Prize Bonds are looking attractive alternatives to deposits

podgerodge said:
Thanks Duke. What about the wooly answer, don't they talk about stats with roulette colours and numbers and even/odd etc. If you 'divided' all bonds into tranches of whatever, wouldn't it be statistically arguable that the same tranches would be unlikely to come up more often than others. Happy for you to tell me I'm talking nonsense!
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Assuming there is no bias in the random selection....

There is no statistical reason that having any combination of numbers would give an advantage. Our minds are naturally bad at probability - they look for patterns - and casinos and bookies take advantage of that. For discreet events (each spin of the roulette wheel or each drawing of the prize bonds) previous events have zero impact.

This is why casinos display the history of the last 10 spins or so. They know that when people see that black has come up for the last 3 or 4 times, there will be an overweight betting on red - when another black is just as likely. That imbalance over time gives the house an edge.

Picking 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is just as likely to win the Lotto as any other combination. If you win the Lotto this week, you have the exact same probability of winning it next week.

Likewise, it doesn't matter if your Prize Bond numbers are in sequence or spread all over the place - you have the exact same probability of winning
 
Over the years I have had occasion to cash in my Prize Bond investments and later re-invest a number of times. I did not keep a record but it was my distinct impression that after each re-investment I had fairly frequent (if small) wins for a period of maybe 12 months or so, but then they always trailed off considerably. I know there is no basis in probability for this. Maybe it is a psychological distortion. Anyone with similar experiences or impressions?
 
100% agree with the above. My impression also, over the years of owning bonds.
I have 45K in three tranches for over a year and not even a sniff of a prize.

Time to cash in and reinvest.
 
SparkRite said:
100% agree with the above. My impression also, over the years of owning bonds.
I have 45K in three tranches for over a year and not even a sniff of a prize.

Time to cash in and reinvest.
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I reckon you should have had an average of 3 prizes. The probability of 0 prizes is 5%. Not impossible, but rather unlucky.

Maybe I am a gullible soul, but it seems to me to be a conspiracy theory of the utmost improbable that the draw would be fiddled to suit any constituency such as more recent entrants.

Having said that, my <1% run continued last Friday, so could it be there is a discrimination against the aristocracy? :oops:
 
EmmDee said:
Picking 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is just as likely to win the Lotto as any other combination. If you win the Lotto this week, you have the exact same probability of winning it next week.
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There is a slight complication with the Lotto if you are entering multiple sets of numbers. No individual set of numbers is more likely, but given match 4 & match 5 wins, it make sense to only change one digit between selections, as this increases the number of combinations you can cover. Not relevant to most entrants, but certainly exploited by syndicates who tried to "buy" a win.
 
EmmDee said:
This is why casinos display the history of the last 10 spins or so.
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I haven't been in a PaddyPower shop since early March but I was always bemused by their regular lotto and roulette plays. The screens "helpfully" keep the punters posted on the numbers that are "hot" and those which are "not". It smugly amuses me to reflect that I know better, but then I start to think "and so does PaddyPower". The display of this information can only be targeted at those who erroneously think that it does matter - are we not veering towards offences against the trade descriptions Act or some such deception?

Picking 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is just as likely to win the Lotto as any other combination. If you win the Lotto this week, you have the exact same probability of winning it next week.
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Absolutely, but the big further complication is that the chances of sharing are greatly influenced by your choice of numbers. Avoid birthdays. And avoid picking something like 1,2,3,4,5,6 Because there is likely to be maybe a dozen such guesses.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
Avoid birthdays.
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I've been thinking about that. If we imagine the populace consists of Birthday Suckers who chose their numbers from 1 to 31 and Smart Asses who chose their numbers from 32 to 47 there would have to be more than 100 times more of the former than the latter for my advice to be correct.

There is an Uncertainty Principle at work here. Because if you could somehow work out the least popular choice, for example if detailed stats were made available, the Smart Asses would make that the most popular choice:(
 
As a sort of addendum to my post above, in 2014 I had just shy of 100K 'invested'.
For the first six months or so hardly a Friday went by without a win of €50, the odd time 2 X €50.
Overall about €150 pm if I remember correctly, but I do know that these prizes started to dry up somewhat
as my 'luck' dwindled..........
Anyway I withdrew the lot as I needed the funds and last year stuck in the 45K.
Now I know they have been slowly, but surely, decreasing the number of prizes, but I have to admit I am
somewhat dismayed that my 'luck' has deserted me totally.
Only for bad luck I'd have none at all. :):)
 
Is there a way to register to purchase Prize Bonds Online? I can only see a downloadable form and I don't have access to a printer currently due to WFH and it being 2020. Perhaps the forms are available at the post office or somewhere?
 
First purchase AFAIK must be made via written forms and after validation subsequent purchases can be made online.

Forms are available at PO's.
 
I bought all mine online a few months back however, I already had a savings bond with them so they had all my details to hand.
 
SparkRite said:
As a sort of addendum to my post above, in 2014 I had just shy of 100K 'invested'.
For the first six months or so hardly a Friday went by without a win of €50, the odd time 2 X €50.
Overall about €150 pm if I remember correctly, but I do know that these prizes started to dry up somewhat
as my 'luck' dwindled..........
Anyway I withdrew the lot as I needed the funds and last year stuck in the 45K.
Now I know they have been slowly, but surely, decreasing the number of prizes, but I have to admit I am
somewhat dismayed that my 'luck' has deserted me totally.
Only for bad luck I'd have none at all. :):)
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The number of €50 prizes is a factor of the interest rate applying to Prize Bonds. In early 2015 the interest rate was 1.6%. Today it is .5%. So there has been a very significant reduction in the number of prizes available.
 
Freelance said:
The number of €50 prizes is a factor of the interest rate applying to Prize Bonds. In early 2015 the interest rate was 1.6%. Today it is .5%. So there has been a very significant reduction in the number of prizes available.
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I have just checked my winnings on a €50K investment.

2016 €400 (8*50)
2017 €300 (6*50)
2018 €100 (2*50)
2019 €150 (3*50)
2020 0000000 to date!
 
All, my mother gave me a prize bond (2 units) for £10 (pounds) from the 1960's I would say, asking me to get rid of it as she is clearing things out. So will get €12.50 I presume, but it struck me that this £10 would have been worth significantly more when it was purchased.
 
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