1. Will a public sector pay cut take " considerable amounts of money out of the economy"? Yes of course it will. But it is borrowed money. We are borrowing lots of money and we are mortgaging our children's future to have this money in the economy. We know that wide-scale pay cuts reduce the size of the economy. We must do this if it is our "least-worst" option. I think we have no choice but to do it. But perhaps we, as a nation, will make a different choice. I hope not.
Your analysis implies that the impacts of all other options have been seriously evaluated and proven as worse than cutting public sector. What serious analysis has been done on other options to address the deficit, including increasing income tax, increasing CGT, increasing corporation tax and cutting out many of the existing tax reliefs available to the wealthy? You can't rule something as 'least-worst' until you have evaluated all other options.
2. Will a public sector pay cut push "many more people onto the dole". I don't know. Certainly, it won't push any public sector employees onto the dole. Those who sell goods and services to the public sector ( and to the employees of the public sector) will of course see their businesses suffer. So yes - it will produce higher unemployment.
To be honest, I was thinking about direct public job cuts, as mentioned in Caveat's question, but thanks for reminding all about the downstream impact of job cuts. This is not just an sociological issue, this is a real economic issue. More unemployment (direct and downstream) has a direct cost on the state. Is it unreasonable to suggest that perhaps someone should check whether the net economic effects of the job cuts is to save the state money, or possibly to actually cost the state even more money.
3. "Public sector staff have already had a substantial cut in pay via the so-called pensions levy. So the public sector has done its part, and now it is time for others to play their part." Here is where the serious disagreement starts. I am sorry to be blunt but it is just nonsense to suggest that the public sector has 'done its part'. Out here in Reality Land, many people are coping with downturns of 30-50% in business and resultant downturns of 40-60% in their income. Employees are facing 20% pay cuts and mass lay-offs. Of course some private sector employees ( and businesses) are doing quite nicely. But the reality is that the public sector has been disproportionately insulated from the worst effects of the downturn, the brunt of which has been borne by private sector employees. To present the public sector as a 'sole soft target' is, with respect, to take a perspective utterly divorced from reality.
Sorry to dissapoint you, but I live in reality land too. I have direct family members unemployed, and others with salary cuts. I do know what's happening out there. I know that my former colleagues in private sector software industry are whinging about their pay being frozen, but they have had no pay cuts. They did cut some staff, but this was really just a case of 'don't waste the recession', taking the opportunity to dump some staff no longer wanted.
The recent publication of wages by the CSO for Q1 2009 (certain industries) showed very little decreases and (surprise surprise) increases in some area. See
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/08/17/where-are-the-wage-cuts/ for an analysis of these figures, and see
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2009/08/17/where-are-the-wage-cuts/#comment-12453 for confirmation of this analysis by the high priest of the slash-and-cut brigade, Colm McCarthy himself.
As a matter of fact and public record, the public sector is the only sector that has taken an absolute across the board cut.
The benefit of using income tax as the main mechanism for balancing the books now, is that those who are earning will pay, and those who are not earning will not pay.
Works out nicely for you that the solution to all our fiscal problems is to pump money into the economy through high wages and high consumption of public servants. If that's your economic view then why not instead increase the dole, as social welfare will have a higher multiplier impact
Sole target? 200,000 people have lost their jobs. Political action is needed to address public spending and that is why it is being constantly debated. Market forces will dictate non public sector wages.
I didn't suggest anything about 'pumping money'. As MOB accurately notes above, cuts will have direct and downstream effects. Perhaps in the rush to slash-and-burn, somebody should stop and do the sums and see if these cuts will actually save money, or end up costing more money downstream.
Acknowledging that pay increases granted in inflationary times should be reversed in deflationary times is not tantamount to dumping employment protections.
From other posts you seem to be in the school of economics that justified pay raises against the increased housing costs of the last decade. Please show some consistency in the light of increased affordability.
We live in a high cost economy simply because we bought into the 'pay us more because costs of living are increasing' mantra. Well we lost the run of ourselves collectively and got into a vicious circle of wage inflation that has been every bit as damaging as the banking scandals.
There is no moral authority for anyone to berate the banks and builders if they show no willingness to accept the action needed on addressing the current budget deficit arising from unsustainably high public spending
Please stop trying to beat your views into other people. You don't have a monopoly of expertise here. Questioning and challenging your approach does not equate to an unwillingness to solve the problem. There are a range of solutions available, but your absolute and one-sided focus on the slash-and-burn approach does not stand up. Your one-sided analysis of wage inflation doesn't really help us towards a solution either. It wasn't wage inflation that increased property prices. It was the 'perfect storm' of FF/PD planning policy, FF/PD economic policy (giving huge state subsidies to construction and property management, and giving carte-blanche to the banks to inflate prices via flaccid lending controls)