days, with an outstanding balance of €4.5 billion. This is equivalent to 16 per cent of the total outstanding balance on all BTL mortgage accounts.
 
Q2 2014
|Accounts|Homes| Arrears
Less than 90 days|35,662|28,500|€54m
90 -360 days|29,348|23,500|€221m
Over 1 year|23,929|19,100|€464m
Over 2 years|37,066|29,600|€1.7 b
Total|126,000|101,000|€2.5billion

Q1 2014
|Accounts|Homes| Arrears
Less than 90 days|39,111|31,300|€66m
90 -360 days|32,557|26,000|€241m
Over 1 year|25,235|20,200|€475m
Over 2 years|35,314|28,200|€1.6 b
Total|132,000|105,600|€2.4billion
 
Comparison with June 2013

|June 2013|June 2014|Change
Up to 90 days|45,018|35,662|-8%
Up to a year|40,711|29,348|-28%
Up to 2 years|28,303|23,929|-15%
Over 2 years|28,860|37,066|+28%
Total arrears cases|142,892|126,005|-9%
Total loan accounts|770,610|762,575
 
So BTL arrears continue to rise despite rents up across the country (through the roof in Dublin) and interest rates falling again to near zero %.
There's a lot of cash disappearing out there and not a sign of a crackdown or reality on repossessions
 
More analysis from the Chicken on the Pin, this time focusing on Local Authroity mortage arrears
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2475
His/her damning conclusions:
At 1.09% of the total, local authority mortgage lending represents a small proportion of overall mortgage lending.
25.02% of local authority loans are in arrears for more than 180 days. The comparable figure for all mortgages is 10.21%,
31.53% of all local authority mortgages are in arrears for more than 90 days.
Click to expand...

My question- if social housing construction increases rapidly in the coming years, and it seems as though it has to, will the local authorities be 'managing' the mortgages?
Because if they are, they might as well throw the keys to 1 in 3 (at least) and tell the taxpayer to stump up to cover the inevitable bad debt.
 
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