Prize Bonds are looking attractive alternatives to deposits

Navin Johnson said:
Lol
Thanks for the info...
I did feel the person on the call couldn't be bothered...Maybe having a bad day....
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So i rang the premium bonds people this am, took option 2, premium bonds, didn't mention that I was calling from Ireland, went through the whole process easy peasy the only potential issue was the uk bank account, but sure revolut solved that problem
thanks @Duke of Marmalade for the previous info.
 
I had Premium Bonds, purchased when living in the UK and attempted to buy more when I returned to Ireland but it was not permitted.

That was in the mid-1990s though so perhaps the rules have changed since then?
 
They're a bit confused about our status. They asked me was Dublin (my current residence) in the UK. I assured them it wasn't. However, my personal details have finished up as being "born in Belfast, Republic of Ireland" and my telephone number as +44 00353 xx xxxxxxx
NS&I said:
Tax details
City of birth
BELFAST
Country of birth
Republic of Ireland
Tax country
Republic of Ireland
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Sent off my proof of address today....credit card statement...

Clearly says Dublin, Ireland....

So I'll confirm...
 
Won £75 (3 x £25) in my first monthly Premium Bond draw. That's a run rate of 1.8% p.a. on my £50k which is ahead of my expected run rate in £25 wins of 1.2%.
The bad news is that I have had a really bad run on my weekly Prize Bond draw which I reckon has now passed the 1 in a 100 possibility. The problem is that each Friday it is odds on to extend the losing run - the law of averages does not mean that I am due a win
 
Speaking of which, statistically is it better to have different tranches of these? I know that they all have equal chances, but is there a secondary statistical point that a spread of numbers is better?
 
podgerodge said:
Speaking of which, statistically is it better to have different tranches of these? I know that they all have equal chances, but is there a secondary statistical point that a spread of numbers is better?
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I was thinking about that. PTSB will only let me spend €2500 online in total every day so I bought mine in tranches over the course of a couple of months. In total I have 27 bonds containing a spread of different number.
I will keep thread updated as my winnings continue to accumulate throughout the year
 
Thanks Duke. What about the wooly answer, don't they talk about stats with roulette colours and numbers and even/odd etc. If you 'divided' all bonds into tranches of whatever, wouldn't it be statistically arguable that the same tranches would be unlikely to come up more often than others. Happy for you to tell me I'm talking nonsense!
 
Roulette is a good example. Manque represents the numbers 1 to 18. Clearly a concentrated tranche. Odd represents 18 numbers spread evenly over the 36. Red is yet another "random" collection of 18 numbers. Imagine you have a running bet on Manque, Odd or Red. Your outlook is exactly the same. If offered the choice you would have no rational basis for making that choice.
The long run statistical distribution of any of these three is the same bell curve centred on 50% (ignoring zeroes). There is no secondary statistical differentiator. Put another way the Roulette Wheel doesn't care what order the numbers are displayed on the Roulette Table.
 
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But is there any bias in the selection system/ algorithm used by prize bonds. Creating a truly random selection process is hard.
 

This post should probably be split and put as a key post.
 
SPC100 said:
But is there any bias in the selection system/ algorithm used by prize bonds. Creating a truly random selection process is hard.
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Oh, I don't think so. And if there was some bias it is impossible to know whether it favours a concentrated exposure or a spread one.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
And if there was some bias it is impossible to know whether it favours a concentrated exposure or a spread one.
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I agree a bias is extremely unlikely. But I did previously suggest a method for investigating this:

 
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