Prize Bonds are looking attractive alternatives to deposits

Just an update on how my PBs have been doing. I've only won once in 2015 so far. In the 20 draws since the 12th September which was my first draw with my current batches:

100k batch - 11 x 50 euro prizes = 1.43%
75k batch - 5 x 50 euro prizes = 0.87%

Not TOO bad considering that in the Best Buys thread the highest 3 month or 6 month term deposit currently available is Ulster Bank's 6 month account paying 1.45% gross.

Should be said that the best 6 month rate from a bank would have been higher back on 12th September and would have beaten a 0.87% net return but not a 1.43% net return.

Also the PB "interest" rate has been cut since the 12th September so my return in the next 20 draws should be lower than I got from the previous 20.
 
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Won about €2,000 over the course of 2014. A decent return of lots of €50s.
Have not won a rasher since middle December 2014 !! Curious.
Out of curiosity did the changes to Prize Bonds cause people to cash in their bonds and do something else ?
 
postman pat said:
Nothing again today...Things seem really to have taking a turn for the worse.:(
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It's always possible you're just having a bad run. But I think, based on your early postings and reported win rate, that your prize bond holding is high enough to even out a lot of the bumps and give you a return close to the average. The unfortunate truth is that the average you can expect has dropped from 1.2% to 0.8% in the last 18 months. Just as your large holding protects you from erratic under-performance compared to the average, it also makes you less likely to substantially beat the current poor odds. It really doesn't make sense any more to be holding prize bonds versus the 1.5% (before tax) return you could be getting on, say, a 30 day notice account. Not allowing for the gambling urge, of course. ;)
 
I haven't won since October when it seemed I was winning something every week before that. Did someone speculate in this thread that new subscribers won more often than long term subscribers? Sounded like a conspiracy theory to me at the time but .........
 
Squonk said:
I haven't won since October when it seemed I was winning something every week before that. Did someone speculate in this thread that new subscribers won more often than long term subscribers? Sounded like a conspiracy theory to me at the time but .........
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I wasn't the one who speculated,but a new issue bond is more likely to be a winner than and old issue bond as most old issue bonds have been cashed, so there are more new issue bonds than old issue bonds in the draw.
 
PMU said:
I wasn't the one who speculated,but a new issue bond is more likely to be a winner than and old issue bond as most old issue bonds have been cashed, so there are more new issue bonds than old issue bonds in the draw.
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But I don't think that that is what Squonk is saying. If I understand correctly Squank is speculating that when you initially purchase your bonds they seem to be winners more often than when the age, even only by a few months.
In other words if I had bought a bond 50 years ago and one yesterday both should have the same odds of being a winner, but that does not appear to be the case.

And yes this was mentioned earlier in this thread and like Squonk I also dismissed it as rubbish, but not so sure now.........Hmmmmmm .

I know that reducing the prize fund by 25% has had a big impact on this though, but nevertheless.............Hmmmmmmm.
 
dub_nerd said:
It's always possible you're just having a bad run. But I think, based on your early postings and reported win rate, that your prize bond holding is high enough to even out a lot of the bumps and give you a return close to the average. The unfortunate truth is that the average you can expect has dropped from 1.2% to 0.8% in the last 18 months. Just as your large holding protects you from erratic under-performance compared to the average, it also makes you less likely to substantially beat the current poor odds. It really doesn't make sense any more to be holding prize bonds versus the 1.5% (before tax) return you could be getting on, say, a 30 day notice account. Not allowing for the gambling urge, of course. ;)
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True Dub_nerd,i rang prize bond company today to find out about selling my bonds,just got talking to the lady on the phone and I told her about my lack of winning lately etc,she replied they were getting a lot of calls about this of late,so we are not the only people noticing this.
Anyway i have decided to the sell,it takes about 5 to 10 days to receive your cheque.
 
I have two lots of circa €50k. When I first purchased the first lot I had a number of small wins. So far not enough to justify having them and on their anniversary I will cash them in.
I then purchased a second lot of €50k. The exact same thing happened. A run of €50 prizes and now nothing. I don't understand why the newer lot are winning but the older lot are not? I will also cash these in on their anniversary also.
I also have about €3k going back to the 1970's.......I never win anything on these. These are definitely going to be cashed in also.
 
Yes i think some eager journalist could look into prizebonds and how they pay out etc,I cant help think how the Irish Sweepstakes operated and what we found out after!
 
Grizzly said:
I have two lots of circa €50k. When I first purchased the first lot I had a number of small wins. So far not enough to justify having them and on their anniversary I will cash them in.
I then purchased a second lot of €50k. The exact same thing happened. A run of €50 prizes and now nothing. I don't understand why the newer lot are winning but the older lot are not? I will also cash these in on their anniversary also.
I also have about €3k going back to the 1970's.......I never win anything on these. These are definitely going to be cashed in also.
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Have you kept a thorough record of what you've won, like The Ghoul on this thread? I'd be happy to have a look over it and calculate whether you've had a suspicious run of bad luck. It's a relatively easy thing to calculate an average return, but calculating whether a particular winning or losing streak is out of the ordinary is much more difficult. With prize bonds, smaller amounts are more "idiosyncratic" in their behaviour. Your €3k, at current pay out rates should win on average once every two years. But several years, even a decade, without a win would not be enormously unlikely (which is why small amounts of PBs are a bad investment). Have you really gone forty years or so without a single win? That would be fairly remarkable. However, my current pet theory is that people don't keep a detailed record and only imagine a skewed distribution of wins. It's like your memory of a sunny summer has more to do with how often you went out to look at the sky than the actual sunshine record.
 
Hi Dub_nerd,
Just in regard to your theory that people dont keep records of their wins,in my case I log on to the prizebond website to check my numbers and there is a record of my wins and dates of wins ,and also can see when I last won etc. and the distances between wins of late is ever increasing as far as I can see.

all the best Pat
 
postman pat said:
Hi Dub_nerd,
Just in regard to your theory that people dont keep records of their wins,in my case I log on to the prizebond website to check my numbers and there is a record of my wins and dates of wins ,and also can see when I last won etc. and the distances between wins of late is ever increasing as far as I can see.

all the best Pat
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I didn't really mean you ... I know you were going toe to toe with The Ghoul to record your wins, which has been an interesting and useful experiment. I suppose the decreasing frequency of wins is what we'd expect to see, with the changes that have been implemented to the prize structure over the last 18 months. At this stage I would expect a €100k holding to win a €50 prize less than once every three weeks. Of course, that is only since the relatively recent changes took effect in November 2014, so it's unlikely you'll see that exact trend, but there's a reasonable chance of it averaging out in the year to next November.
 
I lodged €50k back in April. Was going very well until November. See below:


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